Jeopolitik Risklerin Türkiye'nin İhracatı Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 2013:Ç1-2024:Ç4 dönemi verileri kullanılarak jeopolitik risklerin Türkiye’nin ihracat performansı üzerindeki etkileri doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ARDL modelleri çerçevesinde analiz edilmiştir. Simetrik model sonuçlarına göre, ticaret ortaklarına ilişkin jeopolitik risklerdeki artışlar uzun vadede ihracatı azaltırken, Türkiye’ye özgü jeopolitik risklerin ihracat üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi tespit edilmemiştir. Asimetrik model sonuçları, risk artışlarının istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığını, buna karşılık risk azalışlarının ihracatı artırıcı yönde etkide bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, ticaret ortağı ülkelerdeki ekonomik büyümenin ihracatı desteklediği ve reel döviz kuru ile ihracat arasında negatif yönlü bir ilişkinin bulunduğu belirlenmiştir. Jeopolitik risklerin olası olumsuz etkilerini azaltmak amacıyla Türkiye’nin uluslararası ortaklıklarını güçlendirmesi, rekabet gücünü artırmak için dijitalleşme ve yeşil dönüşüme uyum sürecini hızlandırması ve yüksek katma değerli üretime yönelmesi büyük önem taşımaktadır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat
• Döviz Kuru
• Dış Talep
• Jeopolitik Risk
• ARDL

The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Türkiye’s Export

Öz

In this study, the impact of geopolitical risks on Türkiye’s export performance were analyzed within the framework of linear and nonlinear ARDL models, using data from the period 2013:Q1 to 2024:Q4. The symmetric model results indicate that increases in geopolitical risks related to trading partners reduce exports in the long run, while Türkiye-specific geopolitical risks have no statistically significant effect. The findings of the asymmetric model indicate that increases in risk have no statistically significant effect, whereas decreases in risk are associated with higher exports. Furthermore, economic growth in trading partner countries supports exports, whereas the real exchange rate is found to have a negative relationship with exports. To mitigate the potential negative effects of geopolitical risks, it is crucial for Türkiye to strengthen its international partnerships, accelerate its adaptation to digitalization and green transformation to increase its competitiveness, and shift towards high value-added production. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exports
• Exchange Rate
• External Demand
• Geopolitical Risk
• ARDL

Kaynakça

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