Jeopolitik Risklerin Türkiye'nin İhracat Performansı Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1, 42 - 58, 27.03.2026

Ferdi Akpiliç

https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.1742590

https://izlik.org/JA36KC86FU

Öz

Bu çalışmada, jeopolitik risklerin Türkiye’nin ihracatı üzerindeki etkisi, 2013:Ç1–2024:Ç4 dönemi için simetrik ve asimetrik ARDL modelleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, hem Türkiye’ye özgü hem de ticaret ortaklarına ilişkin jeopolitik risklerdeki artış ve azalışların ihracat üzerinde asimetrik etkiler yarattığını ortaya koymaktadır. Asimetrik model sonuçlarına göre, risk artışlarının ihracat üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmazken, risklerin azaldığı dönemlerde ihracatın desteklendiği tespit edilmiştir. Jeopolitik risklerin doğurabileceği olumsuz etkileri sınırlamak adına, Türkiye'nin uluslararası iş birliklerini güçlendirmesi, rekabetçiliğini artırmak amacıyla dijitalleşme ve yeşil dönüşüm süreçlerine uyumunu hızlandırması ve yüksek katma değerli üretime yönelmesi önem arz etmektedir. Ayrıca, belirsizliklerin azaldığı ve çözüm süreçlerinin öne çıktığı dönemlerde, Türkiye’nin bu toparlanma ortamlarından daha fazla fayda sağlayabilmesi için daha aktif ve stratejik dış politika araçlarını benimsemesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat , Döviz Kuru , Dış Talep , Jeopolitik Risk , ARDL

The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Türkiye’s Export Performance

https://izlik.org/JA36KC86FU

Öz

In this study, the impact of geopolitical risks on Türkiye’s exports was analyzed for the period 2013Q1–2024Q4 using both symmetric and asymmetric ARDL models. The findings reveal that increases and decreases in geopolitical risks—both country-specific and related to Türkiye’s trade partners—have asymmetric effects on exports. According to the results of the asymmetric models, while increases in risk do not have a statistically significant effect on exports, periods of declining risk are associated with a boost in export performance. To mitigate the potential adverse effects of geopolitical risks, it is crucial for Turkey to strengthen its international partnerships, accelerate its adaptation to digitalization and the green transition to enhance competitiveness, and shift toward high value-added production. Furthermore, during periods characterized by reduced uncertainty and the prominence of conflict resolution processes, it becomes increasingly important for Turkey to adopt more active and strategic foreign policy instruments in order to benefit more effectively from these recovery phases.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exports , Exchange Rate , External Demand , Geopolitical Risk , ARDL

Kaynakça

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