IMPACT OF TOURISM INCENTIVES AND GEOPOLITICAL RISK ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Öz

The aim of this study is to determine the effects of tourism revenue, geopolitical risks, gross fixed capital formation, and tourism incentives on economic growth in Turkey. For this purpose, the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration has been employed on data covering the 1985–2019 period. According to the empirical findings, a long-term equilibrium relationship has been found among the variables. While tourism revenues and gross fixed capital formation affects economic growth positively, geopolitical risks affect it negatively. Tourism incentives did not have a statistically significant effect on economic growth. Accordingly, it would be beneficial to encourage the simplification of the legal scope of tourism incentives in Turkey. In addition, it can be stated that policies aimed at reducing geopolitical risks would support economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• Geopolitical Risk
• Tourism
• Tourism Incentives
• Turkish Economy

TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de turizm gelirlerinin, jeopolitik riskin, gayrisafi sabit sermaye yatırımlarının ve turizm teşviklerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini tespit etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 1985-2019 dönemi verileri için ARDL sınır testi ile eşbütünleşme analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir denge ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Turizm gelirleri ve sermaye yatırımları ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif etkilerken, jeopolitik riskin negatif etkilediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Turizm teşviklerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiki anlamlılığa sahip herhangi bir etkisi tespit edilememiştir. Bu bulgulara göre, Türkiye’nin turizm teşviklerinin yasal kapsamı genişletilip sadeleştirilmesinin yararlı olacağı düşünülmektedir. Ayrıca, jeopolitik risklerin azaltılmasına yönelik politikaların ekonomik büyümeyi destekleyeceği ifade edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Jeopolitik Risk
• Turizm
• Turizm Teşvikleri
• Türkiye Ekonomisi

Kaynakça

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