The Effect of FED Interest Rate Decisions on Stocks: S&P 500 Financials Analysis

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1, 1 - 17, 25.03.2024

Faruk Temel , Hidayet Güneş

https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.1391464

Cited By: 2

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine reactions of the stocks in the S&P 500 Financial Index to the interest rate decisions of the FED by using the event study method. In the study, in which 4 events with sufficient forecast periods among the interest rate changes between 2015 and 2023 were examined for 12 event windows, and it was determined that abnormal returns were mostly not statistically significant. Due to the limited statistically significant positive or negative abnormal returns, efficiency can be attributed to the S&P 500. Given the efficiency of the market, investors may not consistently beat the market, so they can adopt a passive investment strategy by turning to index funds or exchange-traded funds. In addition, investors can reduce the risk of their investments through portfolio diversification. The study, which provides a comprehensive analysis, fills an important gap in the literature.

Anahtar Kelimeler

FED Interest Rate Decisions, S&P 500 Financials, Event Study

FED Faiz Kararlarının Hisse Senetlerine Etkisi: S&P 500 Financials Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı S&P 500 Financials Endeksindeki hisse senetlerinin, FED’in faiz kararlarına karşı verdiği tepkilerin olay çalışması yöntemi ile incelenmesidir. 2015-2023 yılları arası faiz değişikliklerinden, yeterli tahmin periyoduna sahip 4 olayın 12 olay penceresi için incelendiği çalışmada anormal getirilerin çoğunlukla istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. İstatistiksel olarak anlamlı pozitif ya da negatif anormal getirinin sınırlı olması nedeniyle S&P 500 için etkinlikten söz edilebilmektedir. Piyasanın etkinliği nedeniyle yatırımcılar piyasayı sürekli yenemeyeceği için endeks fonlarına ya da borsa yatırım fonlarına yönelerek pasif yatırım stratejisi izleyebilirler. Ayrıca yatırımcılar portföy çeşitlendirmesi ile yatırımlarının riskini azaltabilirler. Kapsamlı analizin yapıldığı çalışma, literatürdeki önemli bir boşluğu doldurmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

FED Faiz Kararları, S&P 500 Financials, Olay Çalışması

Kaynakça

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