DIŞ TİCARET VE EKONOMİK ENTEGRASYON İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE'NİN AB VE BRICS AÇISINDAN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Öz

Ticaret politikaları, ülkelerin refahının ve ekonomik istikrarının sağlanmasında önemli bir faktördür. Dış ticaretin makro ve mikro planları belirlemedeki gücünün ülkeleri birlikte hareket etmeye ve ekonomik işbirliğine dayalı entegrasyonlar kurmaya zorladığı görülmektedir. Türkiye, ekonomik entegrasyonların sağladığı avantajlardan yararlanmak için Avrupa Birliği'ne (AB) üye olmak istemesine rağmen bugüne kadar bu isteğini gerçekleştirememiş ve 2024 yılından itibaren entegrasyon politikasını kademeli olarak çeşitlendirme kararı almıştır. Bu kararların başında BRICS ile ilişkilerini geliştirerek üyelik başvurusunda bulunma isteği gösterilebilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1985-2023 dönemi için Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu (GMM) kullanarak Türkiye'nin AB ve BRICS ile olan dış ticaretinin Türkiye'nin ekonomik büyümesine katkısını belirlemektir. Analiz sonucunda, Türkiye'nin her iki entegrasyonla olan dış ticaretinin Türkiye'nin ekonomik büyümesi üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğu, ancak BRICS üyesi ülkelerle olan dış ticaretin Türkiye üzerinde AB ülkelerine göre daha güçlü bir etkiye sahip olduğu bulunmuştur

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türkiye
• İhracat
• İthalat
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• AB
• BRICS

FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION RELATIONSHIP: EVALUATION OF TURKEY IN TERMS OF EU AND BRICS

Abstract

Trade policies are important factors in ensuring the welfare and economic stability of countries. It is seen that the power of foreign trade in determining macro and micro plans forces countries to act together and establish integrations based on economic cooperation. Although Turkey wants to become a member of the European Union (EU) to take advantage of the advantages provided by economic integrations, it has not been able to realise this desire until today and has decided to gradually diversify its integration policy as of 2024. At the beginning of these decisions, the desire to apply for membership by improving its relations with BRICS can be shown. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution of foreign trade between Turkey and the EU and BRICS to Turkey's economic growth by using the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) for the period between 1985 and 2023. As a result of the analysis, it is found that Turkey's foreign trade with both integrations has a positive and significant effect on Turkey's economic growth, but foreign trade with BRICS member countries has a stronger effect on Turkey than EU countries

Keywords

• Turkey
• Exports
• Imports
• Economic Growth
• EU
• BRICS

Kaynakça

1. Acemoglu, D. & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. Crown Business.
2. Aktaş, C. (2009), “Causality Analysis between Turkey’s Export, Import and Economic Growth”, Kocaeli University Journal of Institute of Social Sciences, (2); 35-47.
3. Aslantas, M. (2024). Yetenek Yönetimi İle Performans Arasındaki İlişki Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(1), 466-499.
4. Aslantaş, M. (2024). The Effect Of Talent Management Strategies On Work Engagement In The Finance Sector: A Study On Bank Employees. Avrasya Sosyal Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(2), 290-317
5. Ay, A.t, Erdoğan, Savaş 6 Mucuk, M. (2004), “A Causality Test on Export-led Growth in Turkey (1980-2003)” Selcuk University, Karaman Journal of Economics and Business Administration, (1); 107-117.
6. Aytaç, A. & Akduğan, U. (2012). A Causality Analysis on Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey 2001-2011. Trakya University Journal of Social Sciences, 14(2), 55-70.
7. Baldwin, R. E. (2004). Economic Integration and Global Trade. Edward Elgar Publishing.
8. Battal, T., & Akan, E. (2019). Evaluation of BRICS Countries and Turkey within the Framework of Performance and Potential Criteria. Beykoz Academy Journal, 7(1), 1-35. https://doi.org/10.14514/BYK.m.26515393.2019.7/1.1-35

9. Baltagi, B.H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, West Sussex, England: John Wiley and Sons.
10. Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data (4th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
11. BBC(2024,10 November) Foreign Minister Fidan’s statement on BRICS membership: If we had EU membership, perhaps we would not be in this quest https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/cy54v7rxledo
12. Berthelon, M., (2004), “Growth Effects of Regional Integration Agreements,” Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No: 278, pp: 1-40.
13. Brave New Europe. (2024, 11 November). Why does Turkey want to join BRICS - and what will the trade-offs be? Brave New Europe. https://blogs.
14. Bruno,R., Campos, N., Estrin, S. & Tian, M (2017) Economic Integration, Foreign Investment and International Trade: The Effects of Membership of the European Union, CEP Discussion Paper No 1518 November 2017
15. Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
16. Elbeydi, K.R.M, Hamuda, A.M. & Gazda, V. (2010). The relationship between export and economic growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 17(1/542), 69-76.
17. European Commission. (2024). EU-Turkey economic relations and trade. European Commission Report.
18. Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric Analysis (7th ed.). Pearson Education.
19. Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. MIT Press.
20. Gül, E. & Kamacı, A. (2012), “The Effects of Foreign Trade on Growth: A Panel Analysis”, International Journal of Alanya Business Faculty, (3); 81-89.
21. Güney, T. (2017). The Impact of Economic Freedom Economic Growth in Turkey and BRICS Countries, International Review of Economics and Management, Volume 5, No. 2, pp. 30-47.
22. Hameed, I., Iqbal, A. & Devi, K., Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth of Pakistan (July 1, 2012). European Journal of Social Sciences, 32 (3), 453-460, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2136602
23. Hansen, L. P. (1982). Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 50(4), 1029-1054.
24. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
25. Korkmaz, T., Çevik, E. İ. & Birkan, E. (2010), “The Effect of Financial Openness on Economic Growth and Financial Crises: The Case of Turkey” Journal of Yasar University, 17 (5); 2821-2831.
26. Kutlay, M. (2024). Turkey and the shifting global economic order. Springer Publications.
27. Krugman, P. (1991). Geography and Trade. MIT Press.
28. Mayes, D.G (1978) The Effect Of Economic Integration on Trade, Journal of Common Market Studies, Volume XVII No:1 September 1978
29. Mercan, M., Kitesashvili, D., Aslantas, M. (2023). Effect of Financial Literacy on Financial Well-Being in Georgia. Journal of Business, Vol. 12 No. 2
30. Motta, M. & Norman, G. (1996) Does Economic Integration Cause Foreign Direct Investment?, International Economic Review , Nov., 1996, Vol. 37, No. 4 (Nov., 1996), pp. 757783
31. Rodrik, D. (1998). The New Global Economy and Developing Countries: Making Openness Work. Overseas Development Council.
32. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71-S102.
33. Sachs, J. D. & Warner, A. M. (1995). Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 5398.
34. Shahbaz, M., Azeem, P. & Ahmad, K. (2011), “Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence” MPRA, Paper No: 33617.
35. Shihab, R. A., Soufan, T., & Abdul-Khaliq, S. (2014). The causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Jordan. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 5(3), 302-308.
36. SWP Berlin. (2024). EU-Turkey economic relations in the era of geo-economic fragmentation. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik.
37. Şahin, D. & Durmuş, S. (2018). Analysing the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Turkey. Journal of International Social Research, 11(60).
38. Uçan, O. & Koçak, E. (2014). The Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Turkey. Journal of Niğde University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 7(2), 51.
39. Velde, D. W., (2008), “Regional Integration, Growth and Convergence, Analytical Techniques and Preliminary Results,” Journal of Economic Integration, 26(1), pp: 1-28.
40. Viner, J. (1950). The Customs Union Issue. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
41. Yılmazer, M. (2010) Foreign Direct Investments, Foreign Trade and Economic Growth Relationship: An Essay on Turkey, Celal Bayar University S.B.E., Year: 2010 Volume :8 Issue :1