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LATİN AMERİKA ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGESİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİNİN AMPİRİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 10, 115 - 132, 29.10.2020

Öz

Günümüzde cari işlemler dengesinin sürdürülebilirliği pek çok ülke için önemli bir iktisadi sorun teşkil etmektedir. Karar vericiler tarafından, cari işlemler dengesinin sürdürülebilirliği için ekonomi politikaları yoğun bir şekilde kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, seçilmiş Latin Amerika ülkeleri (Brezilya, Meksika, Şili, Arjantin, Uruguay, Kolombiya, Peru, Ekvator) 1996-2019 dönemi için cari işlemler dengesinin iktisadi açıdan sürdürülebilirliği ampirik olarak incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda Latin Amerika ülkeleri için cari işlemler dengesinin sürdürülebilir olduğu sonucunda ulaşılmıştır. Ülkelerin, cari işlemler dengesi açığı vermelerine karşın uygun ekonomi politikaları ile cari işlemler dengesi açığının sürdürülebilir bir patikada tutabilmeleri bu çalışmada gözlemlenmiştir.

Teşekkür

Sürekli değerli bilgiler sunan derginizin bu sayısında yayınlanmak üzere, makalemin incelenmesini saygılarımla bilgilerinize arz ederim.

Kaynakça

  • Ahtiala, P. (1994). A Synthesis of the Keynesian and Monetarist Approaches to the Short-run Theory of the Balance of Payments. Journal of Economic Integration, 471-488.
  • Ardalan, K. (2005). The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments: A Taxonomy with a Comprehensive Reference to the Literature. Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 6(3), 39.
  • Coghlan, R. (1978). Alternative portfolio approaches to balance of payments adjustment. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 25(1), 13-28.
  • Donoso, V., & Martin, V. (2014). Current account sustainability in Latin America. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 23(5), 735-753.
  • Erkılıç, S. (2006), “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri”, T.C. Merkez Bankası, İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü, Uzmanlık Yeterlik Tezi, Ankara.
  • Frenkel, J. A., & Razin, A. (1988). Spending, Taxes, and Deficits: International-Intertemporal Approach. International Finance Section, Department of Economics, Princeton University.
  • Frenkel, J. A., Gylfason, T., & Helliwell, J. F. (1980). A synthesis of monetary and Keynesian approaches to short-run balance-of-payments theory. The Economic Journal, 90(359), 582-592.
  • Friedman, M. (1970). A theoretical framework for monetary analysis. journal of Political Economy, 78(2), 193-238.
  • Hakkio, C. S., & Rush, M. (1991). Is the budget deficit “too large?”. Economic inquiry, 29(3), 429-445.
  • Helliwell, J. F. (1978). The balance of payments: a survey of Harry Johnson's contributions. Canadian Journal of Economics, S55-S86.
  • Holmes, M. J. (2006). Do Latin American Countries Have an Incentive to Default on Their External Debts?: A Perspective Based on Long-Run Current Account Behavior. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 42(1), 33-49.
  • Husein, J., & Pier, C. (2019). Long-run sustainability of current account balance: evidence from twenty north and Latin American economies. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 19(2), 75-90.
  • Husted, S. (1992). The emerging U.S. current account deficit in the 1980s: A cointegration analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(1), 159– 166.
  • Johnson, H. G. (1972). The monetary approach to balance-of-payments theory. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 1555-1572.
  • Milesi-Ferrett, G. M., & Razin, A. (1996). Current account sustainability: selected East Asian and Latin American experiences (No. w5791). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Mundell, R. (2001). On the history of the Mundell–Fleming model. Keynote speech. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers Special, 47.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1986). Speculative attack and the external constraint in a maximizing model of the balance of payments. Canadian Journal of Economics, 1-22.
  • Obstfeld, M. (2012). Does the current account still matter?. American Economic Review, 102(3), 1-23.
  • Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1995). The intertemporal approach to the current account. Handbook of international economics, 3, 1731-1799.
  • Ordoñez‐Callamand, D., Melo‐Velandia, L. F., & Valencia‐Arana, O. M. (2018). Asymmetric behaviour of current account sustainability in Latin America. International Finance, 21(1), 2-22.
  • Ordonez-Callamand, D., Melo-Velandia, L. F., Valencia-Arana, O. M., & Melo-Velandia, L. F. (2017). Current account sustainability in Latin America considering nonlinearities. Borradores de Economía; No. 987.
  • Polak, J. J., & Plessner, Y. (2002). The two monetary approaches to the balance of payments: Keynesian and Johnsonian. In The open economy macromodel: past, present and future (pp. 19-47). Springer, Boston, MA.
  • Roubini, N., & Wachtel, P. (1999). Current-account sustainability in transition economies. In Balance of payments, exchange rates, and competitiveness in transition economies (pp. 19-93). Springer, Boston, MA.
  • Sargent, T. J., & Wallace, N. (1984). Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. In Monetarism in the United Kingdom (pp. 15-41). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Sarno, L., & Taylor, M. P. (1998). Real exchange rates under the recent float: unequivocal evidence of mean reversion. Economics Letters, 60(2), 131-137.
  • Stojkov, A. (2006). A survey of competing theoretical approaches to current account determination. CEA Journal of Economics, 1(1). Taylor, A. M. (2002). A century of current account dynamics. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(6), 725-748.
  • Trehan, B., & Walsh, C. E. (1991). Testing intertemporal budget constraints: Theory and applications to US federal budget and current account deficits. Journal of Money, Credit and banking, 23(2), 206-223.
  • Whitman, M. V., Branson, W. H., Fand, D. I., Krause, L. B., & Salant, W. S. (1975). Global monetarism and the monetary approach to the balance of payments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 491-555.

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT SUSTAINABILITY IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 10, 115 - 132, 29.10.2020

Öz

Today, the sustainability of the current account balance poses an important economic problem for many countries. Economic policies are used intensively by decision makers for the sustainability of the current account balance. In this study, the economic sustainability of the current account balance for the 1996-2019 period in selected Latin American countries (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador) was empirically examined. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the current account balance is sustainable for Latin American countries. In this study, it is observed that countries can keep the current account deficit in a sustainable path with appropriate economic policies, despite the current account deficit.

Kaynakça

  • Ahtiala, P. (1994). A Synthesis of the Keynesian and Monetarist Approaches to the Short-run Theory of the Balance of Payments. Journal of Economic Integration, 471-488.
  • Ardalan, K. (2005). The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments: A Taxonomy with a Comprehensive Reference to the Literature. Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 6(3), 39.
  • Coghlan, R. (1978). Alternative portfolio approaches to balance of payments adjustment. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 25(1), 13-28.
  • Donoso, V., & Martin, V. (2014). Current account sustainability in Latin America. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 23(5), 735-753.
  • Erkılıç, S. (2006), “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri”, T.C. Merkez Bankası, İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü, Uzmanlık Yeterlik Tezi, Ankara.
  • Frenkel, J. A., & Razin, A. (1988). Spending, Taxes, and Deficits: International-Intertemporal Approach. International Finance Section, Department of Economics, Princeton University.
  • Frenkel, J. A., Gylfason, T., & Helliwell, J. F. (1980). A synthesis of monetary and Keynesian approaches to short-run balance-of-payments theory. The Economic Journal, 90(359), 582-592.
  • Friedman, M. (1970). A theoretical framework for monetary analysis. journal of Political Economy, 78(2), 193-238.
  • Hakkio, C. S., & Rush, M. (1991). Is the budget deficit “too large?”. Economic inquiry, 29(3), 429-445.
  • Helliwell, J. F. (1978). The balance of payments: a survey of Harry Johnson's contributions. Canadian Journal of Economics, S55-S86.
  • Holmes, M. J. (2006). Do Latin American Countries Have an Incentive to Default on Their External Debts?: A Perspective Based on Long-Run Current Account Behavior. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 42(1), 33-49.
  • Husein, J., & Pier, C. (2019). Long-run sustainability of current account balance: evidence from twenty north and Latin American economies. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 19(2), 75-90.
  • Husted, S. (1992). The emerging U.S. current account deficit in the 1980s: A cointegration analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(1), 159– 166.
  • Johnson, H. G. (1972). The monetary approach to balance-of-payments theory. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 1555-1572.
  • Milesi-Ferrett, G. M., & Razin, A. (1996). Current account sustainability: selected East Asian and Latin American experiences (No. w5791). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Mundell, R. (2001). On the history of the Mundell–Fleming model. Keynote speech. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers Special, 47.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1986). Speculative attack and the external constraint in a maximizing model of the balance of payments. Canadian Journal of Economics, 1-22.
  • Obstfeld, M. (2012). Does the current account still matter?. American Economic Review, 102(3), 1-23.
  • Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1995). The intertemporal approach to the current account. Handbook of international economics, 3, 1731-1799.
  • Ordoñez‐Callamand, D., Melo‐Velandia, L. F., & Valencia‐Arana, O. M. (2018). Asymmetric behaviour of current account sustainability in Latin America. International Finance, 21(1), 2-22.
  • Ordonez-Callamand, D., Melo-Velandia, L. F., Valencia-Arana, O. M., & Melo-Velandia, L. F. (2017). Current account sustainability in Latin America considering nonlinearities. Borradores de Economía; No. 987.
  • Polak, J. J., & Plessner, Y. (2002). The two monetary approaches to the balance of payments: Keynesian and Johnsonian. In The open economy macromodel: past, present and future (pp. 19-47). Springer, Boston, MA.
  • Roubini, N., & Wachtel, P. (1999). Current-account sustainability in transition economies. In Balance of payments, exchange rates, and competitiveness in transition economies (pp. 19-93). Springer, Boston, MA.
  • Sargent, T. J., & Wallace, N. (1984). Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. In Monetarism in the United Kingdom (pp. 15-41). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Sarno, L., & Taylor, M. P. (1998). Real exchange rates under the recent float: unequivocal evidence of mean reversion. Economics Letters, 60(2), 131-137.
  • Stojkov, A. (2006). A survey of competing theoretical approaches to current account determination. CEA Journal of Economics, 1(1). Taylor, A. M. (2002). A century of current account dynamics. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(6), 725-748.
  • Trehan, B., & Walsh, C. E. (1991). Testing intertemporal budget constraints: Theory and applications to US federal budget and current account deficits. Journal of Money, Credit and banking, 23(2), 206-223.
  • Whitman, M. V., Branson, W. H., Fand, D. I., Krause, L. B., & Salant, W. S. (1975). Global monetarism and the monetary approach to the balance of payments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 491-555.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Elmas Demircioğlu Karabıyık 0000-0002-6412-6003

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Ekim 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 10

Kaynak Göster

APA Demircioğlu Karabıyık, E. (2020). LATİN AMERİKA ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGESİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİNİN AMPİRİK ANALİZİ. Avrasya Sosyal Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(10), 115-132.