THE CONCEPT OF BORROWING: AN APPLICATION FOR TÜRKIYE, COVERING THE TERM OF 1975-2020

Abstract

Worldwide, debt and interest on debt continue to increase in terms of both the amount and the ratio of national income. While borrowing should be used for investment purposes or preferred in bad times, it is seen that it is used intensely for consumption purposes, including the good periods of the economy, as seen before the pandemic. In this context, it is important to identify the variables that cause the debt growth and to develop policies to keep the debt growth at a moderate level. In this article, the growth of Turkey's external debt stock is modeled with the triple deficit concept and the cointegration method using the relevant data for the 1975-2020 period. It has been observed that the biggest significant positive effect on the total debt is from the difference of the reserve.

Keywords

• Borrowing
• budget
• debt
• triple deficit

BORÇLANMA KAVRAMI: 1976-2022 DÖNEMİNİ KAPSAYAN TÜRKİYE İÇİN BİR UYGULAMA

Öz

Dünya genelinde borç ile borç faizlerinin hem miktarı hem de milli gelire oranı artmaya devam etmektedir. Borçlanmanın yatırım amaçlı kullanılması veya kötü zamanlarda tercih edilmesi gerekirken, pandemi öncesinde de görüldüğü üzere ekonominin iyi dönemleri de dâhil olmak üzere tüketim amaçlı yoğun olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda borç artışına neden olan değişkenlerin tespit edilmesi ve borç büyümesinin ılımlı düzeyde tutulmasına yönelik politikaların geliştirilmesi önem taşımaktadır. Bu makalede, Türkiye'nin dış borç stokunun büyümesi, 1976-2022 dönemine ilişkin veriler kullanılarak üçlü açık kavramı ve eş bütünleşme yöntemiyle modellenmiştir. Yapılan ampirik çalışmada, toplam borç üzerindeki en büyük pozitif etkinin rezerv farkından kaynaklandığı görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Borçlanma
• bütçe
• borç
• üçüz açık

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