Assessing China's Hegemonic Ambitions Amidst the Eastward Shift of Global Power: An Analysis of Offensive Realism and Economic Growth

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 30, 337 - 360, 29.12.2024

Mevlan Tanrikut

https://doi.org/10.31455/asya.1568472

Öz

Rising of China and gradual decline of United States (US) influence, coupled with the eastward shift of power has led some scholars to suggest that China will replace hegemonic position of the US. China-U. S rivalry is not a new scholarly topic. This study contributes to the existing scholarship on China-US competition by providing a comparative analysis of hegemonic pathways, comparing its current economic and geopolitical situation with the historical trajectory of US hegemony and offering insights into the limitations of China's protentional to be regional hegemon. Anchored on Mearsheimer’s hypothesis, which posits that regional hegemony is a prerequisite for global hegemony, and the analysis of the relations between economic superiority and hegemony, this study seeks to answer whether China can become a regional hegemon amidst eastward shift of power and the ongoing rivalry with the US. It frames China's challenge to US hegemony as an attempt to take a hegemonic position within the existing order, rather than advocating for the new. Through qualitative and quantitative analyses this research suggests that while China may lessen US influence but won't replace US hegemony. Key reasons include are:1) The US, along with its allies, aims to limit China's influence, and China’s inability to exclude US influence in Asia; 2) The highest GDP does not guarantee hegemony; 3) Asia’s traditional multipolarity.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hegemony, US-China rivalry, Offensive Realism, GDP, Multipolarity

Küresel Gücün Doğuya Kayması Ortamında Çin'in Hegemonik Hedeflerinin Değerlendirilmesi: Saldırgan Realizm ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Bir Analiz

Öz

Çin'in küresel arenadaki yükselişi ve ABD'nin etkisinin kademeli olarak azalması, gücün doğuya kaydığı bu süreçte bazı akademisyenleri, Çin'in ABD'nin hegemonik konumunu devralabileceğini öne sürmeye yöneltmiştir. Çin-ABD rekabeti akademik çalışmalar açısından yeni bir konu olmasa da bu çalışma, hegemonik güç yollarının karşılaştırmalı bir analizini yaparak ve Çin’in mevcut ekonomik ve jeopolitik konumunu ABD hegemonyasının tarihsel gelişim çizgisiyle karşılaştırarak bu literatüre katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, Mearsheimer'ın bölgesel hegemonyanın küresel hegemonya için bir ön koşul olduğu hipotezini ve ekonomik üstünlük ile hegemonya arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Gücün doğuya kayması ve ABD ile süregelen rekabet ortamında, Çin'in bölgesel bir hegemon olup olamayacağı sorusuna odaklanmaktadır. Ayrıca, Çin'in ABD hegemonyasına meydan okumasını, mevcut küresel düzeni değiştirmek yerine, bu düzen içinde hegemonik bir pozisyon elde etme girişimi olarak çerçevelemektedir. Nitel ve nicel analizler sonucunda, bu çalışma Çin’in ABD etkisini zayıflatabileceği ancak ABD hegemonyasının yerini alamayacağı sonucuna varmaktadır. Bu sonuca varılmasındaki temel nedenler şunlardır: 1) ABD, Çin'in etkisini sınırlama politikası yürütmektedir ve Çin Asya'daki ABD etkisini engellemek için yeterli güce sahip değildir; 2) Yüksek GSYİH, tek başına hegemonyayı garanti etmemektedir; 3) Asya'nın geleneksel çok kutuplu yapısı Çin’in bölgedeki hegemonya inşasını zorlaştırmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hegemonya, ABD–Çin Rekabeti, Saldırgan Realizm, GSYİH, Çok Kutupluluk

Kaynakça

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