ÇİN'İN KÜRESEL EKONOMİ VİZYONU VE BORÇ TUZAĞI SORUNU: KUŞAK VE YOL İNİSİYATİFİNİN BORÇ BAĞIMLILIĞI AÇISINDAN ANALİZİ

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 1 - 20, 26.06.2024

Mustafa Yıldıran , Mustafa Alpin Gülşen

https://doi.org/10.58640/asyar.1450451

Öz

Bu çalışma Kuşak ve Yol İnisiyatifi ülkeleri için 2011-2019 döneminde Çin’e olan borç bağımlılığının düzeyini araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla 65 İnisiyatif ülkesine ait 5 farklı borç oranı belirlenmiş ve borç bağımlılığı (veya tuzağı) endeksi geliştirilmiştir. Endeks kriterlerinin tutarlılığı, dinamik ve statik panel veri analizi ile test edilmiştir. Bulgulara göre 29 İnisiyatif ülkesinin dış borç ödeme kapasitesinde ihracatın ve ithalatın katkısı vardır. Çin’den yapılan ithalat/GSYH oranındaki artış büyümeyi %0,22; Çin’e yapılan ihracat/GSYH oranındaki artış büyümeyi %0,37 artırmaktadır. Ancak Çin’e olan dış borç yükündeki artış, büyümeyi %0,64 azaltmaktadır. Ek olarak Çin’e olan borç stokunun toplam borçlarındaki oranındaki artış, büyümeyi %0,36 negatif etkilemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kuşak ve Yol İnisiyatifi, Borç Tuzağı, Panel Analiz, Sabit Etkiler, Dinamik Sistem GMM

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