Tourism and economic growth relationship in developing countries: Dynamic panel data analysis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse whether there is a positive relationship between tourism sector and economic growth in the long run using dynamic panel data analysis in devoloping countries. A panel data set was set up for 21 countries, including Turkey between 1998-2005 and two steps analysis have been done. The results of the study shows that there is a positive relationship between tourism and economic growth in developing countries and %1 increase in toruism incomes had led to %2.825 economic growth.

Keywords

• economic growth,tourism,developing countries,tourism sector,dynamic panel data analysis,econometric analysis,gmm system estimation,GMM estimation

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, dinamik panel veri analizi yöntemi kullanarak GOÜ turizm sektörü ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde herhangi bir pozitif ilişkinin olup olmadığını analiz etmektir. Bu bağlamda; Türkiye'nin de içerisinde yer aldığı gelişmekte olan 21 ülke için 1998–2005 dönemini kapsayan bir panel veri seti oluşturulmuş ve İki Aşamalı GMM-Sistem analizi yapılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda GOÜ'ler açısından turizm ve ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmiş, turizm gelirlerindeki %1'lik bir artışın uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde %2,825'lik bir artışa yol açtığı saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ekonomik büyüme,turizm,gelişmekte olan ülkeler,turizm sektörü,dinamik panel veri analizi,ekonometrik analizler,gmm sistem kestirimi,GMM kestirimi

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