Kimya fabrikalarında ve kümelerinde domino etkilerinin tarihsel bakış açısı ile incelenmesi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 52 - 62, 12.11.2021

Orkun Dalyan Mehmet Pişkin

Öz

1970'lerde dünyanın ilgisini çeken Batı ülkelerindeki büyük kazalar, kimya ve petrokimya sektörlerinde ve kümelerinde iç ve dış domino etkilerine yönelik araştırmalar için başlangıç noktasıdır. Başlangıçta, bu araştırmalar devlet kurumları ve hükümetle ilgili araştırma merkezleri tarafından yayınlandı. 1970'lerde ve 1980'lerde artan nicel risk analizleri ve Hollanda'da basılan “renkli kitaplar”, domino etkilerinin nicelleştirilmesinde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. İkinci Avrupa Seveso Direktifi, 1990'ların ortalarından sonra konuyla ilgili akademik yayınların ve domino etkileri üzerine bilimsel araştırmaları önemli ölçüde artmasını teşvik etmektedir. Batı ülkelerindeki araştırmalara risk değerlendirmelerinde olasılıklar hakimdir ve karmaşık domino etkileri ve sonuçları için başarısızlık mekanizmaları hesaplanır. Önceki çalışmalar siyasi, resmi ve özel karar alma ile yakından ilgilidir. Risk yönetimine geçiş henüz emekleme aşamasındadır. Domino etkilerinin başlangıç noktalarındaki ilk senaryoları anlamak için gelecekte olabilecek süreçlere bir geçiş gereklidir. Hindistan'da 1990'ların ortalarında domino etkileri için bir farkındalık çağrısı yapıldı. Uluslararası bilimsel literatürde domino etkileri üzerine Çin yayınları, 2000'lerin ortalarından itibaren ortaya çıkmaktadır. Çin’deki hızlı sanayileşme nedeniyle, sektördeki birçok büyük kazayla kıyaslandığında diğer kimya şirketlerine göre çok fazladır. Bu derleme çalışmasında, 1966-2018 döneminde domino etkileri üzerine yapılan araştırmaların sonuçları, bu kaza süreçlerinin ana belirleyicileri ve bu alanda gelecekteki olası geçiş tartışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Domino etki, kimyasal küme, kimya endüstrisi, proses güvenliği, tarihsel inceleme

Investigation of domino effects in chemical factories and clusters from a historical perspective

Öz

Major accidents in Western countries, which attracted great media attention in the 1970s, are the starting point for research into internal and external domino effects in the chemical and petrochemical industries and clusters. Initially, these reports are published by government agencies and government-related research centers. With quantitative risk analyzes approaching in the 1970s and 1980s, the 'color books' published in the Netherlands play an important role in quantifying these domino effects. Since the mid-1990s, the second European Seveso Directive has promoted scientific research on domino effects, demonstrated by a significant increase in academic publications on the subject. Research in Western countries is dominated by risk assessments and probabilities. and failure mechanisms are calculated for the complex domino effects phenomenon and its consequences. Previous studies are closely related to political, official and private decision making. The transition to risk management is still in its infancy. A future transition is necessary to understand the initial scenarios as starting points for domino effects. A wake-up call for domino effects was issued in India in the mid-1990s. Chinese publications on domino effects have appeared in the international scientific press since the mid-2000s. Due to a rapid industrialization, the figures in the Chinese country are too much for chemical companies compared to many major accidents in this industry. This article will discuss the results of the research on domino effects carried out in the period 1966–2018 and the main determinants of these accident processes. In addition, the transition in both this research area and the future will be discussed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Domino effect, chemical cluster, chemical industry, process safety, historical investigation

Kaynakça

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