Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliği ve Ötesi: Türkiye’nin ABD’ye Gıda İhracatının Asimetrik Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri

Öz

Gıda ihracatı Türkiye için giderek artan bir öneme sahipken, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri bu sektördeki başlıca pazarlardan biridir. Gelir düzeyi, küresel gıda fiyatları, ticaret politikası belirsizliği ve reel döviz kuru gibi çeşitli ekonomik faktörler. Türkiye’nin ABD’ye yaptığı gıda ihracatı gelirlerini etkilemektedir. Bu çalışma, 2002: Q1-2024: Q4 dönemi çeyreklik verilerini kullanarak, asimetrik etkileri ortaya çıkarmak amacıyla her bir faktörü pozitif ve negatif şoklarına ayıran doğrusal olmayan ARDL modelini uygulamaktadır. Bulgular, kısa vadede küresel gıda fiyatlarındaki pozitif şokların Türkiye’nin ABD’ye gıda ihracatı gelirlerini arttırdığını, belirsizlikteki negatif şokların da gelirleri desteklediğini göstermektedir. Uzun vadede ise gıda fiyatları ve gelir değişkenleri istatiksel olarak anlamsız hale gelmekte, bu durum yapısal katılıklara işaret etmektedir. Ancak belirsizlik, anlamlı bir asimetrik etki sergilemektedir. Yüksek belirsizlik ticaret sapması yoluyla kazanç sağlasa da istikrar ihracat gelirlerinde çok daha büyük artışlar yaratmaktadır. Ayrıca, Türk lirasının reel değerlenmesi gelirleri önemli ölçüde azaltırken, değer kaybı ihracatı arttırmamaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, yapısal kısıtları ve politika değişikliklerini dikkate alan esnek ihracat stratejilerinin önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gıda İhracatı
• Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliği
• Asimetri
• NARDL Modeli

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Beyond: Asymmetric Macroeconomic Determinants of Türkiye’s Food Exports to the U.S.

Öz

Food exports hold growing importance for Türkiye and the United States is one of the leading markets in this sector. Several economic factors affect Türkiye’s food export revenues to the U.S. such as income levels, global food prices, trade policy-related uncertainties and currency strength. Using quarterly data for the 2002: Q1-2024: Q4 period, this study applies a nonlinear ARDL model that decomposes each factor into its positive and negative shocks to uncover asymmetric effects. The findings show that, in the short run, positive shocks to global food prices increase Türkiye’s food-export revenues to the U.S. and negative shocks to uncertainty also boost them. In the long run, food prices and income become statistically insignificant and it implies structural rigidities. However, uncertainty exhibits a significant asymmetric effect. While higher uncertainty yields trade diversion gains but stability generates substantially larger increases in export revenues. Additionally, real appreciation of the Turkish lira significantly reduces revenues, whereas depreciation does not boost them. These results underscore the importance of flexible export strategies that account for structural constraints and policy changes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Food Exports
• Trade Policy Uncertainty
• Asymmetry
• NARDL Model

Kaynakça

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