Mülteci Göçünün Sığınmacı Ülke Üzerindeki Mali Etkileri: Dünyanın Önde Gelen Mülteci Ev Sahibi Ülkesi Olan Türkiye'den Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1972-2023 dönemi verilerini kullanarak mülteci göçünün Türkiye'nin mali durumu üzerindeki etkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla, analizde mülteci nüfusu, kamu harcamaları ve vergi gelirleri kullanılmıştır. Sağlam tahmin sonuçları elde etmek amacıyla, reel GSYİH ve ticaret açıklığı değişkenleri kontrol değişkenleri olarak analize dahil edilmiştir. NARDL modeli bulguları, mülteci nüfusundaki bir artışın kamu harcamalarında artışa yol açtığını, mülteci nüfusundaki bir azalmanın ise kamu harcamalarında azalmayı beraberinde getirdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, mülteci nüfusundaki artış, vergi gelirlerinde azalmayı beraberinde getirirken, mülteci nüfusundaki azalışın vergi gelirlerinde artışa yol açtığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu durum, mültecilerin ucuz iş gücü olarak istismar edilmesi ve bunun sonucunda kayıt dışı ekonomideki artışla açıklanabilir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma, mülteci nüfusundaki artışın neden olduğu vergi gelirlerindeki düşüşü ve mültecilerin sömürülmesini önlemek için kayıt dışı istihdam üzerindeki yasal yaptırımların ve denetimlerin artırılmasının gerekli olduğunu savunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• mülteci göçü
• kamu harcamaları
• vergi gelirleri
• NARDL

Fiscal Effects of the Refugee Migration on the Asylum Country: Evidence from Türkiye, World’s Leading Refugee Host Country

Öz

This study aims to investigate the impact of refugee migration on Türkiye's fiscal situation using data from 1972 to 2023. For this purpose, the refugee population, government expenditures, and tax revenues are used for the analysis. To ensure robust estimation results, real GDP and trade openness variables are incorporated as control variables. Employing the NARDL model, the analysis reveals that an increase in the refugee population leads to an increase in government expenditures while a decrease in the refugee population results in a decrease in government expenditures. Moreover, the rise in the refugee population in Türkiye has resulted in a decline in tax revenues and a decrease in the refugee population leads to an increase in tax revenue that can be explained by the exploitation of refugees as cheap labor and the subsequent surge in the informal economy. Therefore, this study argues that it is necessary to increase legal sanctions and inspections on unregistered employment to prevent the decrease in tax revenue and exploitation of refugees caused by the increase in Türkiye’s refugee population.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• refugee migration
• government expenditures
• tax revenues
• NARDL

Kaynakça

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