HARBERGER-LAURSEN-METZLER ETKİSİ: LİTERATÜR VE TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2006, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1, 57 - 69, 27.11.2010

Rahmi Yamak Abdurrahman Korkmaz

Öz

Bu çalışma, herhangi bir ekonominin dış ticaret haddinde
meydana gelen pozitif (negatif) hareketlerin, diğer şeyler sabitken söz konusu
ekonominin dış ticaret dengesinde de pozitif (negatif) hareketlere neden
olacağını öngören Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) Hipotezi’nin, 1991:4-
2003:3 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisi bakımından geçerli olup olmadığını
incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Granger Nedensellik Testi sonuçlarına göre; dış
ticaret haddinden dış ticaret dengesine doğru, tek yönlü ve kısa dönemli bir
nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ancak söz konusu nedensellik
ilişkisi, negatif yönlü olup; Türkiye ekonomisi bakımından HLM Hipotezi’nin
söz konusu dönemde geçerli olmadığına işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

HLM etkisi, dış ticaret haddi, dış ticaret dengesi

Kaynakça

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