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Yıl 2007, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 95 - 104, 27.11.2010

Selim Başar M. Sinan Temurlenk

Öz

Türkiye için kamu müdahalelerinin dışlama etkisinin
araştırılması: Bir yapısal VAR yaklaşımı
1980’li yıllarla birlikte Türkiye’deki kamu kesiminin küçültülmesi
süregelen tartışmalardan birisidir. Bu tartışmaların odağını kamunun
ekonomideki ağırlığının özel sektör üzerindeki dışlama etkisi oluşturmaktadır.
Bu çalışmanın temel amacı 1980 sonrası dönem için Türkiye’deki kamu
harcamalarının özel yatırımlar üzerindeki dışlama etkisinin araştırılmasıdır.
Yapısal VAR modeli eş-dönemli parametre tahminlerine göre, kamu
harcamaları özel yatırımlar üzerinde dışlama etkisini destekleyecek biçimde
negatif bir etkiye sahiptir. Sonuçlar istatistik olarak anlamlı olmasına rağmen,
dışlama etkisinin düşük düzeyde gerçekleştiği görülmüştür. Düşük dışlama
etkisi nedeniyle, Türkiye’de özel yatırımları artırmanın uygun yolunun kamu
harcamalarının kısılması olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

kamu harcamaları özel yatırımlar dışlama etkisi yapısal VAR

Kaynakça

  • Ahmed, H., Miller, S. (2000) “Crowding-out and crowding-in effects of the components of government expenditure”, Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(1), pp. 124–133.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989a) “Is public expenditure productive?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 23:177-200.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989b) “Does public capital crowd out private capital?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 24:171–188.
  • Atukeren, E. (2005). “Interactions between public and private investment: Evidence from developing countries”, KYKLOS, 58, 3, 307–30.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1999). “Do Federal Budget Deficits Crowd Out or Crowd In Private Investment?” Journal of Policy Modeling, 21, 5, 633–40.
  • Barro, R.J. (1989) “The Ricardian approach to budget deficits”, Journal Of Economic Perspectives 3:37–54.
  • Belloc, M., Vertova, P. (2006). “Public investment and economic performance in highly indebted poor countries: an empirical assessment”, International Review of Applied Economics, 20, 2, 151–70.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1986) “Alternative explanations of money income correlation”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on policy, 49- 100.
  • Blanchard, O. and R. Perotti. 2002. "An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output." Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4) November: 1329- 1368.
  • Blejer, M., Khan, M. (1984) “Government policy and private investment in developing countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 31(2), pp. 379–403.
  • Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1979). “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit-root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 427-31.
  • Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series, Second Edition, John Wiley&Sons Inc., NJ.
  • Engle R., Granger, C. (1987). “Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-76.
  • Eisner, R. (1989). Budget deficits: rhetoric and reality. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3, 73–93.
  • Everhart, S. S., Sumlinski, M. A. (2000). Trends in private investment in developing countries. Statistics for 1970–2000. IFC Discussion Paper, No. 44 (Washington, D.C., World Bank).
  • Ghali, K. H. (1998) “Public investment and private capital formation in a vector-error correction model of growth”, Applied Economics, 30, 837–44.
  • Greene, J., Villanueva, D. (1991) “Private investment in developing countries: an empirical analysis”, IMF Staff Papers, 38(1), 33–58.
  • Giannini, C. (1992) Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics Springer Verlag.
  • Hadjimichael, M. T., Ghura, D. (1995) “Public policies and private savings and investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical investigation”, IMF Working Paper, No. 19.
  • Kuştepeli, Y. (2005). Effectiveness of fiscal spending: crowding out and/or crowding in? Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 2, 1, 185-92.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., Shin, Y. (1992). “Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root, how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-78.
  • Mallik, S. K. (2001). “Dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment with growth: some simulation results”, International Economic Journal, 15(1), 115–39.
  • Mitra, P. (2006) “Has government investment crowded out private investment in India?”
  • http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2006/0108_1015_0102.pdf
  • Monadjemi, M. S. (1993). “Fiscal policy and private investment expenditure: a study of Australia and the United States”, Applied Economics, 25, 143–8.
  • Nazmi, N, Ramirez, M. D. (1997). “Public and private investment and economic growth in Mexico”, Contemporary Economic Policy, XV, 1, 65-75.
  • Pereira, A. M. (2000). “Is all public capital created equal?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(3), 513–8.
  • Phillips, P.C.B, Perron, P. (1988). “Testing for a unit root in time series regressions", Biometrika, 75, 335-46.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). “Macroeconomics and reality”, Econometrica, 48, 1-48.
  • Sims, C. A. (1986) “Are forecast models usable for policy analysis?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Quarterly Review, Winter, 2-16.
  • Sundarajan, V., Thakur, S. (1980) “Public investment, crowding out and growth: a dynamic model applied to India and Korea”, IMF Staff Papers, 27, 814–55 (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund).
  • Telatar, E., Türkmen, Ş., Teoman, Ö. (2002). “Pamuk borsalarında oluşan fiyatların etkinliği”, D.E.Ü. İİBF.Dergisi, 17, 2, 55-74.
  • Temurlenk, M. S. (1998). Vektör otoregresyon modeli, Türkiye’de 1980 sonrası dönemde uygulanan istikrar politikalarının etkinliği üzerine bir uygulama, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Yayını, No. 209, Erzurum.
  • Voss, G. M. (2002), “Public and private investment in the United States and Canada”, Economic Modelling, 19, 641–64.

Yıl 2007, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 95 - 104, 27.11.2010

Selim Başar M. Sinan Temurlenk

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Ahmed, H., Miller, S. (2000) “Crowding-out and crowding-in effects of the components of government expenditure”, Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(1), pp. 124–133.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989a) “Is public expenditure productive?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 23:177-200.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989b) “Does public capital crowd out private capital?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 24:171–188.
  • Atukeren, E. (2005). “Interactions between public and private investment: Evidence from developing countries”, KYKLOS, 58, 3, 307–30.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1999). “Do Federal Budget Deficits Crowd Out or Crowd In Private Investment?” Journal of Policy Modeling, 21, 5, 633–40.
  • Barro, R.J. (1989) “The Ricardian approach to budget deficits”, Journal Of Economic Perspectives 3:37–54.
  • Belloc, M., Vertova, P. (2006). “Public investment and economic performance in highly indebted poor countries: an empirical assessment”, International Review of Applied Economics, 20, 2, 151–70.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1986) “Alternative explanations of money income correlation”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on policy, 49- 100.
  • Blanchard, O. and R. Perotti. 2002. "An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output." Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4) November: 1329- 1368.
  • Blejer, M., Khan, M. (1984) “Government policy and private investment in developing countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 31(2), pp. 379–403.
  • Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1979). “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit-root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 427-31.
  • Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series, Second Edition, John Wiley&Sons Inc., NJ.
  • Engle R., Granger, C. (1987). “Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-76.
  • Eisner, R. (1989). Budget deficits: rhetoric and reality. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3, 73–93.
  • Everhart, S. S., Sumlinski, M. A. (2000). Trends in private investment in developing countries. Statistics for 1970–2000. IFC Discussion Paper, No. 44 (Washington, D.C., World Bank).
  • Ghali, K. H. (1998) “Public investment and private capital formation in a vector-error correction model of growth”, Applied Economics, 30, 837–44.
  • Greene, J., Villanueva, D. (1991) “Private investment in developing countries: an empirical analysis”, IMF Staff Papers, 38(1), 33–58.
  • Giannini, C. (1992) Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics Springer Verlag.
  • Hadjimichael, M. T., Ghura, D. (1995) “Public policies and private savings and investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical investigation”, IMF Working Paper, No. 19.
  • Kuştepeli, Y. (2005). Effectiveness of fiscal spending: crowding out and/or crowding in? Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 2, 1, 185-92.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., Shin, Y. (1992). “Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root, how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-78.
  • Mallik, S. K. (2001). “Dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment with growth: some simulation results”, International Economic Journal, 15(1), 115–39.
  • Mitra, P. (2006) “Has government investment crowded out private investment in India?”
  • http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2006/0108_1015_0102.pdf
  • Monadjemi, M. S. (1993). “Fiscal policy and private investment expenditure: a study of Australia and the United States”, Applied Economics, 25, 143–8.
  • Nazmi, N, Ramirez, M. D. (1997). “Public and private investment and economic growth in Mexico”, Contemporary Economic Policy, XV, 1, 65-75.
  • Pereira, A. M. (2000). “Is all public capital created equal?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(3), 513–8.
  • Phillips, P.C.B, Perron, P. (1988). “Testing for a unit root in time series regressions", Biometrika, 75, 335-46.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). “Macroeconomics and reality”, Econometrica, 48, 1-48.
  • Sims, C. A. (1986) “Are forecast models usable for policy analysis?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Quarterly Review, Winter, 2-16.
  • Sundarajan, V., Thakur, S. (1980) “Public investment, crowding out and growth: a dynamic model applied to India and Korea”, IMF Staff Papers, 27, 814–55 (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund).
  • Telatar, E., Türkmen, Ş., Teoman, Ö. (2002). “Pamuk borsalarında oluşan fiyatların etkinliği”, D.E.Ü. İİBF.Dergisi, 17, 2, 55-74.
  • Temurlenk, M. S. (1998). Vektör otoregresyon modeli, Türkiye’de 1980 sonrası dönemde uygulanan istikrar politikalarının etkinliği üzerine bir uygulama, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Yayını, No. 209, Erzurum.
  • Voss, G. M. (2002), “Public and private investment in the United States and Canada”, Economic Modelling, 19, 641–64.
Toplam 34 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil tr;en
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Selim Başar Bu kişi benim

M. Sinan Temurlenk Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Kasım 2010
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2007 Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Başar, S., & Temurlenk, M. S. (2010). Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21(2), 95-104.
 Kapak Resmi İndir

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