DIŞA AÇIKLIK VE KALKINMA İLİŞKİSİ (1968-2003): TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2007, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 197 - 210, 27.11.2010

Bayram Güngör Serdar Kurt

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 1968-2003 dönemini kapsayan yıllık verilerle,
Türkiye ekonomisinde dışa açıklık ve kalkınma değişkenleri arasındaki ilişkiler
Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve hata düzeltme modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir.
Dışa açıklık değişkeni olarak dış ticaret hacminin ve ithalatın gayri safi milli
hasılaya oranları, kalkınma değişkeni olarak insani gelişme endeksi, satın alma
gücü paritesine göre hesaplanmış gayri safi yurt içi hasıla ve eğitim endeksi
kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, dışa açıklık ve kalkınma arasında uzun dönemli bir
ilişkinin varolduğunu, bununla birlikte dışa açıklık ve kalkınma değişkenleri
arasında karşılıklı kısa dönemli Granger anlamda nedensellik ilişkileri olduğunu
göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dışa Açıklık, Kalkınma, Eşbütünleşme, Hata Düzeltme Modeli.

Kaynakça

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