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NÜFUS VE EĞİTİMİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 197 - 214, 06.07.2011

Osman Murat Telatar Harun Terzi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ekonomik büyüme, nüfus ve eğitim arasındaki
ilişkiler Granger nedensellik testi ve VAR analizi yardımıyla 1968-2006 dönemi
Türkiye ekonomisi için incelenmiştir. Ekonometrik analizler, ekonomik
büyümeden nüfusa doğru negatif, yüksek öğretim mezunu öğrenci sayısına
doğru ise pozitif bir nedenselliğin olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmada ayrıca,
meslek lisesi mezunu öğrenci sayısından ekonomik büyümeye doğru pozitif bir
nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye ekonomik büyüme nüfus eğitim ve nedensellik

Kaynakça

  • Arslan, İ. ve İzgi, B. (2008) “The Analysis of the Relationship Between Human Capital and Economic Growth in Information Scoiety (1990-2006)”, Yumuşak, İ (Editör). Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı, Cilt 1, Avcı Ofset Matbaacılık, İstanbul, ss.371-380.
  • Backman, J. F. (2008) “The Role of Education in Chile’s Economic Growth”, http://apebhconference.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/permani 20081.pdf.
  • Barlow, R. (1994) “Population Growth and Economic Growth: Some More Correlations”, Population and Development Review, 20, ss.153-165.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991) “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, ss.407-443.
  • ________. (1999) “Education and Economic Growth”, http://www.oecd.org/ dataoecd /5/49/1825455.pdf.
  • Becker, G. S., Murphy, M. K. ve Tamura R. (1990) “Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 98, ss.12-37.
  • Becker, G. S., Glaser, E. L. ve Murphy, M. K. (1999) “Population and Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 89, ss.145-149.
  • Birdsall, N. (1982) “Population and Development Modeling-Proceedings of the United Nations”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 4, ss.457-462.
  • Darrat, A. F. ve Al-Yousif, Y. K. (1999) “On the Long-Run Relationship Between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries”, Eastren Economic Journal, 25, 3, ss.301-312.
  • Dawson, P. J. ve Tiffin, R. (1998) “Is there a Long-Run Relationship between Population Growth and Living Standards? The Case of India”, The Journal of Development Studies, 5, ss.149-156.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1979) “Distribution of the Estimators for an Autoregressive Time Series with Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, ss.251-276.
  • ________. (1981) “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for an Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, ss.1057-1072.
  • Doan, T. (2000), RATS User’s Guide, Estima, Evanston, IL. Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometrics Time Series, 1st ed., John Wiley & Sons, Inc., US.
  • Freire-Serén, M. J. (2001) “Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth”, Investigaciones Económicas, 25, 3, ss.585-602. Fuller, W. A. (1996), Introduction to Statistical Time series, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., US.
  • Galor, O. ve Weil, D. N. (1999) “From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth” American Economic Review, May, ss.150-154.
  • Gyimah-Brempong, K., Paddison, O. ve Mitiku, V. (2006) “Higher Education and Economic Development in Africa”, Journal of Development Studies, 42(3), ss.509-529.
  • Gylfason, T. (2001) “Natural Resources, Education and Economic Development”, European Economic Review, 45, ss.847-859.
  • Gylfason, T. ve Zoega, G. (2003) “Education, Social Equality and Economic Growth: A View of the Landscape”, CESifo Economic Studies, 49, ss. 557-579.
  • Granger, C. W. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37, ss.424-438.
  • Hall, R. E. ve Jones, C. I. (1999) “Why do Some Countries Produce More Output Per Worker than Others?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, ss.83-117.
  • Hasan, M. S. (2001) “Is there a Long Run Relationship between Population Growth and Living Standards? The Case of India-a Re-examination”, The Indian Economic Journal, 4, ss.27-34.
  • Hsiao, C. (1979) “Causality Tests in Econometrics”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, ss.321-346.
  • _______. (1981) “Autoregressive Modeling and Money Income Causality Detection”, Journal of Monetary Economics, ss.85-106.
  • Kapuria-Foreman, V. (1995) “Population and Growth Causality in Developing Countries”, Journal of Developing Areas, 29, ss.531-540.
  • Kelley, A. C. (1988) “Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World,” Journal of Economic Literature, ss.1685-1728.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A., (1998) “İktisadi Büyümenin Belirleyicileri ve Yeni Büyüme Modellerinde Beşeri Sermayenin Yeri”, AÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 53, ss.207-230.
  • Lee, R. (1983) “Economic Consequences of Population Size, Structure and Growth”, Newsletter of the IUSSP, ss.43-59.
  • Ljungberg, J. ve Nilsson, A. (2005) “Human Capital and Economic Growth: Sweden18702000”,http://www.ata.boun.edu.tr/ehes/Istanbul%20Conf erence%20Papers%20May%202005/Ljungberg&Nilsson.pdf.
  • Mankiw, G. N., Romer, D. ve Weil, N. D. (1992) “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2, ss.407-437.
  • Nakibullah, A. (1998) “Population Growth and Development: the case of Bangladesh”, Applied Economic Letters, 5, ss.231-234.
  • Özsoy, C. (2008), Türkiye’de Eğitim ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Modeli ile Analizi. Yumuşak, İ (Editör). Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı, Cilt 1, Avcı Ofset Matbaacılık, İstanbul, ss. 329-340.
  • Park, J. (2006) “Dispersion of Human Capital and Economic Growth”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 28, ss.520-539.
  • Payne, E. J. ve Ewing, B. T. (1997) “Population and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis of Lesser Developed Countries”, Applied Economic Letters, 4, ss.665-669.
  • Permani, R. (2008) “Education as a Determinant of Economic Growth in East Asia: Historical Trends and Empiricial Evidences (1965-2000)”, http: // apebhconference.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/permani-20081.pdf.
  • Potter, J. E. (1986) “Mexico: A Model of Success”, Harvard International Review, March, ss.33-35.
  • Pörtner, C. (1996) “Population and Economic Gowth”, http://faculty.washington.edu/cportner/papers/MScDiss.pdf. Romer, M. P. (1989) “Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, NBER Working Paper Series, 3173, ss.1-51.
  • Sarsılmaz, M. (2003) “Nüfus ve Ekonomik Gelişme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1938-1999)”, KTÜ-SBE Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Trabzon.
  • Simon, J. L. (1989) “On the Aggregate Empirical Studies Relating Population Variables to Economic Development”, Population and Development Review, 15, ss.323-332.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980) “Macroeconomics and Reality”, Econometrica, 48, ss.1-48.
  • Thirlwall, A. P. (2003), Growth & Development with Special Reference to Developing Economies, 7. baskı, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 197 - 214, 06.07.2011

Osman Murat Telatar Harun Terzi

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Arslan, İ. ve İzgi, B. (2008) “The Analysis of the Relationship Between Human Capital and Economic Growth in Information Scoiety (1990-2006)”, Yumuşak, İ (Editör). Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı, Cilt 1, Avcı Ofset Matbaacılık, İstanbul, ss.371-380.
  • Backman, J. F. (2008) “The Role of Education in Chile’s Economic Growth”, http://apebhconference.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/permani 20081.pdf.
  • Barlow, R. (1994) “Population Growth and Economic Growth: Some More Correlations”, Population and Development Review, 20, ss.153-165.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991) “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, ss.407-443.
  • ________. (1999) “Education and Economic Growth”, http://www.oecd.org/ dataoecd /5/49/1825455.pdf.
  • Becker, G. S., Murphy, M. K. ve Tamura R. (1990) “Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 98, ss.12-37.
  • Becker, G. S., Glaser, E. L. ve Murphy, M. K. (1999) “Population and Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 89, ss.145-149.
  • Birdsall, N. (1982) “Population and Development Modeling-Proceedings of the United Nations”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 4, ss.457-462.
  • Darrat, A. F. ve Al-Yousif, Y. K. (1999) “On the Long-Run Relationship Between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries”, Eastren Economic Journal, 25, 3, ss.301-312.
  • Dawson, P. J. ve Tiffin, R. (1998) “Is there a Long-Run Relationship between Population Growth and Living Standards? The Case of India”, The Journal of Development Studies, 5, ss.149-156.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1979) “Distribution of the Estimators for an Autoregressive Time Series with Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, ss.251-276.
  • ________. (1981) “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for an Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, ss.1057-1072.
  • Doan, T. (2000), RATS User’s Guide, Estima, Evanston, IL. Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometrics Time Series, 1st ed., John Wiley & Sons, Inc., US.
  • Freire-Serén, M. J. (2001) “Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth”, Investigaciones Económicas, 25, 3, ss.585-602. Fuller, W. A. (1996), Introduction to Statistical Time series, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., US.
  • Galor, O. ve Weil, D. N. (1999) “From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth” American Economic Review, May, ss.150-154.
  • Gyimah-Brempong, K., Paddison, O. ve Mitiku, V. (2006) “Higher Education and Economic Development in Africa”, Journal of Development Studies, 42(3), ss.509-529.
  • Gylfason, T. (2001) “Natural Resources, Education and Economic Development”, European Economic Review, 45, ss.847-859.
  • Gylfason, T. ve Zoega, G. (2003) “Education, Social Equality and Economic Growth: A View of the Landscape”, CESifo Economic Studies, 49, ss. 557-579.
  • Granger, C. W. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37, ss.424-438.
  • Hall, R. E. ve Jones, C. I. (1999) “Why do Some Countries Produce More Output Per Worker than Others?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, ss.83-117.
  • Hasan, M. S. (2001) “Is there a Long Run Relationship between Population Growth and Living Standards? The Case of India-a Re-examination”, The Indian Economic Journal, 4, ss.27-34.
  • Hsiao, C. (1979) “Causality Tests in Econometrics”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, ss.321-346.
  • _______. (1981) “Autoregressive Modeling and Money Income Causality Detection”, Journal of Monetary Economics, ss.85-106.
  • Kapuria-Foreman, V. (1995) “Population and Growth Causality in Developing Countries”, Journal of Developing Areas, 29, ss.531-540.
  • Kelley, A. C. (1988) “Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World,” Journal of Economic Literature, ss.1685-1728.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A., (1998) “İktisadi Büyümenin Belirleyicileri ve Yeni Büyüme Modellerinde Beşeri Sermayenin Yeri”, AÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 53, ss.207-230.
  • Lee, R. (1983) “Economic Consequences of Population Size, Structure and Growth”, Newsletter of the IUSSP, ss.43-59.
  • Ljungberg, J. ve Nilsson, A. (2005) “Human Capital and Economic Growth: Sweden18702000”,http://www.ata.boun.edu.tr/ehes/Istanbul%20Conf erence%20Papers%20May%202005/Ljungberg&Nilsson.pdf.
  • Mankiw, G. N., Romer, D. ve Weil, N. D. (1992) “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2, ss.407-437.
  • Nakibullah, A. (1998) “Population Growth and Development: the case of Bangladesh”, Applied Economic Letters, 5, ss.231-234.
  • Özsoy, C. (2008), Türkiye’de Eğitim ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Modeli ile Analizi. Yumuşak, İ (Editör). Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı, Cilt 1, Avcı Ofset Matbaacılık, İstanbul, ss. 329-340.
  • Park, J. (2006) “Dispersion of Human Capital and Economic Growth”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 28, ss.520-539.
  • Payne, E. J. ve Ewing, B. T. (1997) “Population and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis of Lesser Developed Countries”, Applied Economic Letters, 4, ss.665-669.
  • Permani, R. (2008) “Education as a Determinant of Economic Growth in East Asia: Historical Trends and Empiricial Evidences (1965-2000)”, http: // apebhconference.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/permani-20081.pdf.
  • Potter, J. E. (1986) “Mexico: A Model of Success”, Harvard International Review, March, ss.33-35.
  • Pörtner, C. (1996) “Population and Economic Gowth”, http://faculty.washington.edu/cportner/papers/MScDiss.pdf. Romer, M. P. (1989) “Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, NBER Working Paper Series, 3173, ss.1-51.
  • Sarsılmaz, M. (2003) “Nüfus ve Ekonomik Gelişme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1938-1999)”, KTÜ-SBE Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Trabzon.
  • Simon, J. L. (1989) “On the Aggregate Empirical Studies Relating Population Variables to Economic Development”, Population and Development Review, 15, ss.323-332.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980) “Macroeconomics and Reality”, Econometrica, 48, ss.1-48.
  • Thirlwall, A. P. (2003), Growth & Development with Special Reference to Developing Economies, 7. baskı, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
Toplam 40 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil tr;en
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Osman Murat Telatar Bu kişi benim

Harun Terzi Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 6 Temmuz 2011
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2010 Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Telatar, O. M., & Terzi, H. (2011). NÜFUS VE EĞİTİMİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 197-214.

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