Yıl 2013,
Cilt: 27 Sayı: 3, 41 - 54, 19.07.2013
Öz
The aim of this study is to identify factors that affect the foreign trade of Developing Countries (DC) and especially to set forth the sensitivity of foreign trade to exchange rate changes. In this study, it is examined the effects of exchange rate changes on exports and imports of 18 emerging economies including Turkey separately. The effects of exchange rate changes on emerging countries’ external trade were analyzed by using alternative econometric models. The time sample of the analysis cover the years between 1994 and 2010 and the panel data analysis were applied. Depending on stationary and co-integrating properties of the variables, error correction models were used to check short run relationships. Thus, coefficients’ signs of the variables used in models were found theoretically expected.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Adeniyi, O., Omisakin, O. and Oyinlola, A., (2011), “Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in West African Monetary Zone: Is There a J- Curve?”, The İnternational Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 5 (3): 167-17
- Baum, F., C., Çağlayan, M. and Özkan, N., (2004), “Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19: 1-23.
- Baum, F., C. ve Çağlayan, M. (2009), “The volatility of international trade flows and exchange rate uncertainty”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 12: 1-45.
- Bayraktutan, Y. ve Demirtaş, I. (2011), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (22) 2: 1-28.
- Blackburne, E.F. and Frank, M. W. (2007). “Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels” The Stata Journal, 7 number 2, pp. 197-208
- Chit, M., M., Rizov, M. and Willenbockel, D. (2008), “Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies”. MPRA Paper No: 9014, pp: 1-35.
- Dell’Ariccia, G.,- (1998).-, “Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Trade Flows: Evidence From The European Union”, IMF Working Paper, 98/107: 1
- Emsen, S., Ersungur, M. ve Özdemir, D. (2011), “Ekonomik sistemler ve Geçiş Ekonomileri Orta Asya ve Kafkasya Ekonomilerine Bir Bakış”, Ankara, Siyasal Kitapevi.
- Hall, S., Hondroyiannis, G., Swamy, B., Tavlas, G. and Ulan, M. (2005), “Some Further Evidence on Exchange Rate Volatility And Exports”, Bank Of Greece, Working Paper, No: 28: 1-30.
- Hall, S., Hondroyiannis, G., Swamy, B., Tavlas, G. and Ulan, M. (2010), “Exchange Rate Volatility And Export Performance: Do Emerging Market Economies Resemble Industrial Countries Or Other Developing Countries?”, , ELSEVIER, Economic Modelling 27: 1514-1521. Hayakawa, K., and Kımura, F. (2008), “The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade in East Asia”, ERIA Discussion Paper Series, 03: 1-20.
- Im, K. L., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of Econometrics, 115: 53–74.
- Levin, A., Lin, C. F. and Chu, C. J. (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finitesample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108: 1-24.
- Najafov, O. (2010), “Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade”, Central European University, Master Tezi, Macaristan.
- Omojimite, B. and Akpokodje, G. (2010), “A Comparative Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports in the CFA and NonCFA Countries of Africa”, J Soc Sci, 24(1): 23-31.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (1999). “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic
- Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94: 621–34 Ramos, R., Clar, M. and Surinach, J. (2000), “Trade And Exchange Rate Variability: New Evidence From EU Countries”, 40. Avrupa Bölgesel Bilim Kongresi, Barselona, pp: 1-25.
- Salvatore, D. (2010), “Globalisation, International Competitiveness and Growth: Advanced and Emerging Markets, Large and Small Countries”, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 1 (1): 21-32.
DIŞ TİCARETİN DÖVİZ KURU DEĞİŞMELERİNE DUYARLILIĞI: SEÇİLMİŞ GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME
Öz
Çalışmanın amacı yükselen ekonomilerin dış ticaret yapısını
etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi ve özellikle dış ticaretin döviz kuruna karşı
gösterdiği hassasiyetin ortaya konulmasıdır. Çalışmada Türkiye’nin de içinde
bulunduğu yükselen ekonomilerde döviz kurlarının ülkelerin ihracat ve
ithalatları üzerindeki etkiler ayrı ayrı incelenmiştir. Döviz kurunun yükselen
ekonomiler üzerindeki etkileri alternatif ekonometrik modeller vasıtasıyla
araştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın zaman serisi 1994 ve 2010 yıllarını kapsamaktadır ve
panel veri analizleri kullanılmıştır. Serilerin durağanlık ve eşbütünleşme
özelliklerinden hareketle, kısa dönemli ilişkiler hata düzeltme modelleriyle
incelenmiştir. Sonuç olarak teorik açıdan beklenilen uygun katsayılar elde
edilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Adeniyi, O., Omisakin, O. and Oyinlola, A., (2011), “Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in West African Monetary Zone: Is There a J- Curve?”, The İnternational Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 5 (3): 167-17
- Baum, F., C., Çağlayan, M. and Özkan, N., (2004), “Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19: 1-23.
- Baum, F., C. ve Çağlayan, M. (2009), “The volatility of international trade flows and exchange rate uncertainty”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 12: 1-45.
- Bayraktutan, Y. ve Demirtaş, I. (2011), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (22) 2: 1-28.
- Blackburne, E.F. and Frank, M. W. (2007). “Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels” The Stata Journal, 7 number 2, pp. 197-208
- Chit, M., M., Rizov, M. and Willenbockel, D. (2008), “Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies”. MPRA Paper No: 9014, pp: 1-35.
- Dell’Ariccia, G.,- (1998).-, “Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Trade Flows: Evidence From The European Union”, IMF Working Paper, 98/107: 1
- Emsen, S., Ersungur, M. ve Özdemir, D. (2011), “Ekonomik sistemler ve Geçiş Ekonomileri Orta Asya ve Kafkasya Ekonomilerine Bir Bakış”, Ankara, Siyasal Kitapevi.
- Hall, S., Hondroyiannis, G., Swamy, B., Tavlas, G. and Ulan, M. (2005), “Some Further Evidence on Exchange Rate Volatility And Exports”, Bank Of Greece, Working Paper, No: 28: 1-30.
- Hall, S., Hondroyiannis, G., Swamy, B., Tavlas, G. and Ulan, M. (2010), “Exchange Rate Volatility And Export Performance: Do Emerging Market Economies Resemble Industrial Countries Or Other Developing Countries?”, , ELSEVIER, Economic Modelling 27: 1514-1521. Hayakawa, K., and Kımura, F. (2008), “The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade in East Asia”, ERIA Discussion Paper Series, 03: 1-20.
- Im, K. L., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of Econometrics, 115: 53–74.
- Levin, A., Lin, C. F. and Chu, C. J. (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finitesample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108: 1-24.
- Najafov, O. (2010), “Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade”, Central European University, Master Tezi, Macaristan.
- Omojimite, B. and Akpokodje, G. (2010), “A Comparative Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports in the CFA and NonCFA Countries of Africa”, J Soc Sci, 24(1): 23-31.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (1999). “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic
- Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94: 621–34 Ramos, R., Clar, M. and Surinach, J. (2000), “Trade And Exchange Rate Variability: New Evidence From EU Countries”, 40. Avrupa Bölgesel Bilim Kongresi, Barselona, pp: 1-25.
- Salvatore, D. (2010), “Globalisation, International Competitiveness and Growth: Advanced and Emerging Markets, Large and Small Countries”, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 1 (1): 21-32.
Toplam 17 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | tr;en |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 19 Temmuz 2013 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2013 Cilt: 27 Sayı: 3 |
