One of the indicators created to have information about the state of an economy and to direct economic policies is the consumer confidence index. Stock market index and exchange rate are two important variables with high volatility that affect and are affected by the consumer confidence index. For this purpose, it is aimed to investigate the effect of exchange rate and stock market index on consumer confidence index in OECD countries. It cannot be said that the same level of financial stability, growth and living standards is achieved in all 37 member countries of the OECD. Therefore, in the study; capital market development level, the level of economic openness which like Turkey and the data can be accessed by selecting data from 11 OECD members, were included in the analysis.
In the study covering the 2013 M01: 2020 M02 period; Bai and Ng (2004) PANIC panel unit root test, Im, Lee & Tieslau (2005) panel unit root tests with structural break, panel VAR Granger and panel VECM causality test, asymmetric Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality tests were used. In the analysis; In the short run, although consumer confidence significantly affects the exchange rate and stock market index; It was found that exchange rate and stock market index do not affect consumer confidence. In the long run, the existence of a causal relationship to consumer confidence from the exchange rate and stock market index has been determined. According to these results, while the change in the consumer confidence index affects the stock market index and exchange rate in the short run; On the other hand, it was found that stock market index and exchange rate have long-term effects on consumer confidence index
Yayımlanma Tarihi : 15 Temmuz 2021
|APA||Barışık, S , Dursun, E . (2021). Tüketici Güveninin Oluşumunda Borsa ve Döviz Kurunun Etkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Uygulaması . Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi , 35 (3) , 901-926 . DOI: 10.16951/atauniiibd.829889|