Analysis of Shoreline Changes in Kızılırmak Delta Using EPR and LRR Methods for the Period 1984–2022, and Prediction for the Year 2030

Öz

Determining shoreline changes, investigating the reasons for these changes, and making predictions for the feature are of great importance for coastal management. The aim of this study is to analyze shoreline changes in an 8 km-long region of the Kızılırmak Delta during the period 1984–2022 and predict the shoreline for the year 2030. The shorelines were determined using Landsat-5 TM/Landsat-8 OLI/Landsat-9 OLI-2 satellite images of 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2008, 2015 and 2022. Annual shoreline change rates were calculated using the EPR and LRR methods. For the period 1984–2022, EPR revealed an average erosion rate of -7.0 m/year, with a maximum erosion rate of -16.2 m/year. LRR showed an average erosion rate of -7.5 m/year, with a maximum erosion rate of -19.6 m/year. The total area lost due to erosion was 201.40 hectares, and 57% of the 8 km coast according to EPR and 50% according to LRR showed high degree of erosion. The results revealed that the coastal protection structures could not completely prevent the erosion. Without necessary precautions, it is predicted that an additional 51.48 hectares of area may be lost due to erosion by 2030, potentially reaching depths of -270.8 m.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Shoreline Change
• Coastal Erosion
• Shoreline Prediction
• EPR
• LRR

Kızılırmak Deltası Kıyı Çizgisinin EPR ve LRR Yöntemleriyle 1984–2022 Periyodunda Değişim Analizi ve 2030 Yılı Tahmini

Öz

Kıyı çizgisindeki değişimlerin belirlenmesi, değişimlerin nedenlerinin araştırılması ve gelecek tarihlere yönelik tahminler, kıyı yönetimi açısından büyük bir önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Kızılırmak Deltasında 8 km uzunluğundaki bölgede 1984–2022 periyodunda gerçekleşen kıyı çizgisi değişimlerinin analizi ve 2030 yılı için kıyı çizgisinin konumunun tahmin edilmesidir. Çalışmada 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2008, 2015 ve 2022 yıllarına ait Landsat-5 TM/Landsat-8 OLI/Landsat-9 OLI-2 uydu görüntüleri kullanılarak kıyı çizgileri belirlenmiş, EPR ve LRR yöntemleriyle yıllık kıyı çizgisi değişim oranları hesaplanmıştır. 1984–2022 periyodunda EPR yöntemiyle ortalama -7,0 m/yıl ve maksimum -16,2 m/yıl, LRR yöntemiyle ortalama -7,5 m/yıl ve maksimum -19,6 m/yıl erozyon hızı belirlenmiştir. Erozyonla kaybedilen alan 201,40 ha olup, 8 km kıyının EPR yöntemine göre % 57’si, LRR yöntemine göre % 50’si yüksek erozyon derecesi taşımaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçları kıyı koruma yapılarının erozyonu tam olarak engelleyemediğini göstermiştir. Gerekli önlemlerin alınmaması durumunda 2030 yılına kadar -270,8 m’yi bulabilecek erozyon nedeniyle 51,48 ha alanın kaybolacağı öngörülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kıyı çizgisi değişimi
• Kıyı erozyonu
• Kıyı çizgisi tahmini
• EPR
• LRR

Kaynakça

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