Türkiye'nin Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesine Gelen Turistlerin Projeksiyonları

Öz

Turizm öngörüleri, sektörün gelecekteki gelişmelerinin yönetimi için sağlam bir politika geliştirmede çok önemli rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi’nde Otoregresif Entegre Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) modelinin uygulanması ile gelen turist sayısının projeksiyonunu sunmaktadır. Önerilen model için 2008'den 2018'e kadar gelen turist sayılarının aylık verileri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, önerilen modelin gerçek gelen turist sayılarına çok yakın değerleri öngördüğünü ortaya koymuştur. Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi'nde gelecek yıllarda gelen turistlerin artması ve bölgenin popüler bir turizm merkezi haline gelmesi beklenmektedir. Bu nedenle, turizmi sürdürülebilir bir biçimde geliştirmek için önceden bazı önlemlerin alınması gerekmektedir. Gelecek projeksiyonu, sürdürülebilir turizm gelişiminin ayrılmaz bir parçası olduğundan çalışmanın sonuçları bölge için daha iyi bir turizm politikasının geliştirilmesine katkıda bulunacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turist Gelişler,Turizm Öngörüsü,ARIMA modelleme,Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi,Türkiye

Projections of Tourist Arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey

Öz

Tourism forecasting plays a vital role to develop strong policy for the management of future development in the sector. This study makes tourist arrival projections in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey with application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Annual data of tourist arrivals from 1996 to 2018 has been used for proposed model. The results have revealed that the proposed model has projected the tourist arrival values that are very close to actual values. Tourist arrivals are projected to be increased in the future years in Eastern Black Sea Region, hence, making the region a popular tourist destination. Therefore, prior measures are important to take in order to develop tourism in sustainable form. The results of the study are useful for development of better tourism policy for the region as future projection is an integral part of sustainable tourism development.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourist arrivals,Tourism forecast,ARIMA modelling,Eastern Black Sea Region,Turkey

Kaynakça

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