Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti'nde Su Noksanlığı ve Eğilim Analizi

Yıl 2021, , 436 - 465, 31.10.2021

Mustafa Murat Kale

https://doi.org/10.33688/aucbd.952128

Öz

Doğu Akdeniz Havzası’nın merkezinde, eski dünyadan batıya açılan deniz yolu üzerinde yer alan Kıbrıs adası bölge coğrafyasında su kökenli problemlerin en çok yaşandığı yerler arasındadır. Bu çalışmada Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti (KKTC)’ndeki su noksanlığının ortaya çıkartılması ve su noksanlığına ait eğilimlerin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışma dönemi boyunca hidrolojik bütçeler oluşturularak su noksanı miktar ve süresi hesaplanmıştır. Su noksanlığı ve su fazlalığı tespit edilen aylarda istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı bir artış veya azalış olup olmadığı sorusuna yanıt aranmış ve bu kapsamda eğilim analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışma bulguları KKTC genelinde yılın büyük bir kısmında su noksanlığı gerçekleştiğini göstermiştir. Kuzey ve iç kesimler arasında su noksanı miktar ve süresi farklılık sergilemektedir. Eğilim analizleri KKTC genelinde gerek su fazlalığında gerekse su noksanlığında istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı yönelimler gerçekleştiğini ortaya çıkartmıştır. Su fazlalığı kaydedilen aylarda tespit edilen anlamlı eğilimler su fazlasının azaldığını gösterirken, su noksanlığı kaydedilen aylarda tespit edilen anlamlı eğilimler su noksanının arttığını göstermiştir. Otuz bir yıllık kesintisiz dönem boyunca yıllık ölçekte su fazlası olan ay sayısında istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı azalma eğilimi tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

su bütçesi, su noksanlığı, Eğilim, Kuzey Kıbrıs

Water Deficit and Trend Analysis in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

Öz

The island of Cyprus located in the center of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, on the sea route from the old world to the west has huge water-based problems. This study, it was aimed to reveal the water deficit and trends on water deficit in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC). In this context, the traces of water deficit were investigated using water budgets. Water budgets were created and the amount and duration of water deficit were calculated. Statistically significant trends were investigated in the stations. In this context, the possible trends on the water deficit and the water surplus series were investigated separately. The results of the study showed that water deficit occurs in the KKTC throughout most of the year. The amount and duration of water deficit differ between the northern and inner parts of KKTC. Trend analyzes revealed that there are statistically significant trends in both water deficit and water surplus throughout the KKTC. In addition, a statistically significant decrease trend was detected in the number of months that have water deficit on an annual scale.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Water budget,, Water deficit, Trend, Northern Cyprus

Kaynakça

• Allen, M.R., Dube, O.P., Solecki, W., Aragón-Durand, F., Cramer, W., Humphreys, S., Kainuma, M., Kala, J., Mahowald, N., Mulugetta, Y., Perez, R., Wairiu, M., Zickfeld, K. (2018). Framing and Context. In Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P.R., Pirani, A. Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S.,Matthews, J.B.R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M.I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor M., Waterfield, T. (eds.),Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. (pp. 49-91). https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf adresinden alındı.
• Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Wu, S., Palutikof, J.P. (2008). Climate Change and Water. Technical paper of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Geneva: IPCC.
• Benjamin N.N., Jacques, M., Jean, S.R. (2007). Groundwater recharge from rainfall in the southern border of Lake Chad in Cameroon, World Applied Sciences Journal, 2 (2), 125-131.
• Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R.A.P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G.T., Bilibashi, A., …. Živković, N. (2019). Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. Nature, 573, 108-111. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
• Chahine, M.T. (1992). The hydrological cycle and its influence on climate. Nature, 359 (6394), 373-380. doi: 10.1038/359373a0
• Chenoweth, J., Hadjinicolaou, P., Bruggeman, A., Lelieveld, J., Levin, Z., Lange, M. A., Xoplaki, E., Hadjikakou, M. (2011). Impact of climate change on the water resources of the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region: Modeled 21st century changes and implications. Water Resources Research, 47 (6). doi: 10.1029/2010WR010269
• Christofi, C., Bruggeman, A., Kuells, C., Constantinou, C. (2020). Hydrochemical evolution of groundwater in gabbro of the Troodos Fractured Aquifer. A comprehensive approach. Applied Geochemistry, 114. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2020.104524
• Caloiero, T., Caloiero, P., Frustaci, F. (2018). Long‐term precipitation trend analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin. Water and Environment Journal, 32 (3), 433-445. doi:10.1111/wej.12346
• Cook, J., Nuccitelli, D., Green, S.A., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., Way, R., Jacobs, P., Skuce, A. (2013). Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (2). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024
• Crowley, T.J., North, G.R. (1988). Abrupt climate change and extinction events in earth history. Science, 240 (4855), 996-1002. doi: 10.1126/science.240.4855.996
• Cuthbert, M.O., Gleeson, T., Moosdorf, N., Befus, K.M., Schneider, A., Hartmann, J., Lehner, B. (2019). Global patterns and dynamics of climate–groundwater interactions. Nature Climate Change, 9 (2), 137-141. doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0386-4
• Danandeh Mehr, A., Sorman, A.U., Kahya, E., Hesami Afshar, M. (2020). Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65 (2), 254-268. doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1691218
• Demircan, M., Çiçek, İ., Türkoğlu, N., Ekici, M., Arabacı, H., Akçakaya, A. (2015). Ortalama sıcaklıklardaki türdeşlik kırılmalarının iklim göstergeleriyle ilişkisi. VII. Uluslararası Katılımlı Atmosfer Bilimleri Sempozyumu 28-30 Nisan 2015, Bildiriler Kitabı içinde (s. 605-614). İstanbul.
• Donat, M.G., Lowry, A.L., Alexander, L.V., O’Gorman, P.A., Maher, N. (2016). More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nature Climate Change, 6 (5), 508-513. doi:10.1038/nclimate2941
• Ergil, M.E. (2000). The salination problem of the Guzelyurt aquifer, Cyprus. Water Research, 34 (4), 1201-1214. doi: 10.1016/S0043-1354(99)00253-5
• Fan, Y., Li, H., Miguez-Macho, G. (2013). Global patterns of groundwater table depth. Science, 339, 940-943. doi: 10.1126/science.1229881
• Fetter, C.W. (1994). Applied Hydrogeology. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
• Gamgam, H., Altunkaynak, B. (2013). Parametrik Olmayan Yöntemler. Ankara: Şeçkin Yayıncılık.
• Giannakopoulos, C., Hadjinicolaou, P., Kostopoulou, E., Varotsos, K.V., Zerefos, C. (2010). Precipitation and temperature regime over Cyprus as a result of global climate change. Advances in Geosciences, 23, 17-24. doi:10.5194/adgeo-23-17-2010. doi: 10.5194/adgeo-23-17-2010
• Goosse, H., Barriat, P.Y., Lefebvre, W., Loutre, M.F., Zunz, V. (2010). Brief History of Climate: Causes and Mechanisms. In Introduction to Climate Dynamics and Climate Modelling. (pp. 109-144). New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Grinevskiy, S.O., Pozdniakov, S.P., Dedulina, E.A. (2021). Regional-scale model analysis of climate changes impact on the water budget of the critical zone and groundwater recharge in the European part of Russia. Water, 13 (4), 428. doi: 10.3390/w13040428
• Gönençgil, B., Çavuş, E. (2006). Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti’nin İklimi. İstanbul: Elçi Yayıncılık.
• Gürsoy, S.İ., Jacques, P.J., (2014). Water security in the Middle East and North African region. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 4 (4), 310-314. doi: 10.1007/s13412-014-0180-1
• Hagemann, S., Chen, C., Clark, D.B., Folwell, S., Gosling, S.N., Haddeland, I., Hanasaki, N., Heinke, J., Ludwig, F., Voss, F., Wiltshire, A.J. (2013). Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models. Earth System Dynamics, 4 (1), 129-144. doi:10.5194/esd-4-129-2013
• Hosseinzadehtalaei, P., Tabari, H., Willems, P. (2020). Climate change impact on short-duration extreme precipitation and intensity–duration–frequency curves over Europe. Journal of Hydrology, 590. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125932
• Huntington T.G. (2006). Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis. Journal of Hydrology, 319 (1-4), 83-95. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.003
• Hutjes, R.W.A., Kabat, P., Running, S.W., Shuttleworth, W.J., Field, C., Bass, B., ... Vörösmarty, C.J. (1998). Biospheric aspects of the hydrological cycle. Journal of Hydrology, 212, 1-21. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00255-8
• IPCC, (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Theme], Pachauri, R.K., Reisinger, A. (eds). Geneva: IPCC
• IPCC, (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team], Pachauri, R.K., Meyer, L.A. (eds.). Geneva: IPCC
• Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Flores, F., Moneo, M. (2007). Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean. Water Resources Management, 21 (5), 775-788. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9111-6
• Jehanzaib, M., Shah, S.A., Yoo, J., Kim, T.W. (2020). Investigating the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought using non-stationary approaches. Journal of Hydrology, 588, 125052. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125052
• Katsanos, D., Retalis, A., Michaelides, S. (2016). Validation of a high-resolution precipitation database (CHIRPS) over Cyprus for a 30-year period. Atmospheric Research, 169, 459-464. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.05.015
• Katsanos, D., Retalis, A., Tymvios, F., Michaelides, S. (2017). Study of Precipitation Extremes in Cyprus. In Karacostas, T., Bais, A., Nastos, P.T. (eds.), Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences. (pp. 559-564). Cham: Springer.
• Katsanos, D., Retalis, A., Tymvios, F., Michaelides, S. (2018). Study of extreme wet and dry periods in Cyprus using climatic indices. Atmospheric Research, 208, 88-93. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.09.002
• Kelley, C., Ting, M., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y. (2012). Mediterranean precipitation climatology, seasonal cycle, and trend as simulated by CMIP5. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (21). doi: 10.1029/2012GL053416
• Koday, Z. (1995). Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti Devleti'nin coğrafi özellikleri. Atatürk Üniversitesi Türkiyat Araştırmaları Enstitüsü Dergisi, (2). 17-45.
• Kundzewicz, Z.W. (2008). Climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle. Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology, 8 (2-4), 195-203. doi: 10.2478/v10104-009-0015-y
• Kutoğlu, S. (2010). Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti'nin jeomorfolojik ve uygulamalı jeomorfolojik etüdü. İstanbul Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, İstanbul. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Lelieveld, J., Hadjinicolaou, P., Kostopoulou, E., Chenoweth, J., El Maayar, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Hannides, C., Lange, M. A., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., Xoplaki, E. (2012). Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Climatic Change, 114 (3), 667-687. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4
• Lionello, P., Abrantes, F., Gacic, M., Planton, S., Trigo, R., Ulbrich, U. (2014). The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1679-1684. doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0666-0
• Maden, T.E. (2013). Havzalar arası su transferinde büyük adım: KKTC İçme Suyu Temin projesi. Ortadoğu Analiz, 5 (50), 102-111.
• Madsen, H., Lawrence, D., Lang, M., Martinkova, M., Kjeldsen, T.R. (2014). Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe. Journal of Hydrology, 519, 3634-3650. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.003
• Maibach, E., Myers, T., Leiserowitz, A. (2014). Climate scientists need to set the record straight: There is a scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is happening. Earth's Future, 2 (5), 295-298. doi:10.1002/2013EF000226
• McDonald, R.I., Green, P., Balk, D., Fekete, B.M., Revenga, C., Todd, M., Montgomery, M. (2011). Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108 (15), 6312-6317. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1011615108
• Önol, B., Ünal, Y.S. (2014). Assessment of climate change simulations over climate zones of Turkey. Regional Environmental Change, 14 (5), 1921-1935. doi: 10.1007/s10113-012-0335-0 Öztürk, K. (2002). Küresel iklim değişikliği ve Türkiye’ye olası etkileri. Gazi Üniversitesi Gazi Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, 22 (1), 47-65.
• Öztürk, M.Z. (2013). Kuzey Kıbrıs kıyılarının (Koruçam burnu-Zafer burnu-Zeytin burnu arasının) kuvaterner jeomorfolojisi. Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Çanakkale. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Öztürk, T., Ceber, Z.P., Türkeş, M., Kurnaz, M.L. (2015). Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs. International Journal of Climatology, 35 (14), 4276-4292. doi: 10.1002/joc.4285
• Padrón, R.S., Gudmundsson, L., Decharme, B., Ducharne, A., Lawrence, D.M., Mao, J., ... Seneviratne, S.I. (2020). Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change. Nature Geoscience, 13 (7), 477-481. doi: 10.1038/s41561-020-0594-1
• Payab, A.H., Türker, U. (2018). Analyzing temporal–spatial characteristics of drought events in the northern part of Cyprus. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 20 (4), 1553-1574. doi: 10.1007/s10668-017-9953-5 Philandras, C.M., Nastos, P.T., Kapsomenakis, J., Douvis, K.C., Tselioudis, G., Zerefos, C.S. (2011). Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11 (12), 3235-3250. doi: 10.5194/nhess-11-3235-2011
• Phillips Agboola, O., Egelioglu, F. (2012). Water scarcity in North Cyprus and solar desalination research: a review. Desalination and Water Treatment, 43 (1- 3), 29-42. doi: 10.1080/19443994.2012.672195
• Poschlod, B., Zscheischler, J., Sillmann, J., Wood, R.R., Ludwig, R. (2020). Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway. Weather and Climate Extremes, 28, 100253. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100253
• Price, C., Michaelides, S., Pashiardis, S., Alpert, P. (1999). Long term changes in diurnal temperature range in Cyprus. Atmospheric Research, 51 (2), 85-98. doi:10.1016/S0169-8095(99)00022-8
• Sağlamoğlu, A., Irvem, A. (2020). Regional drought analysis for the eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey using run and SPI method. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 26, 1256-1262.
• Sneyers, R. (1990). On the statistical analysis of series of observations. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Technical Note 43. Geneva: WMO.
• Sousa, P.M., Trigo, R.M., Aizpurua, P., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L., Garcia-Herrera, R. (2011). Trends and extremes of drought indices throughout the 20th century in the Mediterranean. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11 (1), 33-51. doi:10.5194/nhess-11-33-2011
• Şenol, C. (2020). Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti’nin hidrografik yapısı, su sorunu ve çözüm önerileri. Kıbrıs Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21 (45), 77-98.
• Thornthwaite, C.W. (1948). An Approach Toward a Rational Classification of Climate, Geographical Review, 38, 55-94.
• Türkeş, M. (1996). Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16 (9), 1057-1076. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199609)16:9<1057::AID-JOC75>3.0.CO;2-D
• Türkeş¸ M. (2003). Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation and aridity index series of Turkey. In Bolle, H.J. (ed.), Mediterranean climate - variability and trends (pp 181−213). Regional Climate Studies., Heidelberg: Springer.
• Türkeş, M. (2008). Küresel iklim değişikliği nedir? Temel kavramlar, nedenleri, gözlenen ve öngörülen değişiklikler. İklim Değişikliği ve Çevre, 1 (1), 26-37.
• Türkeş, M. (2010). Klimatoloji ve Meteoroloji. İstanbul: Kriter Yayınevi.
• Türkeş, M. (2012). Türkiye’de gözlenen ve öngörülen iklim değişikliği, kuraklık ve çölleşme. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi, 4 (2), 1-32. doi:10.1501/Csaum_0000000063
• Türkeş, M. (2020). Climate and Drought in Turkey. In Harmancioglu N., Altinbilek, D. (eds.), Water Resources of Turkey. (pp. 85-125), World Water Resources vol 2., Cham: Springer.
• Türkeş, M., Sarış, F. (2007). Trends and changes of mean, maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation series in Northern Cyprus. Journal of the Black Sea/Mediterranean Environment, 13, 281-305.
• Türkeş, M., Sümer, U.M., Demir, İ. (2002). Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999, International Journal of Climatology, 22 (8), 947-977. doi:10.1002/joc.777
• Türkeş, M., Koç, T., Sariş, F. (2009). Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology. 29 (8), 1056-1074. doi: 10.1002/joc.1768
• Yıldız, D. (2003). Akdeniz Havzası’nda Su Sorunları ve Türkiye. Ankara: Türk Mühendis ve Mimar Odaları Birliği (TMMOB) İnşaat Mühendisleri Odası (İMO) Ankara Şubesi.
• Yılmaz, E. (2020). Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti'ne su temin projelerinin hidropolitik açıdan değerlendirilmesi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Çankırı. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/Ulusal Tez Merkezi adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Zittis, G., Bruggeman, A., Camera, C. (2020). 21st century projections of extreme precipitation indicators for Cyprus. Atmosphere, 11 (4), 343. doi:10.3390/atmos11040343
• Zikos, D., Sorman, A.H., Lau, M. (2015). Beyond water security: Asecuritisation and identity in Cyprus. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 15 (3), 309-326. doi: 10.1007/s10784-015-9280-y