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Palmer Kuraklık İndisi’ne Göre İç Anadolu Bölgesi’nin Konya Bölümü’ndeki Kurak Dönemler ve Kuraklık Şiddeti

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 129 - 144, 01.08.2009
https://doi.org/10.1501/Cogbil_0000000102

Öz

Çalışma, İç Anadolu Bölgesi’nin Konya Bölümü’nde yer alan Konya, Karaman, Aksaray ve Karapınar istasyonlarındaki egemen kurak dönemlerin, kuraklıkların başlangıç ve bitişleri ile şiddetlerinin Palmer Kuraklık Şiddet İndisi (PDSI) kullanılarak belirlenmesine yöneliktir. PDSI, yağış, buharlaşma-terleme ve toprak su tutma kapasitesini (tarla kapasitesi) girdi olarak kullanır. Buharlaşma-terleme tutarı, aylık ortalama sıcaklık ve toplam yağış değerlerinden yararlanarak Thornthwaite yöntemi ile hesaplandı. Bu çerçevede, önce, istasyon kayıtlarının başlangıcından 2006 yılına kadarki PDSI değerleri, aylık toplam yağış, toprak su tutma kapasitesi ve hesaplanan evapotranspirasyon değerleri kullanılarak hesaplandı. Aylık PDSI ve Nem Anomali İndisi zaman dizilerinin incelenmesi yoluyla ulaşılan başlıca sonuçlar şunlardır: (i) Dört istasyon için belirlenen ortak kurak dönemlerde yağışlarda gerçekleşen azalmalar, % 30 ile % 80 arasında değişir. Yağıştaki azalmalar, özellikle kış ve sonbahar mevsimlerinde daha belirgindir. (ii) Hem kullanılabilir su tutarı (P-PE) hem de PDSI zaman dizilerinin Mann-Kendall sıra ilişki katsayısı çözümlemesine göre, dizilerde istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı herhangi bir eğilim bulunmamasına karşın, genel bir azalma eğiliminin varlığı (daha kurak koşullara doğru bir gidiş) belirgindir. (iii) 1972-1974 ve 1999-2001 kuraklıkları oldukça şiddetli yaşanmıştır

Kaynakça

  • Alley, W. N. (1984) ―The palmer Drought Severity Index limitations and assumptions‖, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23, 1001-1009.
  • Dalezios, N. R.; Papazafiriou, Z. G.; Papamichail, D. M.; Karacostas, T. S. (1991) ―Drought assessment for the potential of precipitation enhancement in northern Greece‖. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 44, 75-88.
  • Erinç, S. (1949) ―The climates of Turkey according to Thornthwaite's classification‖, Annals, Association of American Geographers, 39, 26–46.
  • Erinç, S. (1950) ―Climatic types and the variations of moisture regions in Turkey‖, The Geographical Review, 40, 224-235.
  • Erinç, S. (1959) ―Regional and seasonal distribution of climatic elements in Turkey and its dynamic-genetic background‖, Review of the Geographical Institute of the University of İstanbul, 5, 23-76.
  • Erinç, S. (1965) Yağış Müessiriyeti Üzerine Bir Deneme ve Yeni Bir İndis. İstanbul Üniversitesi Coğrafya Enstitüsü, 41, İstanbul.
  • Erinç, S.; Tümertekin, E. (1955) ―Variations in the amount of precipitation in Turkey‖, Review of the Geographical Institute of the University of İstanbul, 2, 173-176.
  • Karl, T. R. (1986) ―The sensitivity of the Palmer Severity Index and Palmer’s Z-Index to their calibration coefficients including potential evapotranspiration‖, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 25, 77-86.
  • McKee, T.B.; Doesken, N. J.; Kleist, J. (1993) ―The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales‖, Presented at the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Jan 17-23, Anaheim CA, 179-186.
  • Palmer, W. C. (1965) Meteorological Drought, Weather Bureau Research Paper No. 45, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
  • Sneyers, R. (1990) On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. WMO Technical Note 43, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
  • Sonmez, F. K.; Komuscu, A. U.; Erkan, A.; Turgu, E. (2005) ―An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the standardized precipitation index‖, Natural Hazards, 35, 243-264.
  • Tatli, H.; Dalfes, H. N.; Menteş, Ş. S. (2004) ―A statistical downscaling method for monthly total precipitation over Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology, 24, 161-180
  • Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948) ―An Approach toward a rational classification of climate‖, Geography Review, 38, 55-94.
  • Tümertekin, E. (1955) ―Time relationship between the wheat growing period and dry months in Turkey‖, Review of the Geographical Institute of the University of İstanbul, 2, 73–84.
  • Tümertekin, E. (1956) ―Some observations concerning dry farming in arid regions of Turkey‖, Review of the Geographical Institute of the University of İstanbul, 3, 19–30.
  • Türkeş, M. (1990) Türkiye'de Kurak Bölgeler ve Önemli Kurak Yıllar, Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Deniz Bilimleri ve Coğrafya Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
  • Türkeş, M. (1996) ―Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1057-1076.
  • Türkeş, M. (1998) ―Influence of geopotential heights, cyclone frequency and southern oscillation on rainfall variations in Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology, 18, 649–680.
  • Türkeş, M. (1999) ―Vulnerability of Turkey to desertification with respect to precipitation and aridity conditions‖, Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 23, 363-380.
  • Türkeş, M. (2003) ―Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation and aridity index series of Turkey‖, In: Bolle H-J (Ed.), Mediterranean Climate – Variability and Trends, Regional Climate Studies. Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, 181-213.
  • Türkeş, M. (2007a) ―Orta Kızılırmak Bölümü güney kesiminin (Kapadokya Yöresi) iklimi ve çölleşmeden etkilenebilirliği‖, Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 14, 75-99.
  • Türkeş, M. (2007b) ―Türkiye’nin kuraklığa, çölleşmeye eğilimi ve iklim değişikliği açısından değerlendirilmesi‖, Pankobirlik, 91, 38-47.
  • Türkeş, M. (2008) ―Gözlenen iklim değişiklikleri ve kuraklık: Nedenleri ve geleceği‖, Toplum ve Hekim, 23, 97-107.
  • Türkeş, M.; Erlat, E. (2003) ―Precipitation changes and variability in Turkey linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930-2000‖, International Journal of Climatology, 23, 1771-1796.
  • Türkeş, M.; Erlat, E. (2005) ―Climatological responses of winter precipitation in Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic oscillation during the period 1930–2001‖, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 81, 45–69.
  • Türkeş, M.; Erlat, E. (2006) ―Influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation on precipitation variability and changes in Turkey‖, Nuovo Cimento Della Societa Italiana Di Fisica C-Geophysics and Space Physics, 29, 117-135.
  • Türkeş, M; Koç, T.; Sarış, F. (2009) ―Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1056-1074.
  • Türkeş, M.; Sümer, U. M.; Demir, İ. (2002) ―Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999‖, International Journal of Climatology, 22, 947-977.
  • Türkeş, M.; Tatlı, H. (2008) ―Aşırı kurak ve nemli koşulların belirlenmesi için yeni bir standartlaştırılmış yağış indisi (yeni- SPI): Türkiye’ye uygulanması‖, IV. Atmosfer Bilimleri Sempozyumu Bildiri Kitabı, İ.T.Ü. Uçak ve Uzay Bilimleri Fakültesi, 25-28 Mart 2008, İstanbul, 528-538.
  • Türkeş, M.; Tatlı, H. (2009) ―Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1862.

Drought periods and severity over the Konya Sub-region of the Central Anatolia Region according to the Palmer Drought Index

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 129 - 144, 01.08.2009
https://doi.org/10.1501/Cogbil_0000000102

Öz

The study aims to determine major drought periods, their starting and ending times and severity at Konya, Karaman, Aksaray and Karapınar stations over the Konya sub-region of the Central Anatolia Region, using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The PDSI is based on precipitation, evapotranspiration and available water capacity of the soil (field capacity). Amount of the evapotranspiration was computed by the Thornthwaite’s method making use of monthly mean temperature and precipitation totals. In this frame, first, monthly PDSI values were calculated by using monthly precipitation and calculated evapotranspiration totals and available water capacity of the soil for the period from beginning of the station records to 2006. Major results reached by examining monthly PDSI and Moisture Anomaly Index time-series are as follows: (i) Decreases in the precipitation amounts in the common periods determined for four stations vary between 30% and 80%. Decreases of the precipitation during these periods are more evident particularly in winter and autumn seasons. (ii) According to the analysis of the Mann-Kendall rank correlation coefficient performed for both usable water amount (P-PE) and the PDSI time-series, although there is no any statistically significant trend in these series, a general decreasing trend (i.e. a run towards the drier conditions) is evident. (iii) The drought events of 1972-1974 and 1999-2001 were considerable severe

Kaynakça

  • Alley, W. N. (1984) ―The palmer Drought Severity Index limitations and assumptions‖, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23, 1001-1009.
  • Dalezios, N. R.; Papazafiriou, Z. G.; Papamichail, D. M.; Karacostas, T. S. (1991) ―Drought assessment for the potential of precipitation enhancement in northern Greece‖. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 44, 75-88.
  • Erinç, S. (1949) ―The climates of Turkey according to Thornthwaite's classification‖, Annals, Association of American Geographers, 39, 26–46.
  • Erinç, S. (1950) ―Climatic types and the variations of moisture regions in Turkey‖, The Geographical Review, 40, 224-235.
  • Erinç, S. (1959) ―Regional and seasonal distribution of climatic elements in Turkey and its dynamic-genetic background‖, Review of the Geographical Institute of the University of İstanbul, 5, 23-76.
  • Erinç, S. (1965) Yağış Müessiriyeti Üzerine Bir Deneme ve Yeni Bir İndis. İstanbul Üniversitesi Coğrafya Enstitüsü, 41, İstanbul.
  • Erinç, S.; Tümertekin, E. (1955) ―Variations in the amount of precipitation in Turkey‖, Review of the Geographical Institute of the University of İstanbul, 2, 173-176.
  • Karl, T. R. (1986) ―The sensitivity of the Palmer Severity Index and Palmer’s Z-Index to their calibration coefficients including potential evapotranspiration‖, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 25, 77-86.
  • McKee, T.B.; Doesken, N. J.; Kleist, J. (1993) ―The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales‖, Presented at the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Jan 17-23, Anaheim CA, 179-186.
  • Palmer, W. C. (1965) Meteorological Drought, Weather Bureau Research Paper No. 45, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
  • Sneyers, R. (1990) On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. WMO Technical Note 43, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
  • Sonmez, F. K.; Komuscu, A. U.; Erkan, A.; Turgu, E. (2005) ―An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the standardized precipitation index‖, Natural Hazards, 35, 243-264.
  • Tatli, H.; Dalfes, H. N.; Menteş, Ş. S. (2004) ―A statistical downscaling method for monthly total precipitation over Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology, 24, 161-180
  • Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948) ―An Approach toward a rational classification of climate‖, Geography Review, 38, 55-94.
  • Tümertekin, E. (1955) ―Time relationship between the wheat growing period and dry months in Turkey‖, Review of the Geographical Institute of the University of İstanbul, 2, 73–84.
  • Tümertekin, E. (1956) ―Some observations concerning dry farming in arid regions of Turkey‖, Review of the Geographical Institute of the University of İstanbul, 3, 19–30.
  • Türkeş, M. (1990) Türkiye'de Kurak Bölgeler ve Önemli Kurak Yıllar, Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Deniz Bilimleri ve Coğrafya Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
  • Türkeş, M. (1996) ―Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1057-1076.
  • Türkeş, M. (1998) ―Influence of geopotential heights, cyclone frequency and southern oscillation on rainfall variations in Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology, 18, 649–680.
  • Türkeş, M. (1999) ―Vulnerability of Turkey to desertification with respect to precipitation and aridity conditions‖, Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 23, 363-380.
  • Türkeş, M. (2003) ―Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation and aridity index series of Turkey‖, In: Bolle H-J (Ed.), Mediterranean Climate – Variability and Trends, Regional Climate Studies. Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, 181-213.
  • Türkeş, M. (2007a) ―Orta Kızılırmak Bölümü güney kesiminin (Kapadokya Yöresi) iklimi ve çölleşmeden etkilenebilirliği‖, Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 14, 75-99.
  • Türkeş, M. (2007b) ―Türkiye’nin kuraklığa, çölleşmeye eğilimi ve iklim değişikliği açısından değerlendirilmesi‖, Pankobirlik, 91, 38-47.
  • Türkeş, M. (2008) ―Gözlenen iklim değişiklikleri ve kuraklık: Nedenleri ve geleceği‖, Toplum ve Hekim, 23, 97-107.
  • Türkeş, M.; Erlat, E. (2003) ―Precipitation changes and variability in Turkey linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930-2000‖, International Journal of Climatology, 23, 1771-1796.
  • Türkeş, M.; Erlat, E. (2005) ―Climatological responses of winter precipitation in Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic oscillation during the period 1930–2001‖, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 81, 45–69.
  • Türkeş, M.; Erlat, E. (2006) ―Influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation on precipitation variability and changes in Turkey‖, Nuovo Cimento Della Societa Italiana Di Fisica C-Geophysics and Space Physics, 29, 117-135.
  • Türkeş, M; Koç, T.; Sarış, F. (2009) ―Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1056-1074.
  • Türkeş, M.; Sümer, U. M.; Demir, İ. (2002) ―Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999‖, International Journal of Climatology, 22, 947-977.
  • Türkeş, M.; Tatlı, H. (2008) ―Aşırı kurak ve nemli koşulların belirlenmesi için yeni bir standartlaştırılmış yağış indisi (yeni- SPI): Türkiye’ye uygulanması‖, IV. Atmosfer Bilimleri Sempozyumu Bildiri Kitabı, İ.T.Ü. Uçak ve Uzay Bilimleri Fakültesi, 25-28 Mart 2008, İstanbul, 528-538.
  • Türkeş, M.; Tatlı, H. (2009) ―Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey‖, International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1862.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA49FP97FC
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Murat Türkeş

Serap Akgündüz A. Bu kişi benim

Zerrin Demirörs Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ağustos 2009
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2009 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Türkeş, M., Akgündüz A., S., & Demirörs, Z. (2009). Palmer Kuraklık İndisi’ne Göre İç Anadolu Bölgesi’nin Konya Bölümü’ndeki Kurak Dönemler ve Kuraklık Şiddeti. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 129-144. https://doi.org/10.1501/Cogbil_0000000102

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