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Türkiye’nin Demografik Geçiş Sürecine Coğrafi Bir Yaklaşım

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 1 - 25, 01.04.2009
https://doi.org/10.1501/Cogbil_0000000096

Öz

Yakın insanlık tarihindeki esaslı sosyal ve ekonomik değişim modern toplumun dinamikleri olarak görülmektedir. Geçen yüzyıl boyunca nüfusun sosyo-ekonomik dönüşümü nedeniyle doğurganlık tüm dünyada ciddi biçimde düşmüştür. Ayrıca ölümlülükteki düşüşler dünyanın her yerinde doğuranlıktaki azalmalara öncülük etmiştir. Böylece demografik geçiş, küresel bir süreç olarak işlemiştir. Bu bağlamda nüfus çalışmalarında coğrafi sorgulamaların öneminin zamanla daha da arttığı belirtilebilir. Gelişmekte olan dünyada doğurganlığın beklenildiği gibi bir patern sergilemediği açıktır. Başka bir ifadeyle gelişmiş ülkelerin aksine gelişmekte olan ülkeler demografik geçişi hızlı bir biçimde tecrübe edinmişlerdir. Bu ülkelerden biri olan Türkiye’nin demografik geçiş modeli, ülkenin nüfus yapısının gelişmiş ülkelerin nüfus yapısına benzemeye başladığını göstermektedir. Bu makalenin amacı, doğurganlık ve ölümlülükteki il düzeyindeki düşüşleri demografik geçiş teorisi ışığında coğrafi yaklaşımla ortaya çıkarmaktır. Bu çalışma, Birleşmiş Milletler ve Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’nun yayımladığı nüfus istatistiklerine dayalı olarak yapılmıştır. Çalışmada nüfus sayımlarında yayımlanan çocuk-kadın oranlarındaki yüzdelik değişimler aracılığıyla illerin doğurganlık geçişine giriş paternleri belirlenmiştir. Sonuca ilişkin olarak özellikle yirminci yüzyılın ikinci yarısı boyunca doğurganlık ve ölümlülükteki düşüşlerin ulusal düzeyde yaygınlaştığı belirtilebilir. Ne var ki il düzeyindeki veriler, ülkede doğurganlık ve ölümlülükteki düşüşlerin esaslı bölgesel farklılıkların varlığına işaret ettiğini göstermektedir

Kaynakça

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  • Basu, A.M. (2002) “Why does education lead to lower fertility? A critical review of some of the possibilities”, World Development, 30, 1779-1790.
  • Becker, G.S. (1991) A Treatise on the Family, Enlarged ed., Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
  • Bhat, M. (1998) “ Micro and macro effects of child mortality on fertility: The case of India”, İçinde From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, Montgomery, M, Cohen, B. (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 339-383.
  • Bloom, D.E.; Canning, D.; Sevilla, J. (2003) The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
  • Bongaarts, J. (2002) “The end of the fertility transition in the developing world”, İçinde Completing the Fertility Transition, United Nations Population Division, New York, 288-307. (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/completingfertility/completingfertility.htm, 03.03.2005).
  • Bongaarts, J. (2003) “Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences”, Population Studies, 57, 321-336.
  • Bongaarts, J.; Watkins, S.C. (1996) “Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions”, Population and Development Review, 22, 639-682.
  • Bryant, J. (2007) “Theories of fertility decline and the evidence from development indicators”, Population and Development Review, 33, 101-127.
  • Caldwell, J.C. (2001) “The globalization of fertility behaviour”, Population and Development Review, 27, 93-115.
  • Caldwell, J.C.; Caldwell, P. (2001) “Regional paths to fertility transition”, Journal of Population Research, 18, 91-117.
  • Caldwell, J.C.; Orubuloye, I.O.; Caldwell, P. (1992) “Fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition?, Population and Development Review, 18, 211-242.
  • Casterline, J.B. (2001a) “Diffusion processes and fertility transition: Introduction”, İçinde Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives, Casterline, J.B. (ed.), National Academy Press, Washington DC, 1-38.
  • Casterline, J.B. (2001b) “The pace of fertility transition: National patterns in the second half of the twentieth century” İçinde Global Fertility Transition, Bulatao, R.A., Casterline, J.B. (eds.), Population and Development Review, supplement to vol.27, Population Council, New York, 17-52.
  • Cleland, J. (2001a) “Potatoes and pills: An overview of innovation-diffusion contributions to explanations of fertility decline”, İçinde Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives, Casterline, J.B. (ed.), National Academy Press, Washington DC, 39-65.
  • Cleland, J. (2001b) “The effects of improved survival on fertility: A reassessment”, İçinde Global Fertility Transition, Bulatao, R.A., Casterline, J.B. (eds.), Population and Development Review, supplement to vol.27, Population Council, New York, 60-92.
  • Cleland, J.; Wilson, C. (1987) “Demand theories of the fertility transition: An iconoclastic view”, Population Studies, 41, 5- 30.
  • Coale, A. (1973) “The demographic transition”, İçinde International Population Conference, Vol.1, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Liège, 53-72.
  • Davis, K. (1945) “The world demographic transition”, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 237, 1-11.
  • Davis, K. (1946) “Human fertility in India”, American Journal of Sociology, 52, 243-254.
  • Davis, K. (1963) “The theory of change and response in modern demographic history”, Population Index, 29: 345-366.
  • Demir, Ö.; Acar, M. (2005) Sosyal Bilimler Sözlüğü, Altıncı baskı, Aydan Matbaası, Ankara.
  • Diamond, I.; Newby, M.; Varle, S. (1999) “Female education and fertility: examining the links”, İçinde Critical Perspectives on Schooling and Fertility in the Developing World, Bledsoe, C.H., Casterline, J.B., Johnson-Kuhn J.A., Haaga, J.G. (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington DC, 23-48.
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  • Durlauf, S.N.; Walker, J.R. (2001) “Social interactions and fertility transitions”, İçinde Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives, Casterline, J.B. (ed.), National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 115-137.
  • Erdönmez, P.A. (2007) “Küresel demografik değişim süreci ve finansal sektör üzerindeki etkileri”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 62, 59-70.
  • Ergöçmen, B.; Hancıoğlu, A.; Ünalan, T. (1995) Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Aile Plânlaması ve Çocuk Ölümlülüğündeki Değişmeler: Ulusal Demografi Araştırmaları ve Nüfus Sayımları Bulguları, HÜNEE, Ankara.
  • Ethelston, S. (1999) “Water and women: The Middle East in demographic transition”, Middle East Report, 213, 8-12+44.
  • Guilmoto, C.Z.; Rajan, S.I. (2001) “Spatial patterns of fertility transition in Indian districts” Population and Development Review, 27, 713-738.
  • Haines, M. (1998) “The relationship between infant and child mortality and fertility: Some historical and contemporary evidence from the United States”, İçinde From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, Montgomery, M, Cohen, B. (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 227-253.
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A geographical approach to Turkey’s demographic transition process

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 1 - 25, 01.04.2009
https://doi.org/10.1501/Cogbil_0000000096

Öz

Substantial social and economic changes in recent human history can be seen as the dynamics of modern society. Fertility declined dramatically throughout the world because of the socio-economic transformation of the population during the past century. Meanwhile, mortality decline everywhere appears to have spearheaded to the fertility decline. Thus, the demographic transition has been comprehended as a global process. In this sense, it can be stress out that those geographic investigations in population studies gained much more importance in the course of time. In the developing world fertility did not seem to follow expected pattern. In other words, contrary to the developed countries, the developing world has experienced the demographic transition rapidly. Turkey’s demographic transition model, as one of the developing countries, indicates that the population structure of its country has started to converge to the population structure of developed countries. With a geographical approach, the aim of the present study is to reveal fertility and mortality declines at a provincial level in the light of the demographic transition theory. This study mainly based on population statistics issued by the United Nations, and the Turkish Statistical Institute. Onset of fertility transition-patterns of the provinces were determined by means of the percentage changes in child-woman ratios that had been issued following the censuses. It can be pointed out that, referring to the conclusion, fertility and mortality declines have been pervasive at a national level especially throughout the second part of the twentieth century. But in fact, the province-level data indicate that substantial regional variations in fertility and mortality reductions exist in the country

Kaynakça

  • Allman, J. (1980) “The demographic transition in the Middle East and North Africa”, International Journal of Middle East Studies, 12, 277-301.
  • Basu, A.M. (2002) “Why does education lead to lower fertility? A critical review of some of the possibilities”, World Development, 30, 1779-1790.
  • Becker, G.S. (1991) A Treatise on the Family, Enlarged ed., Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
  • Bhat, M. (1998) “ Micro and macro effects of child mortality on fertility: The case of India”, İçinde From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, Montgomery, M, Cohen, B. (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 339-383.
  • Bloom, D.E.; Canning, D.; Sevilla, J. (2003) The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
  • Bongaarts, J. (2002) “The end of the fertility transition in the developing world”, İçinde Completing the Fertility Transition, United Nations Population Division, New York, 288-307. (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/completingfertility/completingfertility.htm, 03.03.2005).
  • Bongaarts, J. (2003) “Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences”, Population Studies, 57, 321-336.
  • Bongaarts, J.; Watkins, S.C. (1996) “Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions”, Population and Development Review, 22, 639-682.
  • Bryant, J. (2007) “Theories of fertility decline and the evidence from development indicators”, Population and Development Review, 33, 101-127.
  • Caldwell, J.C. (2001) “The globalization of fertility behaviour”, Population and Development Review, 27, 93-115.
  • Caldwell, J.C.; Caldwell, P. (2001) “Regional paths to fertility transition”, Journal of Population Research, 18, 91-117.
  • Caldwell, J.C.; Orubuloye, I.O.; Caldwell, P. (1992) “Fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition?, Population and Development Review, 18, 211-242.
  • Casterline, J.B. (2001a) “Diffusion processes and fertility transition: Introduction”, İçinde Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives, Casterline, J.B. (ed.), National Academy Press, Washington DC, 1-38.
  • Casterline, J.B. (2001b) “The pace of fertility transition: National patterns in the second half of the twentieth century” İçinde Global Fertility Transition, Bulatao, R.A., Casterline, J.B. (eds.), Population and Development Review, supplement to vol.27, Population Council, New York, 17-52.
  • Cleland, J. (2001a) “Potatoes and pills: An overview of innovation-diffusion contributions to explanations of fertility decline”, İçinde Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives, Casterline, J.B. (ed.), National Academy Press, Washington DC, 39-65.
  • Cleland, J. (2001b) “The effects of improved survival on fertility: A reassessment”, İçinde Global Fertility Transition, Bulatao, R.A., Casterline, J.B. (eds.), Population and Development Review, supplement to vol.27, Population Council, New York, 60-92.
  • Cleland, J.; Wilson, C. (1987) “Demand theories of the fertility transition: An iconoclastic view”, Population Studies, 41, 5- 30.
  • Coale, A. (1973) “The demographic transition”, İçinde International Population Conference, Vol.1, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Liège, 53-72.
  • Davis, K. (1945) “The world demographic transition”, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 237, 1-11.
  • Davis, K. (1946) “Human fertility in India”, American Journal of Sociology, 52, 243-254.
  • Davis, K. (1963) “The theory of change and response in modern demographic history”, Population Index, 29: 345-366.
  • Demir, Ö.; Acar, M. (2005) Sosyal Bilimler Sözlüğü, Altıncı baskı, Aydan Matbaası, Ankara.
  • Diamond, I.; Newby, M.; Varle, S. (1999) “Female education and fertility: examining the links”, İçinde Critical Perspectives on Schooling and Fertility in the Developing World, Bledsoe, C.H., Casterline, J.B., Johnson-Kuhn J.A., Haaga, J.G. (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington DC, 23-48.
  • DİE (Devlet İstatistik Enstitüsü), (1995) Türkiye Nüfusu, 1923-1994 Demografi Yapısı ve Gelişimi, DİE Yayınları, Yayın No. 1716, Ankara.
  • DİE, (2002) 2000 Genel Nüfus Sayımı: Nüfusun Sosyal ve Ekonomik Nitelikleri (81 il bülteni), DİE Yayınları, Ankara.
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  • Doğanay, H. (1997) Türkiye Beşeri Coğrafyası, Milli Eğitim Bakanlığı Yayınları No: 2982, Milli Eğitim Basımevi, İstanbul.
  • Durlauf, S.N.; Walker, J.R. (2001) “Social interactions and fertility transitions”, İçinde Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives, Casterline, J.B. (ed.), National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 115-137.
  • Erdönmez, P.A. (2007) “Küresel demografik değişim süreci ve finansal sektör üzerindeki etkileri”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 62, 59-70.
  • Ergöçmen, B.; Hancıoğlu, A.; Ünalan, T. (1995) Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Aile Plânlaması ve Çocuk Ölümlülüğündeki Değişmeler: Ulusal Demografi Araştırmaları ve Nüfus Sayımları Bulguları, HÜNEE, Ankara.
  • Ethelston, S. (1999) “Water and women: The Middle East in demographic transition”, Middle East Report, 213, 8-12+44.
  • Guilmoto, C.Z.; Rajan, S.I. (2001) “Spatial patterns of fertility transition in Indian districts” Population and Development Review, 27, 713-738.
  • Haines, M. (1998) “The relationship between infant and child mortality and fertility: Some historical and contemporary evidence from the United States”, İçinde From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, Montgomery, M, Cohen, B. (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 227-253.
  • Hançerlioğlu, O. (2007) Toplumbilim Sözlüğü, Dördüncü basım, Remzi Kitabevi, İstanbul.
  • Heer, D.M.; Turner, E.S. (1965) “Areal differences in Latin American fertility”, Population Studies, 18, 279-292.
  • Hirschman, C. (2001) “Comment: Globalization and theories of fertility decline”, İçinde Global Fertility Transition, Bulatao, R.A., Casterline, J.B. (eds.), Population and Development Review, supplement to vol.27, Population Council, New York, 116-125.
  • HÜNEE (Hacettepe Üniversitesi Nüfus Etütleri Enstitüsü), (1975), Türkiye’de Nüfus, Ankara.
  • HÜNEE, (1999) Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması 1998, HÜNEE Yayınları, Ankara.
  • HÜNEE, (2004) Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması (TNSA) 2003, HÜNEE Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Kirk, D. (1971) “A new demographic transition ?”, İçinde Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications, Vol.2, Research paper, John Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 123-147.
  • Kirk, D. (1996) “Demographic transition theory”, Population Studies, 50, 361-387.
  • Knodel, J. (1978) “European populations in the past: Family-level relations”, İçinde The Effects of Infant and Child Mortality on Fertility, Preston, S. (ed.), Academic Press, New York, 21-45.
  • Kongar, E. (2004) 21. Yüzyılda Türkiye: 2000’li Yıllarda Türkiye’nin Toplumsal Yapısı, 34. basım, Remzi Kitabevi, İstanbul.
  • Koray, S. (1997) “Dynamics of demography and development in Turkey: Implications to the potential for migration to Europe”, The Turkish Journal of Population Studies, 19, 37-55.
  • Lesthaeghe, R. (1977) The Decline of Belgian Fertility, 1800-1970, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
  • Marshall, G. (2003) Sosyoloji Sözlüğü, Çevirenler: Osman Akınhay ve Derya Kömürcü, Ertem Matbaası, Ankara.
  • Mason, K.O. (1997) “Explaining fertility transitions”, Demography, 34, 443-454.
  • Mathiessen, P.C.; McCann, J.C. (1978) “The role of mortality in the European fertility transition: Aggregate-level relations”, İçinde The Effects of Infant and Child Mortality on Fertility, Preston, S. (ed.), Academic Press, New York, 47-68.
  • Meir, A. (1986) “Demographic transition theory: A neglected aspect of the Nomadism-Sedentarism continuum”, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 11: 199-211.
  • Montgomery, M.; Cohen, B. (1998) From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
  • Morrill, R. (1993) “Development, diversity and regional demographic variability in the U.S.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 83, 406-433.
  • Notestein, F.W. (1953) “Economic problems of population change”, İçinde Proceeding of the Eighth International Conference of Agricultural Economist, Oxford University Press, New York, 13-31.
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  • Özgür, E.M. (1998) Türkiye Nüfus Coğrafyası, GMC Basın Yayın Ltd. Şti, Ankara.
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  • Öztürk, M. (2009) Sağlık Düzeyi Ölçütleri (http://www.karabuksaglik.gov.tr, 02.01.2009)
  • Palloni, A.; Rafalimanana, H. (1999) “The effects of infant mortality on fertility revisited: New evidence from Latin America”, Demography, 36, 41-58.
  • Peters, G.L.; Larkin, R.P. (2005) Population Geography: Problems, Concepts, and Prospects, Kendall/Hunt Publishing, USA.
  • Preston, S. (1978) “Introduction”, İçinde The Effects of Infant and Child Mortality on Fertility, Preston, S. (ed.), Academic Press, New York, 1-17.
  • Reed, H.; Briere, R.; Casterline, J. (1999) The Role of Diffusion Processes in Fertility Change in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
  • Reher, D.S. (2004) “The demographic transition revisited as a global process”, Population, Space and Place, 10, 19-41.
  • Reher, D.S.; Ortega, J.A.; Sanz-Gimeno, A. (2008) “Intergenerational transmission of reproductive traits in Spain during the demographic transition”, Human Nature, 19, 23-43.
  • Reher, D.S.; Sanz-Gimeno, A. (2007) “Rethinking historical reproductive change: Insights from longitudinal data for a Spanish town”, Population and Development Review, 33, 703-727.
  • Rosero-Bixby, L. (1998) “Child mortality and fertility transition: Aggregate and multilevel evidence from Costa Rica”, İçinde From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, Montgomery, M, Cohen, B. (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 384-410.
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  • Shorter, F.; Macura, M. (1982) Trends in Fertility and Mortality in Turkey, 1935-1975, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
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  • Üner, S. (1972) Nüfusbilim Sözlüğü, Mars Ticaret ve Sanayi Anonim Şirketi, Hacettepe ÜniversitesiYayınları D-17, Ankara.
  • Üner, S. (1984) Türkiye Nüfusu, Boyutlar, Sorunlar, Yorumlar, HÜNEE Yayınları, Ankara.
  • van de Kaa, D.J. (1996) “Anchored narratives: The story and findings of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility, Population Studies, 50, 389-432.
  • van de Walle, F. (1986) “Infant mortality and the European demographic transition”, İçinde The Decline of Fertility in Europe, Coale, A.J., Watkins, S.C. (eds.), Princeton University Press, Princeton, 201-233.
  • Watkins, S.C. (1987) “The fertility transition: Europe and the Third World compared”, Sociological Forum, 2, 645-673.
  • Weeks, J.R. (2002) Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues, Wadsworth/Thomson Learning Press, Belmont.
  • Wortham, R.A. (2002) “Spatial differences in fertility decline in Kenya: Evidence from recent fertility surveys”, The Social Science Journal, 39, 265-276.
  • Yavuz, S. (2005) “Fertility transition and progression to third birth in Turkey”, Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Working Paper No. WP-2005-028, Rostock, 1-26 (http://www.demogr.mpg.de., 12.12.2006).
  • Yavuz, S. (2006) “Completing the fertility transition: Third birth developments by language groups in Turkey”, Demographic Research, 15, 435-460.
  • Yüceşahin, M.M.; Özgür, E.M. (2008) “Regional fertility differences in Turkey: Persistent high fertility in the southeast”, Population, Space and Place, 14, 135-158.
  • Yüksel, Y. (2007) Türkiye’de Demografik Geçiş Süreci ve Sosyal Politikalar, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı, Uzmanlık Tezi, Yayın No: 2732, Ankara.
Toplam 86 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA32KB88EG
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

M. Murat Yüceşahin

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Nisan 2009
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2009 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Yüceşahin, M. M. (2009). Türkiye’nin Demografik Geçiş Sürecine Coğrafi Bir Yaklaşım. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 7(1), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1501/Cogbil_0000000096