Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Belirleyicilerinin Cezalandırmalı Regresyon Yöntemleri ile Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1996–2022 dönemini ele alarak Türkiye’deki DYY girişlerinin temel belirleyicilerini incelemektedir. Çalışmada Ridge, Lasso ve Elastic Net tahmin yöntemleri kullanılmaktadır. Makroekonomik, kurumsal, finansal ve işgücü piyasası göstergelerini kapsayan kapsamlı bir veri setinden yararlanılarak yapılan analiz, DYY girişlerinin belirleyicilerine ilişkin sağlam kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Tüm model sonuçları, kişi başına düşen reel GSYH’nin en güçlü ve istikrarlı pozitif belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymakta; bu durum, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümenin yatırım kararlarındaki merkezi rolünü vurgulamaktadır. Ticari açıklık ve parasal derinlik göstergeleri de tutarlı fakat sınırlı düzeyde pozitif etkiler sergilemektedir. Buna karşılık, enflasyon ve vergi yükü göstergeleri kalıcı olumsuz etkiler yaratmakta; bu durum, makroekonomik istikrarsızlık ve mali baskıların yabancı sermaye girişleri üzerinde caydırıcı rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Teorik açıdan önemine rağmen, kurumsal kalite ve politika belirsizliği göstergelerinin Türkiye bağlamında zayıf ya da ihmal edilebilir düzeyde açıklayıcı güce sahip olduğu saptanmıştır. Bu bulgu, teorik beklentiler ile ampirik gerçeklikler arasındaki ayrışmaya işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım
• Makine Öğrenmesi
• Kurumsal Kalite
• Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomi

Identifying the Drivers of FDI in Türkiye Using Penalized Regression Techniques

Öz

This study examines the fundamental determinants of FDI inflows to Türkiye by analyzing the period 1996–2022. The study employs Ridge, Lasso, and Elastic Net estimation methods. Drawing on a comprehensive dataset that encompasses macroeconomic, institutional, financial, and labor market indicators, the analysis provides robust evidence on the determinants of FDI inflows. The results of all model estimations consistently demonstrate that real GDP per capita is the most powerful and stable positive determinant, emphasizing the central role of sustainable economic growth in shaping investment decisions. Trade openness and monetary depth also exhibit consistent yet modest positive effects. Conversely, inflation and tax burden emerge as persistent negative influences, indicating that macroeconomic instability and fiscal pressures act as deterrents to foreign capital inflows. Despite their theoretical significance, indicators of institutional quality and policy uncertainty are found to have weak or negligible explanatory power in the Turkish context. This finding points to a divergence between theoretical expectations and empirical realities.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investment
• Machine Learning
• Institutional Quality
• Developing Economy

Kaynakça

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