Belirsizliğin Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkilerinin Tahmin Edilmesi

Yıl 2019, , 30 - 53, 01.05.2019

Gözde Gürgün

https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.559372

Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için temel bileşen analizi yöntemi aracılığıyla,
üç ana finansal piyasadan ve Belirsizlik Anketi’nden belirsizliği temsil eden
bir dizi değişken kullanılarak bir belirsizlik ölçütü oluşturulmuştur.
Ardından, bu ölçütü kullanılarak, belirsizlik şoklarının Türkiye ekonomisi
üzerindeki etkilerini tahmin etmek için bir vektör otoregresyon modeli
kurulmuştur. Sonuçlar, belirsizlik şoklarının sanayi üretimdeki düşüş, tüketici
güveninde bozulma ve işsizlik, enflasyon ve kredi faiz oranlarındaki artış ile
ilişkili olduğuna dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Belirsizlik şoklarının etkileri,
ekonomik aktivitede düşüşe enflasyonda ise yükselişe neden olan arz şoklarına
benzer görünmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Temel bileşen analizi, Türkiye ekonomisi, belirsizlik, vektör otoregresyon

Estimating Effects of Uncertainty on the Turkish Economy

Öz

In this paper, an uncertainty measure for Turkey is developed through
principal component analysis based on a number of uncertainty proxies from
three main financial markets and the Expectations Survey. Then, using this
measure, a vector autoregression model is constructed to estimate the effects
of uncertainty shocks on the Turkish economy. The results present evidence that
uncertainty shocks are associated with a fall in industrial production,
worsening consumer confidence, and rises in unemployment, inflation and credit
interest rates. Uncertainty shocks seem similar to supply shocks, which cause
economic activity to fall and inflation to rise.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Principal component analysis, Turkish economy, uncertainty, vector autoregression

Kaynakça

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