Ekonomi Tarihinde Zamanın Miktarlarla Mütalaası: 19.YY. İzmir (Smyrna) Limanı Dış Ticaret Verileri Dahilinde Box-Jenkins ARIMA Yaklaşımının Performansı

Öz

Zaman-serisi tahlilleri genelde araştırma konusunu temsil eden unsurlara dair farklı tahmin yönergeleri kullanmaktadır. Daha güncel uygulama alanları yanısıra, ekonomi tarihi araştırmaları, özellikle bulguları arasında sayısallaştırılabilir gözlemler söz konusu ise, aynı tahlil yöntemi için olumlu itibar görmeye başlamış bir diğer araştırma alanı olarak tanımlanabilir. Ancak, veri kümelerinin kabul edilebilir eşik değerler doğrultusunda gerekli örneklem büyüklüğüne sahip olduğu güncel araştırma alanlarına tezat bir biçimde, ekonomi tarihi araştırmalarında nadir olarak yeterli miktarda gözlem sayısına ulaşılabilmektedir. Bu türden kısıtlı miktarlar çoğunlukla çokdeğişkenli (multivariate) tekniklere işaret ediyor olsa dahi, yine de farklı tekdeğişkenli (univariate) teknikler aynı araştırmalar için olumlu sonuçlar üretebilmektedir. Benzeri biçimde, bu çalışmada, zaman serisi tahlili konusundaki bilinen ilklerden olan Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) yaklaşımı, Smyrna (İzmir) limanı dış ticareti üzerine derlenmiş tarihi bir veri kümesi olan 19. yüzyıl göstergelerine uygulanmakta ve uygulamaya konu tekdeğişkenli tekniklere dair performans incelenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Smyrna(İzmir) Limanı 19. YY. Dış Ticaret Verileri
• Ekonomi Tarihi
• Ekonomi Tarihinde Zaman Serisi Tahlili
• Entegre Otoregresiv Hareketli Ortalamalar (ARIMA)

Considering Time by Quantities in Economic History: The Performance of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach on the 19th Century Smyrna Harbor Foreign Trade Data

Öz

The time-series analysis usually undertakes various estimation procedures by utilizing the quantifiable representations of the research phenomenon. The economic history research, beside the contemporary others, gradually becomes another well repudiated discipline for the same approach especially in cases where the quantifiable observations reside within their findings. However, contrasting with the research areas for which the availability of data sets succinctly reach to the threshold values in terms of sample sizes, in economic history research rarely sufficient amount of observations would be found available. The limiting quantities is often about the multivariate considerations where still various univariate techniques would yield beneficial results. In the same favor, herein, one of the leading approaches, namely the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to the time-series analysis is applied to the 19th century foreign trade figures compiled for the Smyrna (İzmir) harbor as a historical data-set and the performance of utilized univariate techniques is questioned.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• The 19th Century Foreign Trade Data of Smyrna(İzmir) harbor
• Economic History
• Time series Analysis in Economic History
• Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA)

Kaynakça

1. Anderson, O.D.(1977) “The Box-Jenkins Approach to Time Series Analysis”, R.A.I.R.O. Operations Research, Vol(11/1):3-29.
2. Benham, F. (1940) "The Terms of Trade", Economica, Vol.(7/28):360-376
3. Bhagwati, J. & H.G. Johnson (1960) "Notes on Some Controversies in the Theory of International Trade", The Economic Journal, Vol.(70/277):74-93
4. Box, G.E.P. (1966) "Use and Abuse of Regression", Technometrics, Vol(8)4:625-629.
5. Box, G.E.P. and D.A. Pierce (1970) "Distribution of Residual Autocorrelations in Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average Time Series Models", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol(65)332:1509-1526.
6. Box, G.E.P., G.M. Jenkins and G.C. Reinsel (1994) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, UpperSaddleRiver, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 3rd ed.
7. Bratt, E.C. (1938) “The Divisibility of Time Series”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol.(5/2):79-92
8. Burke III, E. (2013) "Toward a Comparative History of the Modern Mediterranean , 1750–1919", Journal of World History, Vol.(23/4):897-939.

9. Caldwell, J.G. (1971) "The Box-Jenkins Forecasting Technique", (Reformatted September 2006), Online Publication, http://www.foundationwebsite.org/BoxJenkins.htm
10. Currie,J.M. et.al.(1971) "The Concept of Economic Surplus and Its Use in Economic Analysis", The Economic Journal, Vol.(81/324):741-799
11. Das Gupta, A. K. (1954) "Marshall's Measure of "Net Benefit" From Foreign Trade", Indian Economic Review, Vol.(2/2):25-33
12. De Gooijer, J. G. and R. J. Hyndman (2006) "25 Years of Time Series Forecasting", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol(22)443–473
13. Dridi, J. and K. Zieschang (2004) “Export And Import Price indexes”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol(51/1):157-194
14. Durbin, J. & G.S. Watson (1950), “Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression I.”, Biometrika, Vol(37):409-428.
15. Durbin, J. & G.S. Watson (1951), “Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression II.”, Biometrika, Vol(38):159-178.
16. Enke, S. (1961) “Some Gains from Trade in Producer Goods”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.(75/4):635-642
17. Ezekiel, M. (1938) “The Cobweb Theorem”, Quarterly Journal Of Economics , 255-280.
18. Fels, R. (1951) “Methodology of Research on the Business Cycle”, Southern Economic Journal, Vol.(17/4):397-408
19. Frangakis-Syrett, E. (1988a), “Trade Between Ottoman Empire and The Western Europe: The Case of İzmir in the Eighteenth Century”, New Perspectives on Turkey, Vol.(2/1):1-18
20. Frangakis-Syrett, E. (1988b), “The port of Smyrna in the nineteenth century”, in C.Svolopoulos vd. (ed.) Southeast European Maritime Commerce and Naval Policies, Thessaloniki, 261-272
21. Frangakis-Syrett, E. (2001), “The Making of an Ottoman port: The quay of İzmir in the nineteenth century”, Journal of Transport History, Vol.(22/1):23-46
22. George G. (1943) “Kondratieff's Theory of Long Cycles”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.(25/4):203-220
23. Graham, F.D. (1932) "The Theory of International Values", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.(46/4):581-616
24. Haberler, G. (1955) "A Survey Of International Trade Theory", Special Papers In International Economics, No. 1, Princeton University
25. Hibbs, D.A. Jr. (1973-1974) “Problems of Statistical Estimation and Causal Inference in Time-Series Regression Models”, Sociological Methodology, Vol.(5/1973 – 1974):252-308
26. Hines, W.W. and D.C. Montgomery (1990) Probability and Statistics in Engineering and Management Science, 3rd Ed., John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
27. Hood, W.C. (1948) “Some Aspects of the Treatment of Time in Economic Theory”, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science / Revue canadienne d'Economique et de Science politique, Vol.(14/4):453-468
28. Iggers, G.G. (1997) Historiography in the Twentieth Century: From Scientific Objectivity to the Postmodern Challenge, Wesleyan University Press, Middletown/USA (Türkçe çeviri, Güven G.Ç.(çev.) Bilimsel Nesnellikten Postmodernizme Yirminci Yüzyılda Tarihyazımı, Tarih Vakfı Yurt Yayınları, No:96, 2003)
29. Issawi, C. (1980) The Economic History of Turkey 1800-¬1914, The University of Chicago Press, USA
30. Issawi, C. (1966) The Economic History of The Middle East, 1800-¬1914:A Book of Readings, (ed.) The University of Chicago Press, USA
31. Jackson, M. (2012) “Cosmopolitan Smyrna: Illuminating Or Obscuring Cultural Histories?", The Geographical Review, Vol(102/3):337-349
32. Jaffé, W. et.al. (1948) "Discussion - Papers and Proceedings of the Sixtieth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1948)", The American Economic Review, Vol.(38/2):19-32
33. Koopmans, T.C. (1947) “Measurement Without Theory”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.(29/3):161-172
34. Küçükkalay, A. M. (2008), “Imports to Smyrna between 1794 and 1802: New Statistics from the Ottoman Sources”, Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient, V.(51):487-512
35. Küçükkalay, A. M. and N. Elibol (2006), “Ottoman Imports in the Eighteenth Century: Smyrna (1771–72)”, Middle Eastern Studies, V.(42/5):723 – 740
36. Kurmuş, O. (2007), Emperyalizmin Türkiye'ye Girişi, 1. Ed. Bilim Yayınları (1974), 3. Ed. Savaş Yayınları (1982), 4. Ed. Yordam Yayınları.
37. Kuznets, S. (1940) “Schumpeter's Business Cycles”, The American Economic Review, Vol.(30/2):257-271.
38. Kuznets, S. (1928) “On the Analysis of Time Series”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.(23/164):398-410.
39. Matridakis, S. and M. Hibon (1997) "ARMA Models and the Box-Jenkins Methodology", Journal of Forecasting, Vol(16)147:163
40. Newbold, P. (1975) "The Principles of the Box-Jenkins Approach", Operational Research Quarterly Vol(26)2(ii):397-412
41. NIST (2003) Engineering Statistics Handbook, NIST-SEMATECH.
42. North, D.C., (1977) “The New Economic History After Twenty Years”, The American Behavioral Scientist, Vol(21/2):187.
43. Pamuk, Ş. (2010), The Ottoman Empire and European Capitalism, 1820-1913:Trade, Investment and Production, Cambridge (Türkçe Baskı : Osmanlı Ekonomisi ve Dünya Kapitalizmi:1820-1913, 1984 Yurt Yayınları, Ankara)
44. Paul, M.T. (2018) “The Issues and Implications About the Volatility of the Stock and the Bond Prices and Their Returns and the Volatility of Interest Rates and Inflation - Which Are Being Researched in Finance and Macro-Monetary Economics Literature: A Survey”, Applied Economics and Finance, Vol. (5/2):125-142.
45. Ramsey, F.L. (1974) "Characterization of The Partial Autocorrelation Function", The Annals of Statistics Vol(2/6):1296-1301.
46. Rostow, W.W. (1951) “The Historical Analysis of the Terms of Trade”, The Economic History Review, New Series, Vol.(4/1):53-76
47. Rostow, W.W. (1975) “Kondratieff, Schumpeter, and Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited”, The Journal of Economic History, Vol.(35/4):719-753
48. Schroeder, L.D., D.L. Sjoquist and P. E. Stephan (1986) Understanding Regression Analysis:An Introductory Guide, Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences(07-057), Sage.
49. Schumpeter, J.A.(1935) “The Analysis of Economic Change”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.(17/4):2-10.
50. Stevens, R.W. (1951) "New Ideas in the Theory of International Trade", The American Economic Review, Vol.(41/3):369-388
51. Tintner, G. (1940) “The Analysis of Economic Time Series”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, (35/209-Part1):93-100
52. Tukey, J.W., (1961) “Discussion, Emphasizing The Connection Between Analysis Of Variance And Spectrum Analysis”, Technometrics, Vol(3):191-219.
53. Wold, H.A. (1938) Study in the Analysis of Stationary Time Series, Stockholm: Almquist and Wiksell
54. Yılmaz, Ş. (2010) Dış Ticaret Kuramlarının Evrimi, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara.
55. Young, A.A. (1924) "Marshall On Consumers' Surplus in International Trade", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.(39/1):144-150
56. Yule, G. U., (1927) "On a Method of Investigating Periodicities in Disturbed Series, with Special Reference to Wolfer's Sunspot Numbers," Philosophical Transactions, (A 226 July 1927):267-98
57. Yürekli, S. (2019) 19. Yüzyıl Osmanlı İmparatorluğu Dış Ticareti Üzerine Bir Deneme: İzmir Limanı Örneği (1865-1912), Lambert Academic Publishing, Germany [(1992) 19. Yüzyıl Osmanlı İmparatorluğu Dış Ticareti Üzerine Bir Deneme: İzmir Limanı Örneği (1865-1912), Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Gazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara].