Türkiye Elektrik Piyasasında Merit Sınıflandırma Etkisinin Test Edilmesi: Rüzgar Penetrasyonunun Gün Öncesi Elektrik Fiyatlarına Etkisi

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 1, 133 - 156, 01.05.2019

İstemi Berk , Erdost Torun

https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.559394

Öz

Son destekleme mekanizmaları sayesinde,
yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının, özellikle rüzgar enerjisinin, Türkiye
elektrik üretimindeki payı önemli ölçüde artmıştır. Artan yenilenebilir
penetrasyonunun elektrik fiyatlarını düşürmesi beklenmektedir ve bu merit
sınıflandırma etkisi olarak bilinmektedir. Bu makalenin temel amacı Türk
elektrik piyasasında merit sınıflandırma etkisinin test edilmesidir. Bu
bağlamda, Türkiye gün öncesi elektrik piyasası takas fiyatı ve rüzgar temelli
elektrik üretimi 2011 ile 2018 arası dönemi verilerini içeren günlük veri seti
üzerine dalgacık dönüşümlü parametrik olmayan Granger nedensellik testi
uygulanmıştır. Genel sonuçlar Türkiye elektrik piyasasında rüzgarın merit
sınıflandırma etkisini doğrulamaktadır. Ayrıca, eksi yönlü nedenselliğin
gücünün farklı alt dönemlerde şiddetli bir şekilde değiştiği de
gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye elektrik piyasası, rüzgar penetrasyonu, merit sınıflandırma etkisi, CWT Granger nedensellik

Testing Merit-Order Effect in Turkey’s Electricity Market: The Effect of Wind Penetration on Day-Ahead Electricity Prices

Öz

Due to recent support mechanisms, the share of renewable
energy sources, particularly wind, in Turkey’s electricity generation has
increased significantly. Increasing renewable penetration is supposed to
decrease the electricity prices, which is known as the merit-order effect. Main
purpose of this article is to test the existence of merit-order effect in
Turkish electricity market. To this end, a nonparametric Granger causality test
based on wavelet transformation is applied on a daily data set covering Turkish
day-ahead power market clearing prices and electricity generation from wind
over the period between 2011 and 2018. The overall results confirm the
existence of the merit-order effect of wind in Turkey's electricity market. It
is also observed that the strength of the negative causality alters drastically
over different sub-periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turkish electricity market, wind penetration, merit-order effect, CWT Granger causality

Kaynakça

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