Determination of Demand Regimes in Turkey and Brazil: Wage-led or Profit-led: A Post-Kaleckian Analysis

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2, 236 - 250, 29.11.2023

Hatice Üstündağ Tunca , Sayım Işık

https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.1318336

Öz

The aim of this study is to determine the demand regime of Turkey and Brazil based on the Hein and Tarassow (2010) model, the effect of income distribution inequality on capital accumulation and capacity utilization. The data of the study covers the years 1988-2019. This study estimates the savings rate, capital accumulation rate, net export rate and real exchange rate equations for both countries separately. The first of the estimation results of the study for the Turkish and Brazilian economies suggests that the effect of profit share on capacity utilization is negative in both countries. Accordingly, the economies of both countries support the Kaldor-Verdoorn Law. The other result is that the effect of profits on capital accumulation (marginal elasticity) is negative for Turkey and positive for Brazil. It is possible to explain the positive effect of wages on capital accumulation for Turkey with the Marx-Hicks effect. In conclusion, these empirical findings show that Turkey's demand regime is wage-led, while Brazil's demand regime is intermediate demand-led.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Income Distribution, Demand Regime, Capacity Utilization Rate, Profit Share, Capital Accumulation Rate

Teşekkür

Makalenin değerlendirme sürecinde, hakemlerin yapmış olduğu yapıcı katkılara teşekkür ederiz. Makaledeki tüm hata ve noksanlar bize aittir.

Türkiye ve Brezilya'da Talep Rejimlerinin Belirlenmesi: Ücret Çekişli mi Yoksa Kâr Çekişli mi: Post-Kaleckiyen Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, gelir dağılımı eşitsizliğinin sermaye birikimi ve kapasite kullanımı üzerine etkisini Hein ve Tarassow (2010) modelini temel alarak Türkiye ve Brezilya’nın talep rejimini belirlemektedir. Çalışmanın verileri 1988-2019 yılları arasını kapsamaktadır. Bu çalışma her iki ülke için tasarruf oranı, sermaye birikim oranı, net ihracat oranı ve reel döviz kuru denklemlerini ayrı ayrı tahmin etmektedir. Çalışmanın Türkiye ve Brezilya ekonomisi için tahmin sonuçlarından ilki, her iki ülkede de kâr payının kapasite kullanımı üzerindeki etkisinin negatif olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Buna göre her iki ülke ekonomisi de Kaldor- Verdoorn Yasası’nı desteklemektedir. Çalışmanın ikinci bulgusu, karların sermaye birikimi üzerindeki etkisinin (marjinal esneklik) Türkiye için negatif ve Brezilya için pozitif olduğunu göstermektedir. Türkiye için ücretlerin sermaye birikimi üzerindeki olumlu etkisini Marx-Hicks etkisi ile açıklamak mümkündür. Sonuç olarak bu ampirik bulgular, Türkiye’nin talep rejiminin ücret çekişli olduğu, Brezilya’nın talep rejiminin ise ara talep rejimli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gelir Dağılımı, Talep Rejimi, Kapasite Kullanım Oranı, Kâr Payı, Sermaye Birikim Oranı

Kaynakça

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