REZERV PARALARIN GELECEĞİNE İLİŞKİN BİR AMPİRİK ÇALIŞMA

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 59 - 71, 25.06.2020

Ali Alp Saim Kılıç Hadi Gönülalçak

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, ABD Doları’nın lider rezerv para statüsünü gelecekte koruyup koruyamayacağını ve dolayısıyla da küresel ekonominin yeni bir lider rezerv para talep etme olasılığının bulunup bulunmadığını araştırmaktır. Çalışmada, önce rezerv varlık statüsünü tanımlayıcı değişkenler, ABD Doları ve Avro esas alınarak 1979-2015 dönemi için panel veri yöntemi ile modellenmiş; ardından da gelecek 15 yılda ABD Doları ve Avro ile potansiyel vadeden Yuan’ın rezerv para olarak zaman içerisindeki trendi olası senaryolar altında incelenmiştir. Araştırmanın sonuçlarına göre, ilk olarak, rezerv para olmanın en güçlü belirleyicilerinin ülke ekonomisinin küresel ekonomi içindeki payı, finansal piyasalarının gelişmişlik düzeyi ve paranın değerini koruması olduğu anlaşılmıştır. İkinci olarak, ABD’nin geçmiş yıllarda gözlemlenen finansal gelişimini devam ettirdiği takdirde ABD Doları’nın lider rezerv para statüsünü koruyabileceği öngörülmektedir. Aksi takdirde, ABD ekonomisinin küresel ekonomi içerisinde aldığı payın azalması ve ABD dolarındaki değer kaybının sürmesi ile birlikte, ABD Dolarının lider rezerv para statüsünü kaybedeceği beklenmektedir. Üçüncü olarak, Avro’nun tüm olası senaryolar altında rezerv varlıklar içerisindeki payında azalma trendi öngörüldüğünden, Avro’nun lider rezerv para birimi olarak talep edilemeyeceği beklenmektedir. Dördüncü olarak, Yuan’ın değer kaybetmemesi, Çin’in finans piyasalarını açması, Yuan’ı çevrilebilir (konvertibl) kılması ve Yuan cinsinden varlıkları piyasaya sürmesi durumunda, Yuan’ın yakın ve orta vadede olmasa bile uzun vadede rezerv para için güçlü bir aday olabilme kapasitesinin bulunduğu tahmin edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rezerv Para, Rezerv Biriktirme, Lider Rezerv Para, Uluslararası Para Sistemi

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE FUTURE OF RESERVE CURRENCIES

Öz

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the U.S. dollar will lose its hegemony as a global reserve currency in the future, and to therefore determine the likelihood of a worldwide demand for a new reserve currency. As the first stage of the study, the variables that define the reserve asset status have been modelled for the period of 1979-2015 using U.S. Dollar and Euro based-panel (data) analysis; and then the future appreciation trend of U.S. Dollar, Euro as well as Yuan as a potential global reserve currency for the next 15 years has been examined under different scenarios. The findings of the study have firstly shown that the most obvious determinants of being a reserve currency are country share of world GDP, the level of development of a 60 country’s financial markets, and a country’s efforts to preserve the value of its own currency. Secondly, based on the results of this study, it is predicted that the U.S. Dollar can maintain its reserve-currency status as long as the United States preserves its financial progress as it did over the past decades. Otherwise, it is expected that the U.S. Dollar may lose its reserve-currency status if U.S. role in global economy declines further and the U.S. Dollar continues to depreciate. Thirdly, it is anticipated that there will be no global demand for Euro replacing the U.S. Dollar as the new leading reserve currency since Euro is projected to lose further share in global FX reserves under all possible scenarios. And fourthly, Yuan is seen as a currency with strong capacity for becoming the new candidate of reserve currency, not in the short or medium term maybe, but in the long run, if China keeps Yuan strong, continues to open its financial markets, makes Yuan fully convertible and issues Yuan-denominated assets.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Reserve Currency, Reserve Accumulation, Leading Reserve Currency, International Monetary System

Kaynakça

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