Terör Olayları ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım: Yunanistan Örneğinde Dayanıklı İlişkisel Modellerin Ortaya Çıkardığı Sonuçlar

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4, 1675 - 1704, 23.12.2024

Mahir Terzi , Serkan Yenal

https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1517832

Öz

Bu çalışma, terör saldırılarının Yunanistan'a yapılan doğrudan yabancı yatırımları etkileyip etkilemediğini mümkün olan en güncel verilerle incelemektedir. Bu çerçevede 1970-2020 yılları arasındaki veriler üzerinden hipotezler, ilişkisel modeller çerçevesinde test edilmektedir. Sonuçlar terör saldırıları ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı orta düzeyde bir korelasyon olduğunu göstermektedir. Gayri safi yurt içi hasıla parametresi olarak terör saldırıları ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olan biraz daha yüksek bir korelasyon vardır. Ayrıca, dayanıklı regresyon analizinin gösterdiği gibi değişkenler arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Ancak tam verilerle kısa vadede terör saldırılarından doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara doğru, doğrudan yabancı yatırımları artırmak suretiyle bir nedensellik eğilimi olduğu görülmektedir. Aynı zamanda doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardan terör saldırılarına doğru nedensellik söz konusudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım, Yunanistan, İlişkisel Modeller, Dayanıklı Regresyon

Terrorist Events and Foreign Direct Investment: Outcomes Unveiled by Robust Statistical Models in the Example of Greece

Öz

This study examines whether the terrorist attacks impact foreign direct investments to Greece, with as much up-to-date data as possible. In this framework, hypotheses are tested within the framework of relational models through the data between 1970 and 2020. The results show a medium correlation between terrorist attacks and foreign direct investment, which is statistically significant. There is also a slightly higher correlation between terrorist attacks and foreign direct investment as a parameter of gross domestic product, which is statistically significant. Moreover, as the robust regression analysis shows, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between the variables. However, with complete data, there appears to be a causality tendency between variables by increasing foreign direct investment in the short term. At the same time, the results reveal causality from foreign direct investment to terrorist attacks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Direct Investment, Greece, Relational Models, Robust Regression

Kaynakça

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