Validity of Stochastic Environmental Convergence in G7 and BRICS-T Countries: Sharp and Soft Breaks with Panel KPSS

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 1, 201 - 222, 27.03.2025

Mustafa Gökmenoğlu

https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1561715

Öz

This study investigates whether convergence or divergence in environmental terms is valid for carbon emissions in G7 and BRICS-T countries. The study utilizes carbon emission data from 1960 to 2022 and applies stochastic environmental convergence methodology. The data were normalized to overcome limitations in the analytical method, and cross-sectional dependency tests were conducted to analyze inter-country dependencies. Fourier functions were employed to identify structural breaks, revealing disruptions in the data structures of the countries. The findings indicate that Germany’s carbon emissions diverge from the average within the G7 group. On the other hand, the carbon emission series of the United States, France, and the United Kingdom were found to converge towards the long-term average. Among the BRICS-T countries, the carbon emissions of Brazil, Turkey, China, and South Africa were observed to diverge, while Russia and India showed tendencies of convergence. In the cross-group Bartlett test statistics, an analysis of carbon emission convergence between G7 and BRICS-T countries revealed that emission averages between the two groups did not fully converge. Panel KPSS tests indicate that G7 countries have shown convergence over time, while BRICS-T countries have experienced divergence in emissions. Convergence was observed in both homogeneous and heterogeneous series within the G7 countries, whereas no stationarity was found in the heterogeneous series of BRICS-T countries. This suggests that while G7 countries are moving towards a common equilibrium in carbon emissions, this equilibrium has not yet been achieved among BRICS-T countries.
Keywords: Environmental Convergence Hypothesis, G7, BRICS-T.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Environmental Convergence Hypothesis, G7, BRICS-T.

Proje Numarası

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G7 ve BRICS-T Ülkelerinde Stokastik Çevresel Yakınsamasının Geçerliliği: Panel KPSS ile Keskin ve Yumuşak Kırılmalar

Öz

Bu çalışma, G7 ve BRICS-T ülkelerinin karbon emisyonları açısından çevresel yakınsamanın mı yoksa ıraksamanın mı geçerli olup olmadığını araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada, 1960-2022 yıllarına ait karbon emisyon verileri kullanılmış ve stokastik çevresel yakınsama metodolojisi kullanılmıştır. Veriler analiz yöntemindeki kısıtlılıkları aşmak için normalize edilmiş ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı testleriyle ülkeler arası bağımlılık analiz edilmiştir. Yapısal kırılmaların tespit edilmesi amacıyla Fourier fonksiyonları kullanılmış ve bu yöntemle ülkelerin veri yapısındaki kırılmalar da ortaya konulmuştur. Çalışmada, G7 ülkelerinden Almanya'nın karbon emisyonlarının ortalamaya ıraksadığı tespit edilmiştir. Öte yandan diğer G7 ülkelerinden olan ABD, Fransa ve Birleşik Krallık için ise karbon emisyonu serilerinin uzun vadede ortalamaya yakınsadığı belirlenmiştir. BRICS-T ülkeleri arasında Brezilya, Türkiye, Çin ve Güney Afrika’nın karbon emisyonlarının ıraksadığı görülürken, Rusya ve Hindistan’ın karbon emisyonlarının yakınsama eğilimi gösterdiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Gruplar arası Barlett test istatistiklerinde G7 ve BRICS-T ülkeleri arasındaki karbon emisyon yakınsaması incelendiğinde, her iki grup arasında emisyon ortalamalarının birbirine tam anlamıyla yakınsama göstermediği tespit edilmiştir. Panel KPSS testleri, G7 ülkelerinin zamanla birbirine yakınsadığını, BRICS-T ülkelerinin ise emisyonlarında ıraksama yaşadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Hem homojen hem de heterojen serilerde G7 ülkelerinde yakınsama gözlenirken, BRICS-T ülkelerinde heterojen serilerde durağanlık gözlenmemiştir. Bu durum, G7 ülkelerinde karbon emisyonlarının ortak bir dengeye yöneldiğini, BRICS-T ülkelerinde ise bu dengenin henüz sağlanamadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çevresel Yakınsama Hipotezi, G7, BRICS-T

Etik Beyan

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Destekleyen Kurum

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Proje Numarası

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Teşekkür

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Kaynakça

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