Elit Grupların Çin Dış Politikası Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Bu makale, Çin dış politikasının yalnızca tek bir aktörün veya uluslararası sistem baskılarının sonucu olmadığını; farklı elit grupların çıkar, algı ve kurumsal önceliklerinin etkileşimiyle şekillendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, parti içi elitler, güvenlik elitleri, ekonomi elitleri ve akademik elitler üzerine odaklanmakta; araştırma sorusu ise bu elit grupların kim olduğu ve dış politikayı nasıl etkilediği sorusuna cevap aramaktadır. Kuramsal çerçeve olarak neoklasik realizm ve elit teorisi birlikte kullanılmıştır. Yöntemsel olarak resmi devlet belgeleri, beyaz kitaplar ve People’s Daily içerikleri üzerinde nitel ve nicel içerik analizi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, Çin dış politikasının çok aktörlü ancak merkezileşmiş bir elit yapı tarafından üretildiğini göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak çalışma, Çin dış politikasının bir “elit filtre” çerçevesinde analiz edilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymakta ve literatüre bu konu özelinde bütüncül bir yaklaşım sunmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çin
• Dış politika
• Elit gruplar
• Politika yapıcı

The Influence of Elite Groups on Chinese Foreign Policy

Öz

This article argues that Chinese foreign policy is not solely the result of a single actor or international system pressures, but rather shaped by the interaction of interests, perceptions, and institutional priorities of different elite groups. The study focuses on intra-party elites, security elites, economic elites, and academic elites, seeking to answer the question of who these elite groups are and how they influence foreign policy. Neoclassical realism and elite theory are used together as the theoretical framework. Qualitative and quantitative content analysis is employed on official state documents, white papers, and People’s Daily content. The findings demonstrate that Chinese foreign policy is produced by a multi-actor but centralized elite structure. In conclusion, the study argues that Chinese foreign policy should be analyzed within an “elite filter” framework, offering a holistic approach to this topic in the literature.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• China
• Foreign policy
• Elite groups
• Policymaker

Kaynakça

1. AP News. (2025, September 11). China approves nature reserve at disputed South China Sea shoal claimed by the Philippines. https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-scarborough-shoal-nature-reserve-6131d2bd2bc54c53546481609c7ac67c
2. Bachulska, A., & Karásková, I. (2025, September 16). Great changes unseen: The China-Russia nexus and European security. European Council on Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/publication/great-changes-unseen-the-china-russia-nexus-and-european-security/
3. Balbontin, R. (2025, October 27). Backfire: Export controls helped Huawei and hurt U.S. firms. ITIF. https://itif.org/publications/2025/10/27/backfire-export-controls-helped-huawei-and-hurt-us-firms/
4. Barnett, A. D. (2019). The making of foreign policy in China: Structure and process. Routledge.
5. Baxter, T. (2024, October 3). Roundtable: What the China-Africa Forum means for clean energy in Africa. China Global South Project. https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/roundtable-what-the-china-africa-forum-means-for-clean-energy-in-africa/
6. Best, H., & Higley, J. (2018). The Palgrave handbook of political elites. Palgrave Macmillan.
7. Bishop, B. (2018, January 5). Xi convenes first ever meeting of entire Chinese military. Axios. https://www.axios.com/2018/01/06/xi-convenes-first-ever-meeting-of-entire-chinese-military-1515262303
8. Bo, Y., & Xinyue, Z. (2025, August 22).《国际形势和中国外交蓝皮书（2024/2025）》发布 [The "Blue book on international situation and China's diplomacy (2024/2025)" was released]. People’s Daily Online. https://world.people.com.cn/n1/2025/0822/c1002-40547581.html

9. Breslin, S. (2010). Handbook of China’s international relations. Routledge.
10. Cabestan, J. P. (2020). China’s foreign and security policy institutions and decision-making under Xi Jinping. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 23(2), 319–336.
11. Casarini, N. (2015). The role of think tanks in China. In K. Brown (Ed.), The EU–China relationship: European perspectives: A manual for policy makers (pp. 88–97). World Scientific Publishing.
12. Chailan, C., Mazé, D., & Ramirez, R. H. (2024). The role of Chinese state-owned enterprises in Belt and Road Initiative-related projects: Three cases from Africa. International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets, 1(1), 1–22.
13. China Institute of International Studies. (2025). About CIIS. https://www.ciis.org.cn/english/AboutUs/profile/
14. China Development Bank. (2024). China Development Bank 2024 annual reports. https://www.cdb.com.cn/English/gykh_512/ndbg_jx/2024_jx/
15. China Institute of International Studies. (2024, November 13).国研院专题研究报告《真正的多边主义： 理念发展、核心要义和中国实践》发布活动成功举办[The launch event for the research report "True Multilateralism: Conceptual Development, Core Essence, and Chinese Practice" by the National Academy of Development and Research was successfully held]. https://www.ciis.org.cn/xwdt/202411/t20241113_9407.html
16. China's State Council Information Office. (2023, October 10). The belt and road initiative: A key pillar of the global community of shared future. https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/202310/10/content_WS6524b55fc6d0868f4e8e014c.html
17. Downs, E. (2011a, April 13). Hearing on China’s foreign policy: Challenges and players panel on “New interest groups in Chinese foreign policy.” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/4.13.11Downs.pdf
18. Downs, E. (2011b, March 21). Inside China, Inc: China Development Bank’s cross-border energy deals. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/inside-china-inc-china-development-banks-cross-border-energy-deals/
19. Eder, T. S. (2018, August 1). China’s new foreign policy setup. Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics). https://merics.org/en/comment/chinas-new-foreign-policy-setup
20. Gan, N., & Magramo, K. (2025, September 11). Why is China setting up a nature reserve in one of the world’s most contested waterways? CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/11/asia/china-nature-reserve-south-china-sea-intl-hnk
21. Gang, F., & Hope, N. C. (2013). The role of state-owned enterprises in the Chinese economy. China US Focus. https://www.chinausfocus.com/2022/wp-content/uploads/Part+02-Chapter+16.pdf
22. Greitens, S. C. (2025, February 26). Counter-espionage and state security: The changing role of China’s Ministry of State Security. China Leadership Monitor. https://www.prcleader.org/post/counter-espionage-and-state-security-the-changing-role-of-china-s-ministry-of-state-security
23. Grieger, G. (2015). The role of the army in China’s politics. European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2015/564375/EPRS_BRI(2015)564375_EN.pdf
24. Grimsditch, M. (2015). The role and characteristics of Chinese state-owned and private enterprises in overseas investments. Friends of the Earth. https://foe.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Role-and-Characteristics-of-SOEs-Overseas-1.pdf
25. Grünberg, N., & Stec, G. (2024, May 8). Whispering advice, roaring praises: The role of Chinese think tanks under Xi Jinping. Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). https://merics.org/en/report/whispering-advice-roaring-praises-role-chinese-think-tanks-under-xi-jinping
26. Gu, T. (2023). Chinese state-owned enterprises’ foreign investments in developed countries: A mission of glory for national security. SSRN, 1–31. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4563832
27. Higley, J. (2010). Elite theory and elites. In K. T. Leicht & J. C. Jenkins (Eds.), Handbooks of sociology and social research (pp. 161–177). Springer.
28. Hu, W. (2016). Xi Jinping ‘big power diplomacy’ and China’s Central National Security Commission (CNSC). Journal of Contemporary China, 25(98), 163–177.
29. Huang, K. G., Jing, R., Xia, J., Zhang, C. M., Zhong, W., & Zhu, D. H. (2025). Coevolution of SOEs and the Chinese economy: The roles of SOE heterogeneity from the institutional, strategic, and organizational perspectives. Management and Organization Review, 20(5), 704–715.
30. Hui, Y. (2017, May 9). CASS: Premier academic window to world. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). http://casseng.cssn.cn/focus/201705/t20170510_3513661.html
31. Jakobson, L., & Manuel, R. (2016). How are foreign policy decisions made in China? Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 3(1), 101–110.
32. Jargad, S. (2025, March 4). How is China’s foreign policy structured? The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/how-is-chinas-foreign-policy-structured-explained/article69287160.ece
33. Jie, Y., & Ridout, L. (2021, November 1). Who decides China’s foreign policy? Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/11/who-decides-chinas-foreign-policy
34. Lawrence, S. (2025, March 10). China primer: China’s political system. Congress.Gov. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12505
35. Legarda, H. (2018, August 1). In Xi’s China, the center takes control of foreign affairs. Mercator Institute for China Studies. https://merics.org/en/comment/xis-china-center-takes-control-foreign-affairs
36. Li, H. (2002). The role of think tanks in Chinese foreign policy. Problems of Post-Communism, 49(2), 33–43.
37. Li, H., & Hackenesch, C. (2024, September 16). FOCAC 2024: Moving away from large infrastructure deals towards normative power of China. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik. https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/megatrends-spotlight-38-focac-2024-towards-normative-power-of-china
38. Lili, Z. (2015, September 22). 新时期中国外交决策领域的新变化 [New changes in China's foreign policy decision-making in the new era]. CPC News. http://theory.people.com.cn/n/2015/0922/c40531-27618304.html
39. Lobell, S. E., Ripsman, N. M., & Taliaferro, J. W. (2009). Neoclassical realism, the state and foreign policy. Cambridge University Press.
40. Mastro, O. S. (2020). The PLA’s evolving role in China’s South China Sea strategy. China Leadership Monitor, 66, 1–19.
41. National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. (2023, December 29). 中央外事工作会议在北京举行 习近平发表重要讲话 [The central conference on foreign affairs was held in Beijing, where Xi Jinping delivered an important speech.].https://www.nhc.gov.cn/wjw/mtbd/202312/8d9c59e02c0d49178cc8e707fd9e5dd5.shtml
42. Rendon, M., & Baumunk, S. (2018, April 3). When investment hurts: Chinese influence in Venezuela. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). https://www.csis.org/analysis/when-investment-hurts-chinese-influence-venezuela
43. Rose, G. (1998). Neoclassical realism and theories of foreign policy. World Politics, 51(1), 144–172.
44. Rozman, G. (2012). China’s foreign policy: Who makes it, and how is it made? Palgrave Macmillan.
45. Saunders, E. N. (2022). Elites in the making and breaking of foreign policy. Annual Review of Political Science, 25, 219–240.
46. Saunders, P. C., & Ha, M. (2025). China’s military diplomacy. National Defense University. https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/china-strategic-perspectives/19/
47. Shambaugh, D. (2002). China’s international relations think tanks: Evolving structure and process. The China Quarterly, 171, 575–596.
48. Shih, V. C. (2022). Coalitions of the weak: Elite politics in China from Mao’s stratagem to the rise of Xi. Cambridge University Press.
49. Shullman, D. O., Culver, J., Liao, K., & Wong, S. (2024, September 23). Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/adapting-us-strategy-to-account-for-chinas-transformation-into-a-peer-nuclear-power/
50. State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. (2019, July 24). China’s national defense in the new era. https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html
51. Sutherland, M. D., & Sutter, K. M. (2024, May 16). China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative: Economic issues. Congressional Research Service. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF11735
52. U.S. Department of Defense. (2025). Annual report to Congress: Military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China. https://media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/2003849070/-1/-1/1/ANNUAL-REPORT-TO-CONGRESS-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2025.PDF
53. Xin, H. (2023). The influence of Chinese foreign policy think tanks on China’s EU policy: A comparative analysis of CIIS and SIIS. Asia Europe Journal, 21, 173–208.
54. Xinhuanet. (2019, July 24). 新时代的中国国防 [China's national defense in the new era]. http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2019-07/24/c_1124791816.htm
55. Xuanli, L. (2015). Seeking influence: Chinese foreign-policy think tanks. Global Asia, 10(1), 84–100.
56. Xufeng, Z. (2009). The influence of think tanks in the Chinese policy process: Different ways and mechanisms. Asian Survey, 49(2), 333–357.
57. Yang, Y. (2016). The internet and China’s foreign policy decision-making. Chinese Political Science Review, 1, 353–372.
58. Yunling, Z. (2013). The role of think tanks in China – The case of CASS. Japan Spotlight, 24–26.
59. Zhiyue, B. (2007). China’s elite politics: Political transition and power balancing. World Scientific Publishing.
60. 你所疑惑的“中央外办主任、外交部部长”两个职务，有什么区别? [What is the difference between the two positions you are wondering about: "Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office" and "Minister of Foreign Affairs"?]. (2023). NetEase. https://www.163.com/dy/article/HQ3D9RUS05560XL9.html