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China's Perspective on North Korean Nuclear Policies in The Context of Deterrence Theory

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 34, 260 - 282, 20.03.2023
https://doi.org/10.33692/avrasyad.1200578

Öz

Over the past 30 years, North Korea’s nuclear problem has posed one of the most significant and direct threats to the security, development, and stability in Northeast Asia. The efforts of the international community, including trilateral and six-party talks, sanctions, diplomatic efforts, and the more recent Singapore and Hanoi Summits, have so far failed to produce any tangible outcomes. The main objective of North Korea is to develop its nuclear program and openly produce nuclear weapons. The international community has placed undue reliance on China's ability to put pressure on North Korea and easily resolve the nuclear issue. To this end, while trying to get North Korea to forgo the development of its nuclear program, China also helped North Korea become a nuclear power. This article seeks to examine whether China’s deterrence strategy is reliable for North Korea. Under the Chinese deterrence strategy, China adheres to the principle of not launching the first and second strikes. While its rivals have provided it to its allies, China has not offered any nuclear guarantees to North Korea. In the context of the US-China rivalry, China is concerned about its interests in Taiwan, South Korea, and the South China Sea. For China, the North Korea nuclear crisis has never been a top priority. The lack of credibility in the alliance relationship between the two countries has made it impossible for China to convince North Korea to complete its denuclearization. Therefore, China's deterrent power has been inconclusive. This lack of credibility more clearly explains North Korea's motivation to develop its nuclear program.

Kaynakça

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Caydırıcılık Teorisi Bağlamında Çin’in Kuzey Kore Nükleer Politikalarına Bakışı

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 34, 260 - 282, 20.03.2023
https://doi.org/10.33692/avrasyad.1200578

Öz

Son 30 yılda, Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer sorunu, Kuzeydoğu Asya'daki güvenlik, kalkınma ve istikrara yönelik en önemli ve doğrudan tehditlerden birini oluşturmuştur. Üçlü ve altılı görüşmeler, yaptırımlar, diplomatik çabalar ve daha yakın tarihli Singapur ve Hanoi Zirveleri dahil olmak üzere uluslararası toplumun çabaları, şimdiye kadar herhangi somut bir sonuç üretememiştir. Kuzey Kore'nin temel amacı nükleer programını geliştirmek ve açıkça nükleer silah üretmek olmuştur. Uluslararası toplum, Çin'in Kuzey Kore'ye baskı yapma ve nükleer sorunu kolayca çözme yeteneğine aşırı derecede güvenmiştir. Çin, Kuzey Kore'yi nükleer programının geliştirilmesinden vazgeçirmeye çalışırken, Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer bir güç olmasına da yardımcı olmuştur. Bu makale, Çin'in caydırıcılık stratejisinin bir müttefik olarak Kuzey Kore üzerinde güvenilir olup olmadığını incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çin caydırıcılık stratejisi kapsamında birinci ve ikinci vuruşları gerçekleştirmeme ilkesine bağlı kalmaktadır. Rakipleri bu garantiyi müttefiklerine sağlarken, Çin Kuzey Kore'ye herhangi bir nükleer garanti sunmamıştır. ABD-Çin rekabeti bağlamında Çin, Tayvan, Güney Kore ve Güney Çin Denizi'ndeki çıkarlarından endişe duymaktadır. Çin için Kuzey Kore nükleer krizi hiçbir zaman birinci öncelik olmamıştır. İki ülke arasındaki ittifak ilişkisindeki güven eksikliği, Çin'in Kuzey Kore'yi nükleer silahlardan arındırma sürecini tamamlamaya ikna etmesini imkânsız hale getirmiştir. Bu nedenle, Çin'in caydırıcı gücü sonuçsuz kalmıştır. Bu güven eksikliği, Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer programını geliştirme motivasyonunu daha net olarak açıklamaktadır.

Kaynakça

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  • Byman, D. ve Lind, J. 2010. Pyongyang’s Survival Strategy: Tools of Authoritarian Control in North Korea. International Security. 35(1): 44-74.
  • Cha, V. 2002. ‘North Korea’s Weapons of Mass Destruction: Badges, Shields, or Swords?’. Political Science Quarterly. 117(2):209–30.
  • Chan, A. 2022. Xi Jinping: Political Career, Governance, and Leadership, 1953-2018. Oxford University Press.
  • Chansoria, M. 2009. US China and North Korea Nuclear Triangle. Chinese WMD Proliferation in Asia: US Response. New Delhi: Knowledge World Publishers.101-150.
  • Chen, J. 2018. “Zhōngguó shì qiānnián sùdí! Chuán cháoxiǎn shāndòng fǎn zhōng qíngxù” (“Çin bin yıllık düşman! Kuzey Kore'nin Çin karşıtı duyguları körüklediği söyleniyor”) https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/18/1/6/n10030925.htm(Erişim Tarihi: 01.06.2022)
  • Chung, J.H. ve Choi, M. 2013. ‘Uncertain Allies or Uncomfortable Neighbors? Making Sense of China-North Korea Relations, 1949-2010’. The Pacific Review. 26(3): 243-264
  • Cimbala, S. 2012. “On nuclear war: Deterrence, escalation, and control”. Military and Strategic Affairs.4(3):25-44.
  • Cohen, A. 2019. North Korea Illegally Trades Oil, Coal, With China's Help. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/03/21/north-korea-illegally-trades-oil-coal-with-chinas-help/?sh=21dddd07301a (Erişim tarihi:21.11.2021)
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  • Fravel, M.T ve Medeiros, E. 2010. “China’s Search for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure”. International Security. 35(2):48-87.
  • Griffiths, J. 2017. North Korea Blights China’s One Belt, One Road Party with Missile Launch. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/14/asia/china-north-korea-missile-obor/index.html (Erişim tarihi: 24.11.2021).
  • Guo, R. 2012. Territorial Disputes and Conflict Management: The Art of Avoiding War. Routledge.
  • Han, Z. ve Zhao, Q. 2020. “Zhōng měi zài cháo hé wèntí shàng de fēnqí yǔ hézuò” (“Kuzey Kore nükleer meselesinde Çin ve ABD arasındaki farklılıklar ve iş birliği”). Guójì zhèngzhì kēxué (Uluslararası Siyaset Bilimi). 5(1):33-60.
  • Hastings J. ve Wang, Y. 2018. “Informal Trade along the China-North Korea Border”. Journal of East Asian Studies. 18(2):181-203.
  • Huth, P. K. 1999. Deterrence and International Conflict: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debates. Annual Review of Political Science. 2(1):25-48.
  • Kim, S. 2006. The Two Koreas and the Great Powers. New York: Cambridge University Press.
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  • Lawrence, S. ve Manyin, M. ve Hammond K. 2017. Why Did March 2016 U.N. Sanctions Not Curb China's Imports of Coal from North Korea?. Congressional Research Service.
  • Li, Y. 2003.Zhōng měi liǎng guó de cháoxiǎn bàndǎo zhèngcè yǎnjìn lìchéng yánjiū (Çin ve ABD arasındaki Kore yarımadası politikasının evrimi üzerine bir araştırma). Xiānggǎng: Shèhuì kēxué chūbǎn shè (Hong Kong: Sosyal Bilimler Basını).
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  • Lin, T. 2004.Toward a Nuclear Peace in East Asia: Facing North Korea’s Nuclear Reality. The Journal of East Asian Affairs. 18 (1): 49-77.
  • Ling, S. 2017. “Měiguó duì cháoxiǎn bàndǎo de xiē zǐ Zhànlüè” (“ABD'nin Kore Yarımadası'ndaki Kama Stratejisi”). Dongbei Ya Luntan. 5:46-57.
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  • Niksch, L. 2006. North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program, Crs Issue Brief For Congress. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/iB91141.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 25.09.2022)
  • Neves, M. S. 2020.China Policy towards North Korea and the Nuclear Question. The Journal of East Asian Affairs. 33(1):5-26.
  • Noland, M. 2004. Famine and Reform in North Korea. Asian Economic Papers.3(2):1-40.
  • Oberdorfer, D. ve Carlin R. 2013. The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History. Basic Books.
  • Paret, P. 1986.Makers of Modern Strategy from Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age. Princeton University Press.
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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Özlem Zerrin KEYVAN
Hacettepe Üniversitesi
0000-0003-2072-3655
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 15 Mart 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 20 Mart 2023
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 34

Kaynak Göster

APA Keyvan, Ö. Z. (2023). Caydırıcılık Teorisi Bağlamında Çin’in Kuzey Kore Nükleer Politikalarına Bakışı . Avrasya Uluslararası Araştırmalar Dergisi , 11 (34) , 260-282 . DOI: 10.33692/avrasyad.1200578

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