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COVID-19 KRİZİNİN ULUSLARARASI PORTFÖY YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 429 - 446, 31.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1109392

Öz

Uluslararası portföy yatırımlarının yapısı yatırımcıların riskten kaçınma güdülerine bağlıdır. COVID-19 küresel krizi küresel riskin dünya ekonomisinde daha önce görülmemiş seviyelerde yükselmesine ve yatırımcıların riskten kaçınma güdülerinin artmasına neden olmuştur. Yatırımcının riskten kaçınma güdüsü yatırım yapacağı finansal piyasa hakkındaki bilgisinden bağımsız değildir. Bu nedenle bilgi maliyetlerinin finansal varlık getirilerinin riski üzerindeki etkisi dikkate alındığında, COVID-19 krizinde ülkeler arasındaki portföy yatırımları üzerindeki etkisinin farklılaşacağı beklenebilir. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, COVID-19 krizinin bilgi maliyetleri kanalı aracılığıyla karşılıklı portföy yatırımları üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Analiz coğrafi ve kültürel yakınlık gibi bilgi maliyetlerinin etkisini kontrol eden finansal çekim modeli ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Model 120 ülkenin karşılıklı portföy yatırımları için 2010-2020 yılları itibariyle EKK ve PPML tahmincileri ile sınanmıştır. Ampirik finansal çekim modeli sonuçları, coğrafi ve kültürel yakınlık ile temsil edilen bilgi maliyetlerinin etkilerinin uluslararası portföy yatırımları üzerindeki etkisinin COVID-19 krizi süresince de önemli olduğunu göstermektedir. Yatırımcılar COVID-19 krizi döneminde, bilgi maliyetleri düşük olsa bile kendilerine coğrafi ve kültürel olarak daha uzak olan ülkelerin finansal varlıklarını tercih etmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Ahrend, R. & Schwellnus, C. (2013). Do Investors Disproportionately Shed Assets of Distant Countries during Global Financial Crises?: The role of Increased Uncertainty. OECD Journal: Economic Studies. 2012(1), 1-22.
  • Al-Awadhi, A.M., Al-Saifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A. & Alhamadi, S. (2020). Death and Contagious Infectious Diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 Virus on Stock Market Returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27,100326.
  • Ashraf, B.N. (2021). Stock Markets’ Reaction to Covid-19: Moderating Role of National Culture. Finance Research Letters, 41, 101857. Beck, R., Georgiadis, G. & Gräb, J. (2016). The Geography of The Great Rebalancing in Euro Area Bond Markets during the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Journal of Empirical Finance, 38, 449-460.
  • Beirne, J., Renzhi, N., sugandi, E. & Volz, U. (2020). Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic. ADBI Working Paper Series. No: 1158. Berger, T., Grabet, S. & Kempa, B. (2016). Global and Country-Specific Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, No: 0305-9049.
  • Bing, T. & Ma, H. (2021). COVID-19 Pandemic Effect on Trading and Returns: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market. Economic Analysis and Policy, 71, 384-396. Bora, D. & Basistha, D. (2021). The Outbreak of COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from a Worst-Affected Economy. Journal of Public Affairs, 2623, 1-10.
  • Cerutti, E., Claessens, S. & Puy, D. (2019). Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals. Journal of International Economics. 119, 133-149.
  • Díaz, F., Henríquez, P. A. & Winkelried, D. (2022). Stock Market Volatility and the COVID-19 Reproductive Number. Research in International Business and Finance, 59, 101517. di Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Ozcan, S¸., Ulu, M. F., & Baskaya, Y. S. (2020). International spillovers and local credit cycles. Economics Working Paper from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabrao.
  • ElFayoumi, Khalid & Hengge, Martina, Capital Markets, COVID-19 and Policy Measures (February 1, 2021). IMF Working Paper No. 2021/033.
  • Engelhardt, N., Krause, M., Neukirchen, D. & Posch, P.N. (2021). Trust and Stock Market Volatility during the COVID-19 Crisis. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101873.
  • Foad, H. (2010). Familarity Bias. Behavioral Finance: Investors, Coorparations and Markets. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 277-294.
  • Forbes, K.J. & Warnock, F.E. (2012). Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment. Journal of International Economics, 88,235-251.
  • Galtsyan, V. & Lane, P. R. (2013). Bilateral Portfolio Dynamics during the Global Financial Crisis. European Economic Review, 57, 63-74.
  • Haroon, O. & Rizvi, S.A.R. (2020). Flatten the Curve and Stock Market Liquity- An Inquiry into Emerging Economies. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2151-2161.
  • Herwany, A., Febrian, E., Anwar, M. & Gunardi, A. (2021), The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(3).
  • Jordà, O. (2005). Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections. American Economic Review, 95 (1): 161–82.
  • Kaat, D.M.T. (2021). Cross-Border Debt Flows and Credit Allocation: Firm-Level Evidence from the Euro Area. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 53(7): 1797-1818.
  • Lee, C.C., Lee, C.C. & Wu, Y. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Hospitality Stock Returns in China. International Journal of Financial Economics. 1-14.
  • Liu, L., Wang, E.Z. & Lee, C.C. (2020). Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Crude Oil and Stock Markets in the US: A Time-Varying Analysis. Energy Research Letters, 1(1), 13154.
  • McKibbin, W.J. & Stoeckel, A. (2009). The global financial crisis: Causes and consequences, Lowy Institute for International Policy working paper.
  • Mishra, A.K., Rath, B.N. & Dash, A.K. (2020). Does the Indian Financial Market Nosedive Because of the COVID-19 Outbreak, in Comparison to After Demonetisation and the GST? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2162-2180.
  • Mishra, P.K. & Mishra, S.K. (2021). COVID-19 Pandemic and Stock Market Reaction: Empirical Insights from 15 Asian Countries. Transnational Corporations Review, 13(2), 139-155.
  • Padhan, R. & Prabheesh, K.P. (2021). The Economics of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Survey. Economic Analysis and Policy, 70, 220-237.
  • Portes, R. & Rey, H. (2005). The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows. Journal of International Economics, 65, 269-296.
  • Rakshit, B. & Neog, Y. (2021). Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Returns and Volatilities: Evidence from Selected Emerging Economies. Studies in Economics and Finance, 1086-7376.
  • Rey, H. (2013). Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium. Sadiq, M., Hsu, C.C., Zhang, Y. & Chien, F. (2021). COVID-19 Fear and Volatility Index Movements: Empirical Insights from ASEAN Stock Markets. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 10,1-18.
  • Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The Log of Gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4):641-658.
  • Okawa, Y. & van Wincoop, E. (2012). Gravity in International Finance. Journal of International Economics, 87(2), 205-215.
  • Uddin, M., Chowdhury, A., Anderson, K. & Chaudhuri, K. (2021). The Effect of COVID – 19 Pandemic on Global Stock Market Volatility: Can Economic Strength Help to Manage the Uncertainty? Journal of Business Research, 128, 31-44.
  • Vermeulen, R. (2011). International Diversification During the Financial Crisis: A Blessing for Equity Investors? DNB Working Paper. No:324.
  • Xu, L. (2021). Stock Return and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Canada and the US. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101872.
  • Zaremba, A., Kizysc, R., Aharond, D.Y. & Demir, E. (2020), Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe. Finance Research Letters, 35.

THE EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS ON INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 429 - 446, 31.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1109392

Öz

The structure of international portfolio investments depend on investors' risk aversion. The COVID-19 global crisis has caused the global risk to rise to unprecedented levels in the world economy and the risk aversion of investors to increase. The investor's risk aversion is not independent of his information of the financial market in which he will invest. Therefore, considering the impact of information costs on the risk of financial asset returns, it can be expected that the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on portfolio investments between countries will differ. In this context, the aim of the study is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on bilateral portfolio investments through the information costs channel. The analysis is carried out with a financial gravity model that controls the effect of information costs such as geographical and cultural proximity. The model has been tested with EKK and PPML estimators for the bilateral portfolio investments of 120 countries as of 2010-2020. The empirical financial gravity model results show that the effects of information costs represented by geographical and cultural proximity on international portfolio investments are also significant during the COVID-19 crisis. During the COVID-19 crisis period, investors preferred financial assets of countries that are geographically and culturally more distant from them, even though their information costs are low.

Kaynakça

  • Ahrend, R. & Schwellnus, C. (2013). Do Investors Disproportionately Shed Assets of Distant Countries during Global Financial Crises?: The role of Increased Uncertainty. OECD Journal: Economic Studies. 2012(1), 1-22.
  • Al-Awadhi, A.M., Al-Saifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A. & Alhamadi, S. (2020). Death and Contagious Infectious Diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 Virus on Stock Market Returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27,100326.
  • Ashraf, B.N. (2021). Stock Markets’ Reaction to Covid-19: Moderating Role of National Culture. Finance Research Letters, 41, 101857. Beck, R., Georgiadis, G. & Gräb, J. (2016). The Geography of The Great Rebalancing in Euro Area Bond Markets during the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Journal of Empirical Finance, 38, 449-460.
  • Beirne, J., Renzhi, N., sugandi, E. & Volz, U. (2020). Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic. ADBI Working Paper Series. No: 1158. Berger, T., Grabet, S. & Kempa, B. (2016). Global and Country-Specific Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, No: 0305-9049.
  • Bing, T. & Ma, H. (2021). COVID-19 Pandemic Effect on Trading and Returns: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market. Economic Analysis and Policy, 71, 384-396. Bora, D. & Basistha, D. (2021). The Outbreak of COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from a Worst-Affected Economy. Journal of Public Affairs, 2623, 1-10.
  • Cerutti, E., Claessens, S. & Puy, D. (2019). Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals. Journal of International Economics. 119, 133-149.
  • Díaz, F., Henríquez, P. A. & Winkelried, D. (2022). Stock Market Volatility and the COVID-19 Reproductive Number. Research in International Business and Finance, 59, 101517. di Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Ozcan, S¸., Ulu, M. F., & Baskaya, Y. S. (2020). International spillovers and local credit cycles. Economics Working Paper from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabrao.
  • ElFayoumi, Khalid & Hengge, Martina, Capital Markets, COVID-19 and Policy Measures (February 1, 2021). IMF Working Paper No. 2021/033.
  • Engelhardt, N., Krause, M., Neukirchen, D. & Posch, P.N. (2021). Trust and Stock Market Volatility during the COVID-19 Crisis. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101873.
  • Foad, H. (2010). Familarity Bias. Behavioral Finance: Investors, Coorparations and Markets. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 277-294.
  • Forbes, K.J. & Warnock, F.E. (2012). Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment. Journal of International Economics, 88,235-251.
  • Galtsyan, V. & Lane, P. R. (2013). Bilateral Portfolio Dynamics during the Global Financial Crisis. European Economic Review, 57, 63-74.
  • Haroon, O. & Rizvi, S.A.R. (2020). Flatten the Curve and Stock Market Liquity- An Inquiry into Emerging Economies. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2151-2161.
  • Herwany, A., Febrian, E., Anwar, M. & Gunardi, A. (2021), The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(3).
  • Jordà, O. (2005). Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections. American Economic Review, 95 (1): 161–82.
  • Kaat, D.M.T. (2021). Cross-Border Debt Flows and Credit Allocation: Firm-Level Evidence from the Euro Area. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 53(7): 1797-1818.
  • Lee, C.C., Lee, C.C. & Wu, Y. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Hospitality Stock Returns in China. International Journal of Financial Economics. 1-14.
  • Liu, L., Wang, E.Z. & Lee, C.C. (2020). Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Crude Oil and Stock Markets in the US: A Time-Varying Analysis. Energy Research Letters, 1(1), 13154.
  • McKibbin, W.J. & Stoeckel, A. (2009). The global financial crisis: Causes and consequences, Lowy Institute for International Policy working paper.
  • Mishra, A.K., Rath, B.N. & Dash, A.K. (2020). Does the Indian Financial Market Nosedive Because of the COVID-19 Outbreak, in Comparison to After Demonetisation and the GST? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2162-2180.
  • Mishra, P.K. & Mishra, S.K. (2021). COVID-19 Pandemic and Stock Market Reaction: Empirical Insights from 15 Asian Countries. Transnational Corporations Review, 13(2), 139-155.
  • Padhan, R. & Prabheesh, K.P. (2021). The Economics of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Survey. Economic Analysis and Policy, 70, 220-237.
  • Portes, R. & Rey, H. (2005). The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows. Journal of International Economics, 65, 269-296.
  • Rakshit, B. & Neog, Y. (2021). Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Returns and Volatilities: Evidence from Selected Emerging Economies. Studies in Economics and Finance, 1086-7376.
  • Rey, H. (2013). Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium. Sadiq, M., Hsu, C.C., Zhang, Y. & Chien, F. (2021). COVID-19 Fear and Volatility Index Movements: Empirical Insights from ASEAN Stock Markets. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 10,1-18.
  • Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The Log of Gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4):641-658.
  • Okawa, Y. & van Wincoop, E. (2012). Gravity in International Finance. Journal of International Economics, 87(2), 205-215.
  • Uddin, M., Chowdhury, A., Anderson, K. & Chaudhuri, K. (2021). The Effect of COVID – 19 Pandemic on Global Stock Market Volatility: Can Economic Strength Help to Manage the Uncertainty? Journal of Business Research, 128, 31-44.
  • Vermeulen, R. (2011). International Diversification During the Financial Crisis: A Blessing for Equity Investors? DNB Working Paper. No:324.
  • Xu, L. (2021). Stock Return and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Canada and the US. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101872.
  • Zaremba, A., Kizysc, R., Aharond, D.Y. & Demir, E. (2020), Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe. Finance Research Letters, 35.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Sinem Atıcı Ustalar 0000-0001-8475-2581

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 26 Nisan 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Atıcı Ustalar, S. (2022). COVID-19 KRİZİNİN ULUSLARARASI PORTFÖY YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ. Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 13(2), 429-446. https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1109392