TESTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS HYPOTHESIS FOR TÜRKİYE BY AGE, GENDER AND FREQUENCY DIFFERENCES: EVIDENCE FROM WAVELET-BASED UNIT ROOT TESTS

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 3, 1599 - 1623, 31.12.2024

Tuba Çat , Mustafa Kırca

https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1526649

Öz

The main objective of this study is to test the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis by age, gender and frequency differences (period) for Türkiye. For this purpose, monthly data cover a long period between 2005 and 2023.Wavelet transforms of unemployment rates, along with their original values, are used to investigate the hysteresis effect for short, medium, and long-run components. First, the linearity of the series and the significance of structural breaks are tested. The Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller (FADF) test is used for linear series with significant structural breaks. The Fourier Kapetanios-Shin-Snell (FKSS) test is used to test the hysteresis hypothesis for non-linear series with significant structural breaks. For series without significant structural breaks, ADF and KSS tests are used. The findings reveal that the hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis in Türkiye differs by age, gender, and frequency differences.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Unemployment, Hysteresis Hypothesis, Wavelet Transform, Unit Root Test

TÜRKİYE İÇİN İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ HİPOTEZİNİN YAŞ, CİNSİYET VE FREKANS FARKLILIKLARINA GÖRE SINANMASI: DALGACIK TABANLI BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİNDEN KANITLAR

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’de işsizlik histerisi hipotezininin yaş, cinsiyet ve frekans (dönem) farklılıklarına göre test edilmesidir. Bu amaçla, 2005-2023 yılları arasındaki uzun bir dönemi kapsayan aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. İşsizlik oranlarının dalgacık dönüşümlerinden elde edilen kısa, orta ve uzun dönem bileşenleri, orjinal değrleriyle birlikte histeri etkisinin araştırılmasında kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak, serilerin doğrusallığı ve yapısal kırılmaların anlamlılığı test edilmiştir. Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller (FADF) testi, anlamlı yapısal kırılmalara sahip doğrusal seriler için kullanılmaktadır. Fourier Kapetanios-Shin-Snell (FKSS) testi, anlamlı yapısal kırılmalara sahip doğrusal olmayan seriler için histeresi hipotezini test etmek için kullanılmaktadır. Anlamlı yapısal kırılmaların olmadığı seriler için ADF ve KSS testleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye'de işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin yaş, cinsiyet ve frekans farklılıklarına göre farklılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşsizlik, Histerezis Hipotezi, Dalgacık Dönüşümü, Birim Kök Testi

Etik Beyan

Etik kurul kararına gerek olmayan bir çalışmadır.

Kaynakça

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