TÜRKİYE’DE EKONOMİK İSTİKRARIN ÇEVRE KALİTESİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ VE TODA-YAMAMOTO NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 74 - 101, 30.06.2025

Fatih Akın , Şaban Öncebe

https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1535973

Öz

Çevre kirliliği sadece bir ülkeyi değil diğer ülkeleri de etkilediği için küresel çapta bir sorundur. Bu nedenle çevre kalitesinin sağlanması tüm ülkelerin gündeminde olan bir konudur. Dolayısıyla çevre kalitesini bozan sebepler de tartışma konusu olmuştur. Türkiye’de çevre kalitesinin göstergelerinden biri olan CO2 emisyonu sürekli artan bir yapıya sahiptir. Çevre kalitesinin bozulmasında önemli bir rol oynayan CO2 emisyonunu azaltmak için Türkiye 2021 yılında Paris Anlaşması’nda bazı taahhütlerde bulunmuş ve gerekli alt yapı çalışmaları için de somut adımlar atmıştır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1990-2022 döneminde ekonomik istikrar ve enerji tüketiminin çevre kalitesi üzerindeki uzun dönem etkisi Otoregresif Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Model (ARDL) ve Granger nedensellik analizi için ise Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Çevre kalitesini temsilen CO2 emisyonu değişkeni kullanılmıştır. ARDL sınır testi sonuçlarına göre, CO2 emisyonunu uzun dönemde ekonomik istikrar ve enerji kullanımı artırmaktadır. Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre ekonomik istikrar ve enerji kullanımından CO2 emisyonuna doğru tek yönlü bir Granger nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar doğrultusunda, Türkiye’nin ekonomik istikrar ve çevre dengesini sağlayabilmesi için çevre kalitesini yükselten yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına daha da ağırlık vermesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

CO2 Emisyonu , Enerji Tüketimi , Ekonomik İstikrar , ICRG , ARDL

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC STABILITY ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY IN TÜRKİYE: ARDL BOUNDS TEST AND TODA-YAMAMOTO CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Öz

Environmental pollution is a global issue because it affects not only one country but also other countries. Therefore, ensuring environmental quality is an issue on the agenda of all countries. Therefore, the reasons that deteriorate environmental quality have also been the subject of discussion. In Türkiye, CO2 emission, which is one of the indicators of environmental quality, has a continuously increasing structure. In order to reduce CO2 emissions, which play an important role in the deterioration of environmental quality, Türkiye has made some commitments in the Paris Agreement in 2021 and has taken concrete steps for the necessary infrastructure works. In this study, the long-run impact of economic stability and energy consumption on environmental quality in Türkiye for the period 1990-2022 is investigated with Autoregressive Lag Distributed Model (ARDL) and Toda-Yamamoto Causality test for Granger causality analysis. CO2 emission variable is used to represent environmental quality. According to the ARDL bounds test results, CO2 emission increases with economic stability and energy use in the long run. According to the results of Toda-Yamamoto Causality test, a unidirectional Granger causality is found from economic stability and energy use to CO2 emission. In line with these results, in order for Türkiye to achieve economic stability and environmental balance, it should give more weight to renewable energy sources that improve environmental quality.

Anahtar Kelimeler

CO2 Emissions , Energy Consumption , Economic Stability , ICRG , ARDL

Kaynakça

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