The De-Europeanization of Foreign Policy: The Case of Turkey’s Relations With Greece

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 1, 1 - 35, 16.07.2025

Mehmet Bardakcı , Tülay Yıldırım Mat , Aslı Ege

https://doi.org/10.30903/baed.1721649

Öz

Drawing on the external incentives model (EIM), this paper maintains that unlike the favourable conditions for Europeanization between 1999 and 2005, the higher adoption costs, diminished credibility of the EU’s promise and threat, reduced size and speed of accession and problems concerning the determinacy of conditions created a setting that was conducive to the de-Europeanization of Turkish foreign policy after 2006. It then argues that in this de-Europeanized environment, the July 2016 coup attempt in Turkey acted as a catalyst in the shift of Turkish policy regarding Greece, leading to deterioration in the relations. Drawing on documentary analysis supplemented by semi-structured interviews with experts and taking the July 16 coup as a milestone, this paper contributes to the literature on the de-Europeanization of Turkish foreign policy and how that affected Turkey’s relations with Greece.

Anahtar Kelimeler

European Union - pre-accession countries , Turkey - Greece , conditionality , July 2016 coup

Dış Politikanın Avrupalılaşmaktan Uzaklaşması: Türkiye’nin Yunanistan’la İlişkileri Örneği

Öz

Drawing on the external incentives model (EIM), this paper maintains that unlike the favourable conditions for Europeanization between 1999 and 2005, the higher adoption costs, diminished credibility of the EU’s promise and threat, reduced size and speed of accession and problems concerning the determinacy of conditions created a setting that was conducive to the de-Europeanization of Turkish foreign policy after 2006. It then argues that in this de-Europeanized environment, the July 2016 coup attempt in Turkey acted as a catalyst in the shift of Turkish policy regarding Greece, leading to deterioration in the relations. Drawing on documentary analysis supplemented by semi-structured interviews with experts and taking the July 16 coup as a milestone, this paper contributes to the literature on the de-Europeanization of Turkish foreign policy and how that affected Turkey’s relations with Greece.

Anahtar Kelimeler

European Union - pre-accession countries , Turkey - Greece , conditionality , July 2016 coup

Kaynakça

• ALPAN, Başak, “Europeanization and EU-Turkey Relations: Three Domains, Four Periods”, EU-Turkey Relations: Theories, Institutions, and Policies, (ed.) Wulf Reiners and Ebru Turhan, Palgrave Macmillan, Cham 2021, pp. 107-138.
• ARAN, Amnon and KUTLAY, Mustafa, “Turkey’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy in an Era of Multipolarity,” IPC Policy Brief, February 2024.
• AVAN, Esengül Ayaz, “Europeanization of Turkey’s Foreign Policy: The Case of Turkey’s Mediation in the Israel-Palestine Conflict”, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Volume 21, Number 6, 2019, pp. 678-695.
• BAYKAN, Dildar, “No US Move on Turkish Call to Extradite FETO Terrorists”, Anadolu Ajansı, 13 July 2020.
• Europeanization and Domestic Change”, European Integration online Papers (EIoP), Volume 4, Number 15, 2000.
• BÖRZEL Tanja A and RISSE, Thomas, “Conceptualizing the Domestic Impact of Europe,” The Politics of Europeanization, (1. ed), (ed.), Kevin Featherstone and Claudio M. Radaelli, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2003, pp. 57-80.
• BULLER, Jim, and GAMBLE, Andrew, “Conceptualising Europeanisation”, Public Policy and Administration, Volume 17, Number 2, 2002, pp. 4-24.
• CEBECİ, Münevver, “The Implications of Brexit for the EU’s Security and Defence Actorness in the World”, Ankara Avrupa Çalışmaları Dergisi, Volume 20, Special Issue, 2021, pp. 291-324. COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES, “Negotiating Framework for Turkey”, Luxembourg 3 October 2005, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhoodenlargement/sites/near/files/pdf/turkey/st20002_05_tr_framedoc_en.pdf, (24.02.2024).
• “Cyprus: Reunification Proving Elusive”, Congressional Research Service (CRS), CRS Report Number: R41136, Washington 15 April 2019, https://www.congress.gov/crsproduct/R41136?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Cyprus%3A+Reunification+Proving+Elusive%5C%22%2C%22%7D&s=1&r=1, (10.01.2024).
• DEMIRTA޸ Birgül, “Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Balkans: A Europeanized Foreign Policy in a De-Europeanized National Context?”, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Volume 17, Number 2, 2015, pp. 123-140.
• DIMITRAIDI, Angeliki, KAYA, Ayhan, KALE, Başak and ZURABISHVILI, Tinatin, “EU-Turkey Relations and Irregular Migration: Transactional Cooperation in the Making”, Feuture, Online Paper No. 16, March 2018.
• EUROPEAN COMMISSION, “Public Opinion in the European Union”, Standard Eurobarometer 61, Brussels 2004,https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/archives/eb/eb61/eb61_en.pdf, (21.01.2024).
• EUROPEAN COMMISSION, “Public Opinion in the European Union”, Standard Eurobarometer 86, Brussels 2016, https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/ResultDoc/download/DocumentKy/79408, (21.01.2024).
• EUROPEAN COMMISSION, “Turkey Report SWD 220 Final”, Brussels 29 March 2019, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/sites/near/files/20190529-turkey-report.pdf, (02.01.2024).
• EXADAKTYLOS, Theofanis and RADAELLI, Claudio M, “Europeanisation”, Research Methods in European Union Studies, (ed.) Kennet Lynggaard, Ian Manners and Karl Löfgren, Palgrave Macmillan, London 2015, pp. 206-218.
• GRABBE, Heather, “How Does Europeanization Affect CEE Governance? Conditionality, Diffusion and Diversity”, Journal of European Public Policy, Volume 8, Number 6, 2001, pp.1013-1031.
• GREEK MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, “Ministry of Foreign Affairs Statement on Turkey’s New Illegal Navetex”, 21 July 2020, https://www.mfa.gr/usa/en/the-embassy/news/ministry-of-foreign-affairs-statement-on turkeys-new-illegal-navtex-21-july-2020.html, (15.02.2024).
• GURINI, Ferhat, “Turkey’s Unpromising Defence Industry”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 October 2020, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/82936, (11.02.2024).
• GÜMÜŞ, Abdurrahman, “Foreign Policy of the European Union towards Arab Uprisings,” Istanbul Gelisim University Journal of Social Sciences, Volume 9, Number 2, 2022, pp. 612-627. GÜREL, Ayla and LECORNU, Laura, “Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean Hydrocarbons”, GPoT Center, Istanbul 2013.
• İŞERI, Emre, “Turkey’s Entangled (Energy) Security Concerns and the Cyprus Question in the Eastern Mediterranean”, Greece and Turkey in Conflict and Cooperation: From Europeanization to De-Europeanization,(ed.) Alexis Heraclides, and Gizem Alioğlu Çakmak, Routledge, London 2019, pp. 257-270.
• KARADENİZ, Tulay and GUMRUKCU, Tuvan, “EU Needs Concrete Evidence from Turkey to Deem Gulen Network as Terrorist”, Reuters, 30 November 2017.
• KARBUZ, Sohbet, “Geostrategic Importance of East Mediterranean Gas Resources”, Energy Economy, Finance and Geostrategy, (ed.) André B. Dorsman, Volkan Ş. Ediger and Mehmet Baha Karan, Springer, Cham 2018, pp.237-255.
• KIRISÇI, Kemal and TOYGUR, İlke, “Turkey’s New Presidential System and a Changing West: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy and Turkey-West Relations”, Brookings Institute, Turkey Project Policy Paper, No. 15, 2019.
• KUBICEK, Paul, “Political Conditionality and European Union’s Cultivation of Democracy in Turkey”, Democratization, Volume 18, Number 4, 2011, pp. 910-931.
• KYRIS, George, “Europeanisation and Conflict Resolution: The Case of Cyprus”, IBEI Working Papers, 2013.
• LADRECH, Robert, “Europeanization of Domestic Politics and Institutions: The Case of France”, Journal of Common Market Studies, Volume 32, Number 1, 1994, pp. 69-88.
• LINDGAARD, Jacop, “EU Public Opinion on Turkish EU Membership: Trends and Drivers”, Feuture Online Paper, No. 25, 2018, https://feuture.uni-koeln.de/sites/feuture/user_upload/Online_Paper_No_25_final.pdf, (16.02.2024).
• MARTIN-RUSSU, Luana, Deforming the Reform: The Impact of Elites on Romania’s Post-Accession Europeanization, Springer, Cham 2022.
• MÜFTÜLER-BAÇ, Meltem, “Turkey’s Ambivalent Relationship with the European Union: To Accede or not to Accede”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Volume 13, Number 52, 2016, pp. 89-103.
• March 2021 (2001/235/EC)”, Brussels 24 March 2001, https://www.ab.gov.tr/files/AB_Iliskileri/Tur_En_Realitons/Apd/Turkey_APD_2001.pdf, (05.03.2024).
• TOMINI, Luca and GÜRKAN, Seda, “Contesting the EU, Contesting Democracy and Rule of Law in Europe. Conceptual Suggestions for Future Research”, Illiberal Trends and Anti-EU Politics in East Central Europe, (ed.) Astrid Lorenz and Lisa H. Anders, Palgrave Macmillan, Cham 2021.
• TSAROUHAS, Dimitris, “Greek-Turkish Economic Relations in a Changing Regional and International Context”, Greece and Turkey in Conflict and Cooperation: From Europeanization to De-Europeanization, (ed.) Alexis Heraclides and Gizem Alioğlu Çakmak, Routledge, London 2019, pp.194-209.
• TSEBELIS, George, “Decision Making in Political Systems: Veto Players in Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, Multicameralism and Multipartyism”, British Journal of Political Science, Volume 25, Number 3, 1995, pp. 289-325.
• TSULADZE, Lia, ABZIANIDZE, Nino, AMASHUKELI, Mariam and JAVAKHISHVILI, Lela,“De-Europeanization as Discursive Disengagement: has Georgia ‘Got Lost’ on its Way to European Integration?”, Journal of European Integration, Volume 46, Number 3, 2024, pp. 297-319.
• TURKISH MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, “Press Statement on the Continental Shelf Delimitation Agreement Signed Between Turkey and the TRNC, No: 216”, 21 September 2011, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-216_-21-september-2011_-press-statement-on-the-continental-shelf-delimitation-agreement-signed-between-turkey-and-the-trnc.en.mfa, (02.02.2024).
• YOUNGS, Richard and ZIHNIOĞLU, Özge, “EU Aid Policy in the Middle East and North Africa: Politicization and its Limits”, Journal of Common Market Studies, Volume 59, Number 1, 2021, pp. 126–142.
• “Akar Reiterates Criticism on Militarization of 16 Greek Islands”, Ekathimerini, (31.12.2020), https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/260800/akar-reiterates-criticism-on-militarization-of-16-greek-islands/, (07.03.2024).
• ANTONOPOULOS, Paul, “Turkish aggression against Greece accelerates despite coronavirus pandemic”, Greekcitytimes, 5 April 2020, https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/04/05/turkish-aggression-against-greece-accelerates-despite-coronavirus-pandemic, (08.03.2024).
• BUTLER, Daren and GÜMRÜKÇÜ, Tuvan, “Turkey Signs Maritime Boundaries Deal with Libya amid Exploration Row”, US News, 28 November 2019, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/papers/2019-11-28/turkey-and-libya-sign-deal-on-maritime-zones-in-the-mediterranean, (15.02.2024).
• EDWARDS, Christian, “Why are Far-right Parties on the March across Europe?” Cnn.com, 22 July 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/22/europe/europe-populism-far-right extreme-intl-cmd/index.html, (20.02.2024).
• “Egypt and Greece Sign Agreement on Exclusive Economic Zone”, Reuters, (06.08.2020), https://www.reuters.com/paper/us-egypt-greece-idUSKCN252216, (15.02.2024).
• “Erdogan will Open Halki Seminary in Exchange for Operation of Fethiye Mosque with Minaret Towers”, Neoskosmos, (17.02.2019), https://neoskosmos.com/en/2019/02/17/news/greece/erdogan-will-open-halki-seminary-in-exchange-for-minarets-at-fethiye-mosque/ , (01.02.2024).
• “Greece Issues Counter-Navtex”, Ekathimerini, (21.11.2020), https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/259434/greece-issues-counter-navtex-2/, (07.03. 2024).
• “Greek Soldiers Arrested in Turkey on Illegal Entry, Espionage Charges Released Pending Trial”, Daily Sabah, (14.08.2018), https://www.dailysabah.com/investigations/2018/08/14/greek-soldiers-trial, (11.02.2024).
• SMITH, Helena, “Confrontational Erdoğan Stuns Greek Hosts on Athens Visit”, The Guardian, 7 December 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/07/turkish-president-erdogan-to-makelandmark-visit-to-greece, (03.02.2024).
• STEVIS-GRIDNEFF, Matina, “Vigilantes in Greece Say “No More” to Migrants”, The New York Times, 7 March 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/europe/greece-turkey-migrants.html, (07.01.2024).
• STRAW, Jack, “Only a Partitioned Island Will Bring the Dispute between Turkish and Greek Cypriots to an End”, Independent, 1 October 2017, https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/cyrpus-turkish-greek-cypriots-partition-eu-international-community-should-act-a7976711.html, (07.03.2024).
• THE WORLD BANK, “GDP per Capita”, [undated(a)],https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=TR, (26.02.2024).
• THE WORLD BANK, “Turkey”, https://data.worldbank.org/country/turkey, [undated(b)], (26.02.2024).
• “Turkey Rejects European Parliament’s “Non-Binding” Resolution on Cyprus”, Trtworld.com, (27.11.2021), https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/turkey-rejects-european-parliament-s-non-binding-resolution-on-cyprus-41842, (08.02.2024).
• “Turkey won’t Be Ready to Join EU even in 10 Years”, B92.net, (17.03.2016), https://www.b92.net/eng/news/world.php?yyyy=2016&mm=03&dd=17&nav_id=97394, (17.01.2024).