Haber duyarlılığı ve teknik göstergeleri kullanan Bitcoin fiyat tahminine yönelik hibrit bir FinBERT-LSTM çerçevesi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Bitcoin’in saatlik ve günlük kapanış fiyatlarını tahmin etmek amacıyla duygu analizi ile derin öğrenmeyi entegre eden hibrit bir tahmin çerçevesi önermektedir. Haziran 2021-Kasım 2025 dönemine ait saatlik BTC/USD verileri, aynı dönemde yayımlanmış yaklaşık 326.000 Bitcoin ilişkili haber başlığı ile birleştirilmiştir. Finansal metinler üzerinde eğitilmiş transformer tabanlı FinBERT modeli kullanılarak her bir haber için [-1, +1] aralığında duygu skorları üretilmiş ve bu skorlar işlem hacmi, MACD ve RSI gibi teknik göstergelerle entegre edilmiştir. Oluşturulan birleşik özellik seti, zamansal bağımlılıkları modellemek amacıyla LSTM ağı ile analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlar, duygu destekli hibrit modellerin yalnızca teknik verilere dayalı modellere kıyasla RMSE, MAE, MAPE ve R² metriklerinde tutarlı biçimde üstün performans sağladığını göstermektedir. Saatlik hibrit model, 1.009 USD RMSE ve %99,23 R² değeri ile en yüksek performansı sergilemiştir. Ayrıca, 30 günlük örneklem dışı gerçek zamanlı testte 941 USD RMSE elde edilmiştir. Örneklem içi ve dışı sonuçların tutarlılığı, önerilen çerçevenin zamana karşı istikrarlı tahmin performansı sunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bitcoin fiyat tahmini
• kripto para piyasaları
• duygu analizi
• FinBERT
• derin öğrenme
• LSTM
• zaman serisi tahmini

A hybrid FinBERT-LSTM framework for Bitcoin price forecasting using news sentiment and technical indicators

Öz

This study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates sentiment analysis with deep learning to predict Bitcoin’s hourly and daily closing prices. Hourly BTC/USD market data spanning June 2021 to November 2025 were combined with approximately 326,000 Bitcoin-related news headlines published over the same period. Sentiment scores in the range of [-1, +1] were generated for each headline using FinBERT, a transformer-based language model trained on financial texts, and were subsequently integrated with technical indicators such as trading volume, MACD, and RSI. The resulting combined feature set was modeled using an LSTM network to capture temporal dependencies. Empirical results demonstrate that sentiment-enhanced hybrid models consistently outperform models based solely on technical indicators across RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R² metrics. The hourly hybrid model achieved the best performance, with an RMSE of 1,009 USD and an R² of 99.23%. Furthermore, a 30-day out-of-sample real-time evaluation yielded an RMSE of 941 USD. The consistency between in-sample and out-of-sample results indicates that the proposed framework maintains stable predictive performance over time.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bitcoin price forecasting
• cryptocurrency markets
• sentiment analysis
• FinBERT
• deep learning
• LSTM
• time series forecasting

Kaynakça

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