Türkiye’de sanayi üretim endeksinin zaman serileri yöntemi ile incelenmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, TÜİK tarafından 2005-2017 yılları arasında hesaplanan aylık sanayi üretim endeksi verilerine zaman serisi analizi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın amacı, sanayi üretim endeksini zaman serileri grafiği ile tanımlamak, endekse uygun zaman serisi modelini bulmak ve endeksin gelecek değerlerini tahmin etmektir. Bu amaçla, Box-Jenkins modellerinin uygulanabilmesi için serinin 1. dereceden fark ve 2. dereceden mevsimsel farkı alınarak seri durağan hale gelmiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda seriye en uygun model olarak SARIMA(1,1,1)(3,2,0)12 modeli belirlenmiştir. Bu model kullanılarak endeks serisinin 2018 yılı için aylık öngörü değerleri hesaplanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Zaman serileri,sanayi üretim endeksi,ARIMA yöntemi

Examination of industry production index in Turkey with time series method

Öz

In this paper, the time series analysis is conducted to the monthly industrial production index data calculated between 2005 and 2017 by TURKSTAT. The aim of the study is to define the industrial production index with the time series chart, to find the suitable time series model for the index and to forecast the future values of the index. For this purpose, we make the series stationary by taking both the first difference and the second seasonal difference of the series to perform the Box-Jenkins models. As a result of the analysis, SARIMA(1,1,1)(3,2,0)12 model is determined as the most suitable model for the series. Using this model, the forecast values for the months of 2018 of the index series are calculated.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Time series,industrial production index,ARIMA method

Kaynakça

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