UEFA Şampiyonlar Ligi'nde son 16 yolu: Grup aşamalarından yükselmek için anahtar oyun içi istatistikler

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 54, 853 - 868, 16.12.2025

Alp Kaan Kilci , Serhat Yalçıner , Nahit Özdayı , Gökhan Aydın

https://doi.org/10.31795/baunsobed.1566318

https://izlik.org/JA46MW34AC

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, UEFA Şampiyonlar Ligi (UCL) gruplarında hangi takımların son 16 tura ilerlediğini ayırt eden oyun içi istatistikleri belirlemektir. Araştırma, 2019/2020 ile 2021/2022 sezonları arasında oynanan 288 maçı (n=288) ve 57 takımı analiz etmiştir. Lineer ayırt edici analiz, takım ilerlemesini belirlemede her bir oyun içi istatistiğin katkısını ve sınıflandırmasını değerlendirmek için kullanılmıştır; karar ağaçları analizi ise kritik kesim noktalarını tanımlamada yardımcı olmuştur. Sonuçlar, ev sahibi olduğu maçları kazanmanın, deplasman maçlarını kazanmanın ve yenilen gol sayısının, bir takımın son 16 tura ilerlemesini etkili bir şekilde tahmin ettiğini göstermiştir. Özellikle, karar ağaçları analizi, en az iki ev sahibi galibiyeti ve en az bir deplasman galibiyeti olan takımların, eleme aşamasına ilerleme olasılığının çok yüksek olduğunu belirtmiştir. Ayrıca, sadece bir veya hiç ev sahibi galibiyeti olan takımların, ilerlemek için en az iki deplasman galibiyeti elde etmesi gerektiği ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayırt edici fonksiyon, grup aşamalarından son 16'ya geçen takımları doğru bir şekilde sınıflandırarak %94,8'lik yüksek bir doğruluk oranı göstermiştir. Ayrıca, grup aşamalarında dokuz veya daha az gol yiyen takımların da son 16'ya ilerlemede başarılı olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Şampiyonlar Ligi , Ayırt Edici Analiz , Grup Aşaması , Oyun İçi İstatistikler , Ağaç Analizi

Road to the round of 16 in UEFA Champions League: Key in-game statistics for advancing from the group stages

https://izlik.org/JA46MW34AC

Öz

The objective of this study was to identify the in-game statistics that help differentiate between the teams in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) group stage that advance to the round of 16.The research analyzed all matches (n=288) played among 57 teams in the UCL group stages from the 2019/2020 to 2021/2022 seasons. Linear discriminant analysis was utilized to evaluate the contribution and classification of each in-game statistic in determining team progression, while decision tree analysis helped identify critical cut-off points. Results showed that winning home games, winning away games, and the number of goals conceded effectively predicted a team's advancement to the last 16. Specifically, decision tree analysis indicated that teams with at least two home wins and at least one away win are highly likely to progress to the knockout stage. Additionally, teams with only one or no home wins must achieve at least two away wins to advance. The discriminant function demonstrated a high accuracy rate, correctly classifying 94.8% of the teams that moved on from the group stages to the last 16. Moreover, teams that conceded nine or fewer goals in the group stages were also successful in advancing to the round of 16.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Champions League , Discriminant Analysis , Group Stages , In-Game Statistics , Tree Analysis

Kaynakça

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