The validity of environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and green logistic: The case of Turkey

Öz

This study analyzed the relationship between logistics, per capita economic growth, and per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions within the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis from 1995 to 2016 in Turkey. The study uses a Fourier autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) cointegration test, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) long-term estimators, and Toda-Yamamoto (TY) and Fourier TY causality methods. According to Fourier ADL cointegration method, there is a long-run relationship between the series. The results of long run estimators demonstrate that the EKC hypothesis is valid for Turkey. However, the turning points obtained from long-run estimators lie outside the sample period. Therefore, Turkey has not yet reached the level of economic growth necessary to reduce CO2 emissions. In addition, an increase in logistic has a positive effect on per capita CO2 emissions in the long term. The empirical results reveal that an improvement in the transportation infrastructure conditions causes CO2 emissions. Finally, according to the Fourier TY method, there is a two-way causality relationship between economic growth-CO2 emissions, and logistic- CO2 emissions. To realize green logistic activities and reduce CO2 emissions, appropriate structural reforms are required in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Logistics
• Economic growth
• CO2 emissions

Çevresel Kuznets eğrisi hipotezinin geçerliliği ve yeşil lojistik: Türkiye örneği

Öz

Bu çalışma çevresel Kuznets eğrisi (ÇKE) hipotezi çerçevesinde 1995-2016 döneminde Türkiye’de lojistik, kişi başına düşen ekonomik büyüme ve kişi başına düşen karbondioksit (CO2) salımı arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada Fourier otoregresif gecikmesi dağıtılmış (ADL) eşbütünleşme testi, tam değiştirilmiş en küçük kareler (FMOLS), kanonik eşbütünleşme regresyonu (CCR) uzun dönem tahmincileri ve Toda-Yamamoto (TY) ve Fourier TY nedensellik yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme yöntemine göre seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönem tahmincisinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye’de ÇKE hipotezinin geçerli olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte, elde edilen sonuçlara göre dönüm noktaları, ilgili periyodunun dışındadır. Bu nedenle Türkiye, CO2 salımını azaltmak için gerekli ekonomik büyüme düzeyine henüz ulaşmamış durumdadır. Bunun yanında lojistik uzun dönemde kişi başına düşen CO2 salımını pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Ampirik sonuçlara göre ulaşım altyapısındaki gelişim CO2 salımına neden olmaktadır. Son olarak, Fourier TY yöntemine göre ekonomik büyüme- CO2 salımı ve Lojistik- CO2 salımı arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Yeşil lojistik faaliyetlerinin gerçekleştirilmesi ve CO2 salımının azaltılması için Türkiye’de uygun yapısal reformların gerçekleştirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Lojistik
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• CO2 Salımı

Kaynakça

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