TÜRKİYE’DE TARIM, SANAYİ VE HİZMET SEKTÖRLERİ İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: BOOTSTRAP TODA-YAMAMOTO NEDENSELLİK TESTİ

Öz

Birçok ülke zaman içerisinde ekonomik yapısal değişimler geçirmekte ve bu yapısal değişimler genellikle tarımdan sanayiye ve sanayiden de hizmet sektörüne doğrudur. Ekonomik yapısal değişim süreci, kişi başına gelir düzeyinin artmasıyla birlikte tarım sektörünün önemi azalırken sanayi sektörü ön plana çıkmaya başlar ancak sanayi sektörü yerini sürekli artış gösteren hizmet sektörüne bırakmaktadır. Gelişmekte olan ülke konumundaki Türkiye de ekonomik bir yapısal değişim yaşamaktadır. Buradan hareketle, çalışmanın amacı 1968-2020 döneminde ekonomik büyüme ile tarım, sanayi ve hizmet sektörü arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik test sonucuna göre tarım sektöründen ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunurken, ekonomik büyüme ile hizmet sektörü arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Öte yandan çalışma sonucuna göre sanayi sektörü ile ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuç ışığında politika yapıcı ve uygulayıcıların tarım ve hizmet sektörünü geliştirmeye yönelik vergi, sübvansiyon gibi birtakım teşvik ve yardım politikalarına ilişkin adım atmaları önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarım Sektörü
• Sanayi Sektörü
• Hizmet Sektörü
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Nedensellik Testi

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY, SERVICE SECTORS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: BOOTSTRAP TODA-YAMAMOTO CAUSALITY TEST

Öz

Many countries undergo economic structural changes over time, and these structural changes are generally from agriculture to industry and from industry to the service sector. While the importance of the agricultural sector decreases with the economic structural change process, the increase in the level of per capita income, the industrial sector begins to come to the fore, but the industrial sector retains its place in the service sector, which is constantly increasing. Turkey, which is a developing country, is also experiencing an economic structural change. From this perspective, the study examines the relationship between economic growth and agriculture, industry, and service sector in the period 1968-to 2020. According to the results of the Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality test used in the study, there is a one-way causality relationship between the agricultural sector and economic growth, while there is a bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and the service sector. However, according to the results of this study, there is no causal relationship between the industrial sector and economic growth. Considering the results obtained, we recommend that policymakers and practitioners take steps regarding some incentives and aid policies such as taxes and subsidies, to develop the agriculture and service sector.

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