The Effects of Skill-Based Factors on The Results of High-Level Volleyball Games

Abstract

Understanding the relationship of skill performance indicators to scores is helpful for athletes and coaches in gaining advantage through decision making and error control. The aim of this study was to determine the skill-based factors affecting the match results of the national teams participating in the CEV Tokyo Volleyball European Qualification 2020 competitions and to make predictions about the match result. A total of 30 national team’s matches of the 8 women (15 matches, 56 sets) and 8 men (15 matches, 59 sets) were analyzed. Data were obtained from the websites in the Confédération Européenne de Volleyball (CEV). The analyzed variables are: match result, gender, service aces, service errors, block points, attack points, attack errors, blocked attack, percentage of attack points (PAP), attack efficiency, reception errors, percentage of reception errors (PRE), percentage of positive receptions (PPR), percentage of excellent receptions (PER), break points, opponent errors. The results showed that blocked attack, PPR and break points were effective on the match result (p<0.05), break points and PPR variables contributed to the probability of winning the teams by 0.318 and 0.101 respectively while the blocked attack variable contributed to the probability of defeat by 0.465.

Keywords

• Volleyball
• Logistic Regression
• Match Result
• Prediction

Üst Düzey Voleybol Maçlarında Beceriye Dayalı Faktörlerin Maç Sonucuna Etkileri

Öz

Beceri performansı göstergelerinin puanlarla ilişkisini anlamak, karar verme ve hata kontrolü yoluyla avantaj sağlamada sporcular ve antrenörler için yararlıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, CEV Tokyo Voleybol Avrupa Elemeleri 2020 müsabakalarına katılan milli takımların maç sonuçlarına etki eden beceriye dayalı faktörleri belirlemek ve maç sonucuna yönelik tahminde bulunmaktı. Sekiz kadın (15 maç, 56 set) ve sekiz erkek (15 maç, 59 set) milli takımın toplam 30 maçı analiz edildi. Veriler, Avrupa Voleybol Konfederasyonu (CEV) bünyesindeki web sitelerinden alındı. Analiz edilen değişkenler şunlardır; maç sonucu, cinsiyet, servis direk puanı, servis hatası, blok sayısı, atak sayısı, atak hatası, bloklanan atak, atak puanı yüzdesi (APY), atak verimliliği, karşılama hatası, karşılama hatası yüzdesi (KHY), olumlu karşılama yüzdesi (OKY), mükemmel karşılama yüzdesi (MKY), atılan servis sonrası ralliyi kazanma, rakip hatası. Sonuçlar bloklanan atak, OKY ve atılan servis sonrası ralliyi kazanmanın maç sonucu üzerinde etkili olduğunu (p<0,05), atılan servis sonrası ralliyi kazanmanın ve OKY değişkenlerinin takımların kazanma olasılığına sırasıyla 0,318 ve 0,101’lik katkı yaptığını, bloklanan atak değişkeninin ise mağlubiyet olasılığına 0,465’lik katkı yaptığını gösterdi.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Voleybol
• Lojistik Regresyon
• Maç Sonucu
• Tahmin

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