Araştırma Makalesi
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Analysis of Unemployment Hysteresis by Gender in Turkey with Traditional and Fourier Tests

Yıl 2024, , 329 - 346, 29.02.2024
https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1414454

Öz

The expectation that rising unemployment rates after a structural shock will converge to natural unemployment rates has often not been met in the real economic world. In this study, the possible existence of the Unemployment Hysteresis Theory, which takes its place in the literature as a reaction to the Natural Rate Hypothesis, was tested for Türkiye. Possible hysterical properties of unemployment, that represents a unit root process, were tested with ADF, FADF, KFFADF unit root tests. The study used monthly data covering the 2014-2023 time period. In addition to the general unemployment, male unemployment and female unemployment data, the integrated rates of the potential laborforce were also included in the analysis by adding the data of individuals who are not looking for a job but are potentially able to work. As a result of the study, it is determined that there is a hysteresis effect on all variables used. Following the criticism that linear unit root tests were weak in detecting the hysteresis effect, tests were carried out with non-linear unit root tests and similar results were obtained.

Kaynakça

  • Acharya, V. V., & Richardson, M. (2009). Causes of the financial crisis. Critical Review, 21(2-3), 195-210. https://doi.org/10.1080/08913810902952903
  • Azazi, H. (2022). Analysis of gender-based unemployment hysteria in Turkey. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 10(3), 858.doi:10.15295/bmij.v10i3.2076
  • Ball, L., & Mankiw, N. G. (2002). The NAIRU in theory and practice. Journal of economic Perspectives, 16(4), 115-136. https//: 10.1257/089533002320951000
  • Barro, R. J. (2001). Economic growth in East Asia before and after the financial crisis. doi:10.3386/w8330
  • Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (1986). Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1, 15-78. https://doi.org/10.1086/654013
  • Bolat, S., Tiwari, A. K., & Erdayi, A. U. (2014). Unemployment hysteresis in the Eurozone area: evidences from nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test. Applied Economics Letters, 21(8), 536-540. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.872755
  • Bozoklu, S. Yilancı, V. & Gorus, M. S. (2020). Persistence in per capita energy consumption: a fractional integration approach with a fourier function. Energy Economics, 91, 1-12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104926
  • Brunello, G. (1990). Hysteresis and “the Japanese unemployment problem”: a preliminary investigation. Oxford Economic Papers, 42(3), 483-500. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041959
  • Camarero, M., & Tamarit, C. (2004). Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries. Economics Letters, 84(3), 413-417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2004.02.014
  • Coşkun, N. (2021). Test ing the Hysteresis in Youth Unemployment: The Case of Turkey. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 6(1), 97-112.
  • Demir, Y. (2009). 1960-1980 Dönemi Türk-Arap Ekonomik İlişkileri. Çağdaş Türkiye Tarihi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(18), 209-227.
  • Dickey, D.A. & W.A. Fuller (1981). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests, Economics Letters, 117, 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
  • Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review, 58, 1–17
  • Jensen, R. J. (1989). The causes and cures of unemployment in the Great Depression. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 19(4), 553-583. https://doi.org/10.2307/203954
  • Lee, H. Y., Wu, J. L., & Lin, C. H. (2010). Hysteresis in east asian unemployment. Applied Economics, 42(7), 887-898. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701720895
  • León–Ledesma, M. A. (2002). Unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU: a panel approach. Bulletin of Economic Research, 54(2), 95-103. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8586.00141
  • Mitchell, W. F. (1993). Testing for unit roots and persistence in OECD unemployment rates. Applied Economics, 25, 1489-1489.
  • Modigliani, F., & Papademos, L. (1975). Targets for monetary policy in the coming year. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1975(1), 141-165. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534063
  • Omay, T., Ozcan, B., & Shahbaz, M. (2020). Testing the hysteresis effect in the US state-level unemployment series. Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), 329-348. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2020.1759865
  • Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time. Economica, 254-281. https://doi.org/10.2307/2552025
  • Song, F. M., & Wu, Y. (1998). Hysteresis in unemployment: evidence from OECD countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 38(2), 181-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1062-9769(99)80111-2
  • Yılmaz, M. (2023). An Econometric Study on the Validity of the Unemployment Hysteresis Hypothesis in EU-15 and EU-28. OPUS Journal of Society Research, 20(Human Behavior and Social Institutions), 842-851. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1329033

Türkiye’de Cinsiyete Göre İşsizlik Histerisinin Geleneksel ve Fourier Testlerle Analizi

Yıl 2024, , 329 - 346, 29.02.2024
https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1414454

Öz

Yapısal bir şok sonrası artan işsizlik oranlarının yeniden doğal işsizlik oranlarına yakınsayacağı beklentisi reel iktisadi dünyada çoğu zaman karşılık bulamamıştır. Bu çalışmada Doğal Oran Hipotezine tepki olarak kendine literatürde yer edinen İşsizlik Histerisi Teorisi’nin Türkiye için olası varlığı test edilmiştir. Birim kök bir süreci ifade eden işsizliğin olası histerik özellikleri ADF, FADF, KFFADF birim kök testleri ile sınanmıştır. 2014-2023 zaman aralığını kapsayan aylık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışma, genel işsizlik oranları, erkek işsizlik oranları, kadın işsizlik oranları verilerinin yanında, iş aramayan ancak potansiyel olarak çalışabilecek durumda olan bireylerin de verilerini ekleyerek potansiyel işgücünün bütünleşik oranları da analize dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda kullanılan bütün değişkenler üzerinde histeri etkisinin varlığı tespit edilmektedir. Doğrusal birim kök testlerinin histeri etkisinin tespitinde zayıf kaldığı eleştirisi üzerine doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri ile de sınamalar yapılmış ve benzer sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Acharya, V. V., & Richardson, M. (2009). Causes of the financial crisis. Critical Review, 21(2-3), 195-210. https://doi.org/10.1080/08913810902952903
  • Azazi, H. (2022). Analysis of gender-based unemployment hysteria in Turkey. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 10(3), 858.doi:10.15295/bmij.v10i3.2076
  • Ball, L., & Mankiw, N. G. (2002). The NAIRU in theory and practice. Journal of economic Perspectives, 16(4), 115-136. https//: 10.1257/089533002320951000
  • Barro, R. J. (2001). Economic growth in East Asia before and after the financial crisis. doi:10.3386/w8330
  • Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (1986). Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1, 15-78. https://doi.org/10.1086/654013
  • Bolat, S., Tiwari, A. K., & Erdayi, A. U. (2014). Unemployment hysteresis in the Eurozone area: evidences from nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test. Applied Economics Letters, 21(8), 536-540. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.872755
  • Bozoklu, S. Yilancı, V. & Gorus, M. S. (2020). Persistence in per capita energy consumption: a fractional integration approach with a fourier function. Energy Economics, 91, 1-12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104926
  • Brunello, G. (1990). Hysteresis and “the Japanese unemployment problem”: a preliminary investigation. Oxford Economic Papers, 42(3), 483-500. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041959
  • Camarero, M., & Tamarit, C. (2004). Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries. Economics Letters, 84(3), 413-417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2004.02.014
  • Coşkun, N. (2021). Test ing the Hysteresis in Youth Unemployment: The Case of Turkey. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 6(1), 97-112.
  • Demir, Y. (2009). 1960-1980 Dönemi Türk-Arap Ekonomik İlişkileri. Çağdaş Türkiye Tarihi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(18), 209-227.
  • Dickey, D.A. & W.A. Fuller (1981). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests, Economics Letters, 117, 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
  • Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review, 58, 1–17
  • Jensen, R. J. (1989). The causes and cures of unemployment in the Great Depression. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 19(4), 553-583. https://doi.org/10.2307/203954
  • Lee, H. Y., Wu, J. L., & Lin, C. H. (2010). Hysteresis in east asian unemployment. Applied Economics, 42(7), 887-898. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701720895
  • León–Ledesma, M. A. (2002). Unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU: a panel approach. Bulletin of Economic Research, 54(2), 95-103. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8586.00141
  • Mitchell, W. F. (1993). Testing for unit roots and persistence in OECD unemployment rates. Applied Economics, 25, 1489-1489.
  • Modigliani, F., & Papademos, L. (1975). Targets for monetary policy in the coming year. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1975(1), 141-165. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534063
  • Omay, T., Ozcan, B., & Shahbaz, M. (2020). Testing the hysteresis effect in the US state-level unemployment series. Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), 329-348. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2020.1759865
  • Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time. Economica, 254-281. https://doi.org/10.2307/2552025
  • Song, F. M., & Wu, Y. (1998). Hysteresis in unemployment: evidence from OECD countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 38(2), 181-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1062-9769(99)80111-2
  • Yılmaz, M. (2023). An Econometric Study on the Validity of the Unemployment Hysteresis Hypothesis in EU-15 and EU-28. OPUS Journal of Society Research, 20(Human Behavior and Social Institutions), 842-851. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1329033
Toplam 23 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İstihdam
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Murat Ergül 0000-0003-2117-7561

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Şubat 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Şubat 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 4 Ocak 2024
Kabul Tarihi 14 Şubat 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024

Kaynak Göster

APA Ergül, M. (2024). Türkiye’de Cinsiyete Göre İşsizlik Histerisinin Geleneksel ve Fourier Testlerle Analizi. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 9(1), 329-346. https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1414454