Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Turkey's Imports: Threshold Value Regression Model
Öz
Determinants of imports are one of the most discussed topics in the foreign trade literature. This study explores the asymmetric relationship between the real exchange rate and imports for Turkey example. The paper employs monthly data spanning from 2013:01 to 2023:06, estimating classical least square estimation and Threshold Regression Models, subsequently comparing their outcomes. The findings highlighted that the relations between imports and real exchange rate are asymmetric. According to the least square estimation model, it was noted that the real exchange rate had a negative impact on imports, aligning with anticipated outcomes. In the threshold regression model, it was seen that movements in the real exchange rate positively affected imports in the model below the threshold, while exerting a negative effect in the model above the threshold. This finding was interpreted as increasing imports by buying the expectation that the exchange rate increases, which are below the internalizable level, may increase further. It is considered essential for policymakers to take into account asymmetric relationships when analyzing the relationships between imports and the exchange rate.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Turkey’s Import, Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate, Threshold Value Regression Model
Kaynakça
- Acaravcı, A., & Dağlı, Ö. (2021). Döviz kurundaki değişkenliğin Türkiye dış ticaretine etkisi. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 7(2), 213-232.
- Akpiliç, F., & Yurdakul, F. (2022). Reel döviz kurunun Türkiye imalat sanayi ihracatı üzerine etkisi: Doğrusal olmayan panel ARDL yaklaşımı. Maliye Dergisi, (182), 1-29.
- Aktaş, C. (2010). Türkiye’de reel döviz kuru ile ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki ilişkinin VAR tekniğiyle analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 6(11), 123-140.
- Akyıldız, H., & Eroğlu, Ö. (2004). Türkiye Cumhuriyeti dönemi uygulanan iktisat politikaları. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 9(1), 43-62.
- Altıntaş, H., Çetin, R., & Öz, B. (2011). The impact of exchange rate volatility on Turkish exports: 1993-2009. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2), 71-81.
- Arize, A. C. (1995). The effects of exchange-rate volatility on US exports: An empirical investigation. Southern Economic Journal, 62, 34-43.
- Arize, A. C. (1996). Real exchange-rate volatility and trade flows: The experience of eight European economies. International Review of Economics and Finance, 5, 187-205.
- Arize, A. C., & Shwiff, S. S. (1998). Does exchange-rate volatility affect import flows in G-7 countries? Evidence from cointegration models. Applied Economics, 30(10), 1269-1276.
- Asteriou, D., Masatcı, K., & Pilbeam, K. (2016). Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries. Economic Modelling, 58, 133-140.
- Bailey, M. J., Tavlas, G. S., & Ulan, M. (1986). Exchange-rate variability and trade performance: Evidence for the big seven industrial countries. Review of World Economics, 122(3), 466-477.
