Relationship between Tourism Incomes, Economic Growth, and Exchange Rate in Türkiye: Economic Growth Based Tourism Incomes in the Shadow of Covid-19
Öz
The main objective of this study is to empirically test the cointegrated relationship between tourism revenues, economic growth and exchange rate in Türkiye. The difference of this study from other studies is that it takes into account the shock effect by including the Covid-19 period in the analysis period. In our study, the ARDL model developed by Peseran, Shin, Smith is estimated using time series data for the period 2003Q1-2024Q3. The dependent variable is tourism revenues, while the independent variables are Gross Domestic Product and real exchange rate. In addition, a dummy variable is used to show the Covid-19 effect. The long-run coefficients are positive and significant. The long-run coefficient of the Covid-19 dummy variable is negative and significant as expected. Accordingly, a 1% increase in economic growth and exchange rate during the Covid-19 period increased tourism revenues by 1.49% and 1.25%, respectively, while shocks arising from Covid-19 decreased tourism revenues by 1.41%. Accordingly, 0.23% of the shocks to growth and exchange rate can be eliminated within the same period. Finally, the empirical findings suggest that the economic growth-based tourism hypothesis is valid for Turkiye.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Destekleyen Kurum
Makale çalışması kapsamında herhangi bir kurum tarafından destek alınmamıştır.
Proje Numarası
1
Etik Beyan
Çalışmanın tüm süreçlerinin araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygun olduğunu, etik kurallara ve bilimsel atıf gösterme ilkelerine uyduğumu beyan ederim.
Teşekkür
Çalışmam boyunca değerli katkılarını benden esirgemeyen sayın hocama teşekkürlerimi bir borç bilirim.
Kaynakça
- Aleaddinoğlu, F., & Rol, S. (2020). Covid-19 pandemic and its effects on tourism. Van Yüzüncü Yıl University Journal of Institute of Social Sciences, Special Issue on Epidemic Diseases, 233–258.
- Arıca, F., & Kaya, B. (2022). Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on the Turkish tourism sector. Political Economic Theory, 6(1), 102–118.
- Arslantürk, Y., Balcılar, M., & Özdemir, Z. A. (2011). Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 28(1–2), 664–671.
- Aslan, A. (2008). Econometric analysis on the relationship between economic growth and tourism in Türkiye. Erciyes University Journal of Institute of Social Sciences, 1(24), 1–10.
- Aslantürk, Y., & Atan, S. (2012). Dynamic relation between economic growth, foreign exchange and tourism incomes: An econometric perspective on Türkiye. Journal of Business Economics & Finance, 1(1), 30–37.
- Ayas, İ., & Çallı, D. S. (2022). An econometric approach to the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth with ARDL bounds test and time-varying ARDL techniques. Journal of Doğuş University, 23(2), 345–361.
- Bahar, O. (2006). The impact of tourism sector on Türkiye’s economic growth: VAR analysis approach. Management and Economics, 13(2), 138–150.
- Bahar, O., & Çelik İlal, N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus (Covid-19) on the tourism sector. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, 6(1), 126–139.
- Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jordá, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: The Spanish case. Applied Economics, 34(7), 877–884.
- Belloumi, M. (2010). The relationship between tourism receipts, real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Tunisia. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(5), 550–560.
