Population Ageing and Growth Dynamics in BIMSTEC Economies

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 381 - 413, 28.02.2026

Esra Cebeci Mazlum

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1756950

https://izlik.org/JA37ZD24MF

Öz

This study examines the impact of population ageing on economic growth in BIMSTEC countries using annual panel data from 1990 to 2022. Economic growth is represented by the annual growth rate (%) as the dependent variable. The proportion of individuals aged 65 and over in the total population (%), representing the elderly population, is taken into account as the independent variable. Life expectancy (years) and the urbanization rate (%) are included as control variables in the analysis. Gengenbach et al. (2016) cointegration test was applied to determine the long-term relationship between the variables. The results show that there is a significant cointegration relationship between the analyzed variables. The findings of the DOLSMG estimator used to determine the coefficients for the long-term relationships reveal that the urbanization rate variable has a negative effect on economic growth. On the other hand, the variables of life expectancy and the elderly population rate are observed to have positive effects on economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Age Structure , Population , Economic Growth , BIMSTEC

BIMSTEC Ekonomilerinde Nüfusun Yaşlanması ve Büyüme Dinamikleri

https://izlik.org/JA37ZD24MF

Öz

Bu çalışma, BIMSTEC ülkelerinde nüfusun yaşlanmasının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini 1990-2022 dönemine ait yıllık panel veriler aracılığıyla incelemektedir. Ekonomik büyüme, bağımlı değişken olarak yıllık büyüme oranı (%) ile temsil edilmiştir. Bağımsız değişken olarak ise yaşlı nüfusu temsilen 65 yaş ve üzeri bireylerin toplam nüfus içindeki oranı (%) dikkate alınmıştır. Analize, kontrol değişkeni olarak beklenen yaşam süresi (yıl) ile yıllık kentsel nüfus artış oranı (%) dahil edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi belirlemek amacıyla Gengenbach vd. (2016) eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, analiz edilen değişkenler arasında anlamlı bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönemli ilişkilere yönelik katsayıların belirlenmesinde kullanılan DOLSMG tahmincisine ait bulgular, kentsel nüfus artış oranı değişkeninin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumsuz bir etkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Buna karşılık, beklenen yaşam süresi ve yaşlı nüfus oranı değişkenlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif etkileri gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yaş Yapısı , Nüfus , Ekonomik Büyüme , BIMSTEC

Kaynakça

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