Exploring The Twin-Deficit Hypothesis by Considering the Energy Prices in Türkiye: The Evidence from the Rolling Window and the Spectral Causality Analyses

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 209 - 231, 28.02.2025

İlkay Güler

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1586293

Öz

Worsening the budget and current account balance has been one of the government’s most urgent issues, especially since the 1980s. Within this context, various studies have been conducted to find the accurate solution and whether there is a connection between the two unpleasant macroeconomic problems. The study aims to address the twin-deficit hypothesis at the full and sub-samples, with different frequencies, by employing the advanced causality test approaches in the case of the Turkish economy by considering energy prices. The Toda-Yamamoto, the Rolling-Window, and Breitung-Candelon Causality analyses are performed on the monthly data spanning from 2009:01 to 2024:08. When examining the evidence on the entire sample, the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis is verified, and energy prices induce the budget deficit. However, the current account deficit and energy prices affect the budget defict in the short run due to the outcome of the spectral analysis. The Rolling window discloses the causality relationship among the variables at the varied time intervals. The final testament of the study approves the Ricardian Equaliance in the case of Türkiye and rejects the twin-deficit hypothesis. The policy actions are recommended for the policy-makers based on the evidence obtained in the study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Budget Deficit, Current Account Deficit, Energy Prices, Macroeconomics, Twin-Deficit

Etik Beyan

This study which does not require ethics committee approval and/or legal/specific permission complies with the research and publication ethics.

İkiz Açık Hipotezini Türkiye'deki Enerji Fiyatlarını Dikkate Alarak Araştırmak: Kayan Pencere ve Spektral Nedensellik Analizlerinden Elde Edilen Kanıtlar

Öz

Bütçe ve cari işlemler dengesinin kötüleşmesi, özellikle 1980’lerden beri hükümetlerin en acil konularından biri olmuştur. Bu bağlamda, iki tatsız makroekonomik sorun arasında bir bağlantı olup olmadığı ve doğru çözümü bulmak için çeşitli çalışmalar yapılmıştır. Bu çalışma, ikiz açık hipotezini Türkiye ekonomisi örneğinde enerji fiyatlarını dikkate alarak gelişmiş nedensellik testi yaklaşımlarını kullanarak tam ve alt örneklemlerde, farklı frekanslara ele almayı amaçlamaktadır. Toda-Yamamoto, Kayan Pencere ve Breitung-Candelon Nedensellik analizleri 2009:01-2024:08 dönemini kapsayan aylık veriler üzerinden gerçekleştirilmiştir. Tüm örneklem üzerinde kanıtlar incelendiğinde, Ricardocu Denklik hipotezi doğrulanmakta ve enerji fiyatları bütçe açığını tetiklemektedir. Ancak, spektral analizin sonucuna göre cari açık ve enerji fiyatları kısa vadede bütçe açığını etkilemektedir. Kayan pencere, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini farklı zaman aralıklarında ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışmanın nihai sonucu, Türkiye örneğinde Ricardocu Eşitliği onaylamakta ve ikiz açık hipotezini reddetmektedir. Çalışmada elde edilen kanıtlara dayanarak politika yapıcılar için politika eylemleri önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bütçe Açığı, Cari İşlemler Açığı, Enerji Fiyatları, Makroekonomik, İkiz Açık

Etik Beyan

Etik komite onayı ve/veya yasal/özel izin gerektirmeyen bu çalışma, araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygundur.

Kaynakça

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