Türkiye Ekonomisinde Cari Açığın Finansmanı: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 553 - 572, 30.06.2025

Erkan Ağaslan

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1619017

Öz

Cari açık, son yıllarda Türkiye ekonomisinin en önemli sorunlarından biri haline gelmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisinin üretim yapısının ithalata bağımlı olması ve sermaye malları, yarı mamuller ve hammaddelerin toplam ithalatın büyük bir çoğunluğunu oluşturması bu sorunun büyümesine yol açmıştır. Cari işlemler açığının sürekli açık vermesi, finansmanını son derece önemli hale getirmektedir. Bu çalışmada cari açığın finansmanını açıklamak için Pesaran, Shin ve Smith (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak kısa ve uzun dönem etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Model tahmininde 2005Q4 - 2024Q2 dönemi için Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'ndan elde edilen Cari Açık, Resmi Rezervler, Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru, Özel Sektör Kredi Büyümesi, Dış Borç ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu değişkenler ve gecikmeli değerleri cari açığın finansmanında önemli arz etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cari İşlemler Hesabı , ARDL Sınır Testi , FDI , Resmi Rezervler , Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru

Financing the Current Account Deficit in the Turkish Economy: ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Öz

In recent decades, the current account deficit has become one of the most critical problems in the Turkish economy. The fact that the production structure of the Turkish economy is dependent on imports and that capital goods, semi-finished products and raw materials constitute the majority of total imports has led to the growth of this problem. The persistent deficit in the current account deficit makes its financing extremely important. To explain the funding of the current account deficit, the ARDL bounds test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) is used in this study to analyze the short and long-run effects. Current Account Deficit, Official Reserves, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Private Sector Credit Growth, External Debt, and Foreign Direct Investment variables obtained from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey for 2005Q4 - 2024Q2 are used in the model estimation. As a result of the analysis, it is concluded that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. These variables and their lagged values are essential in financing the current account deficit.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Current Account , ARDL Bounds Test , FDI , Official Reserves , Real Effective Exchange Rate

Kaynakça

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