Time‑Frequency and Causal Dynamics Between Green Logistics, Environmental Factors, and China’s Transportation Sector: A Fourier Toda–Yamamoto and Cross‑Wavelet Approach

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3, 1221 - 1240, 29.10.2025

Özge Demirkale

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1693686

Öz

This study examines causality relationships between the financial performance of China's transport industry and the selected green logistics, environmental, and macroeconomic indicators. Based on the monthly data spanning from January 2010 to December 2020, logarithm of Shanghai Transportation Index (LSZSE) is designated as the explanatory variable, while green logistics performance (LGRL), per capita income (LGDP), CO₂ emissions arising from transport activities (LTCO₂), and the percentage of renewable consumption of energy (LNREC) are employed as explanatory variables. In order to determine the properties of stationarity of the series, the unit root test with the Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller (Fourier ADF) that is robust to smooth structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics is employed. Based on the integration results, the Fourier Toda–Yamamoto (FTY) causality test is employed to test for causal relationships among variables of different orders of integration. The empirical test reveals a statistically significant one-way causality running from green logistics (LGRL) to sector performance of transportation (LSZSE) at the 10% level of significance. The cross-wavelet analysis demonstrated that the interactions between the series vary across long- and short-term scales, exhibiting synchronous or lagged structures depending on the period. This may be understood as that advancement in sustainability logistic activities will be able to influence investor sentiment and market worthiness within the industry.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Green logistics , SZSE Transportation Index , Environmental Efficiency , Renewable Energy , Fourier Toda–Yamamoto , Wavelet

Yeşil Lojistik, Çevresel Faktörler ve Çin Ulaştırma Sektörü Arasındaki Zaman‑Frekans ve Nedensel Dinamikler: Fourier Toda–Yamamoto ve Çapraz Dalgacık Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışma, Çin ulaştırma sektörünün finansal performansı ile seçilmiş yeşil lojistik, çevresel ve makroekonomik göstergeler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini incelemektedir. Ocak 2010–Aralık 2020 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak Shanghai Ulaştırma Endeksi’nin logaritması (LSZSE) bağımlı değişken, yeşil lojistik performansı (LGRL), kişi başına gelir (LGDP), ulaştırma kaynaklı CO₂ emisyonları (LTCO₂) ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketim oranı (LNREC) ise bağımsız değişkenler olarak modele dâhil edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlık özelliklerini belirlemek amacıyla, düzgün yapısal kırılmalara ve doğrusal olmayan dinamiklere duyarlı Fourier Genişletilmiş Dickey–Fuller (Fourier ADF) birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Bütünleşme derecelerine ilişkin bulgular temel alınarak, farklı bütünleşik mertebelerdeki değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini analiz etmek için Fourier Toda–Yamamoto (FTY) nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, %10 önem düzeyinde yeşil lojistik performansından (LGRL) ulaştırma sektörü performansına (LSZSE) tek yönlü bir nedensellik akışı olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca çapraz dalgacık analizi, seriler arasındaki etkileşimlerin uzun ve kısa dönem ölçeklerinde farklılık sergilediğini; döneme bağlı olarak eşzamanlı (in‑phase) ya da gecikmeli (lagged) yapılar ortaya koyduğunu kanıtlamıştır. Bu sonuçlar, sürdürülebilir lojistik faaliyetlerindeki ilerlemenin sektörün piyasa değerini ve yatırımcı duyarlılığını etkileyebileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yeşil Lojistik , SZSE Taşımacılık İndeksi , Çevresel Etki , Yenilenebilir Enerji , Fourier Toda–Yamamoto , Dalgacık Analizi

Kaynakça

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